I had positions mixed up, thought BB was the competent player and BTN was the fish. I don't hate just getting it in on the flop with him given his range may be significantly wider and if he has a bunch of trashy pairs then we can jump to like %60 equity, but in general this is a spot you should really be thinking less about how many draws your opponent has, and more about your actual equity.
My problem is that we don't have enough hands on BB to know he's
that bad and flats J8o and similar hands preflop, which would tilt our decision to just stuffing money in on the flop rather than waiting for a safe turn. If he has something tighter, like my range above, flatting is far superior. Remember the range I put was for his donk, not for his continuing range vs our raise. The equity of that range will be even stronger.
The point is this: the more villain bet/shoves his draws and made hands alike (and the more weighted towards strong draws/made hands), the more inclined we should be to flat flop and raise(usually raise/fold) or bet turn. Flipping that around, the more villain bet/calls his draws and made hands, and the weaker his overall range, the more inclined we should be to raise the flop, obviously.
As a side note, villain sometimes has hands we actually want to have him hit on the turn - in this example, all his 8x draws.
Ok but we have the equity now to raise profitably, if we just flat aren't we just letting BB draw cheaply ?
He's still paying to see the turn. It's still unprofitable for him to be donking a flush draw (given he's paying to draw, and has zero fold equity against us, therefore just putting money in bad). We could charge him
more, but we may be pushing a somewhat thin edge, and the times he shoves on us, we're ba/wb again, ie we have kind of shitty equity.
Consider one of his crappier draws, 6h7h: we're %54 on the flop, %72 on a safe turn.
What about T8o? We have a nice %67 equity on the flop (whopping %78 turn), but what cards improve his hand? A queen? That's implied odds FOR us. A 7? Are we paying that card off if he donk shoves or something? Are we value betting it when ch to? ofc not.
The hands that we're actually happy to stack flop against (AJ/QJ/QT) for the most part still pay off turn/river bets, albeit with
much worse equity.
Also giving BTN great implied odds to loads of hands that we really don't mind folding to our big raise?
Who says we're paying him off? If we flat flop, turn comes a heart, checks to him and he bets, are we paying him off? What about an 8? J? K?
and there are a ton of cards on the turn where we don't know if we're ahead / behind and what to do ?
There are quite a few bad cards, but again a lot of those aren't as bad as you think. It's a little hard to explore every turn option on various cards (especially 3-way), but for the most part just play some poker. Pin ranges on your opponents and play accordingly.
