Originally Posted by Newschool
Well, I know that hero doesn't "feel" like he will get called by worse; but, I disagree. In my opinion there is a possibility of some Jx in villains range. Calling over all is seems fine as I know we are kind of in a WA/WB spot.
My concern is having only 1/3 pot left on river. This means villain probably won't make any mistakes and will give up his bluffs. He benefits seeing the river, and we have no upside there. So, that's why I'd consider getting the money in on turn.
Assume we call, are you planning on calling all rivers?
say he had Jx, why would he call off a shove on the flop.. but then check fold when we flat call the flop IP?
calling puts more in the pot with us having less behind making it more likely he will call off with 2nd pair, gutshots, open enders etc.
lol, and villains drunk.. pretty sure he doesn't care too much about our stack size and if he plays drunk probably doesn't play enough poker to not make mistakes here anyway.
+ we're IP, so villain isn't seeing the river without calling off.. but do we not benefit a cheap showdown? (not to say i'm not shoving because I seriously doubt he ever checks a better hand OOP on the turn)
Originally Posted by ManicLombax
Maybe. If he's got total air, he may not always jam the turn if I call, figuring I won't fold much for a 1/3 pot size bet if I already called the flop. That's why I was wondering if 4-betting smaller would have been better. If I 4-bet to say $11, then he leads out for $15, now I can call on the flop and stacks are closer to $40 on the turn, which seems better. But if I 4-bet small I could also end up with 2 or even 3 callers, which is clearly not what I want with QQ.
On the other hand I've already said this guy is semi-drunk and aggressive, so he may be getting it in on the turn almost no matter what.
but he'd fold to your shove anyway if he had air -.-
and 4bets are supposed to be smaller vs regs in cash games so we can balance our bluffs against them, vs we can size them as big as we see fit since fish don't really care too much about our hand.
if the flop came J73 and he lead out for this same amount, wouldn't you be happy you made it that size?
sizing was fine, just call it off for 2 streets dude.