Originally Posted by F Paulsson
For those saying that we should raise the flop, explain why. And that explanation should include our fold equity and both his calling range and folding range versus a raise. Bonus points for including our equity versus what we fold out as well as our equity versus that which he does not fold.
I'lll give it a shot It's probably wrong, but here's my thought process:
Only 10 hands is not really a read at all, but the 44/11 says there's at least a possibility that he's passive pre-flop.
I'm going to say he calls in the cutoff with any broadway, any pair, and some random suited garbage, roughly the top 33% of hands.
I don't see why we need to give him credit for for anything more than a c-bet by donking the flop, so we are at 69% equity versus that range.
Let's say a raise folds out the naked C-bets. His range is now 99-AA, AJ+, maybe Kings down to K9, Queens down to Q9. Probably some crummy low diamond suited connectors, but I can't remember how to add those on PokerStove . That range is full of made hands. Sets, pairs, straights. Pokerstove says we are at 50.45% equity vs. that range.
We're in pretty good shape now. Fold equity is nice, but I think I actually want more money in this hand at this point, because I feel at worse we are flipping and more likely we are giving the opponent too much credit for his range at this level. The issue is that we're not going to be in pretty good shape on the turn. We're probably going to be in amazing shape or awful shape and face a much tougher decision. When I'm faced with that situation, my reaction is that I want to buy my next two cards right now, not pay for one and then try to figure out if I want to pay for the last one in a tricky spot (or let him decide if he wants to pay for another one if a scare card hits the board and he's playing a bad one pair).