$25 NLHE Full Ring: JJ as an overpair on a FD board against a NIT and a fish

Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: JJ as an overpair on a FD board against a NIT and a fish

full tilt poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 650045
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $61.01
CO: $40.39
BTN: $8.40
SB: $14.75
BB: $30.19
Hero (UTG): $25.00
UTG+1: $28.85
MP1: $23.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with J
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J
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Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 1 fold, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.00) T
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5
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3
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(5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.25, MP1 calls $2.25, MP2 calls $2.25, CO folds, SB folds

Turn: ($10.75) 2
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(3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $6.50, MP2 calls $6.50, Hero folds


My notes

View attachment JJ as an overpair on a FD board against a NIT and a fish.doc
 
Numbuh 0ne

Numbuh 0ne

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There's no good way to play jj, especially when u get for callers on a 3x, nothing wrong with a fold here imo, feels like a set
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Why'd we check the turn? QQ+ usually 3bet pf, sets usually raise the two toned flop, 2h isn't a terribly scary card. Tx, fd's, 77+ are all calling the flop, only some weird hands improve w the 2h.
 
ChuckTs

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Tx, 99-66 and 44, 65/54/34s and flush draws still call a turn bet, maybe even A5/A2/A3 too, and as sly mentioned most sets/QQ+ would have put in more action by now so we can discount them somewhat, and all that adds up to us having what is pretty clearly the best hand almost all of the time. I value bet the turn almost always.
 
F Paulsson

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Tx, 99-66 and 44, 65/54/34s and flush draws still call a turn bet, maybe even A5/A2/A3 too, and as sly mentioned most sets/QQ+ would have put in more action by now so we can discount them somewhat, and all that adds up to us having what is pretty clearly the best hand almost all of the time. I value bet the turn almost always.
... and when I don't, I'm most certainly not folding to a bet.

Checking, among other things, serves as an inducer for others to bet. When you check, their betting range isn't the same as when you bet and they raise. It's much, much wider. So you can't really check/fold an overpair on this board. This came up in the forum discussion of the Stox video Chuck did together with me awhile back: Don't check/fold or bet/fold if there's a significant risk that your opponent may bet or raise for value with a worse hand than yours.

Check/folding or bet/folding when your opponent must either have a stronger hand than you do or a complete bluff can be alright if you think he rarely bluffs. But if there is a significant number of combos that can legitimately be bet or raised for value (often due to you underrepresenting your hand) then it's a huge mistake to check/fold or bet/fold. The hand above is a good example of this; your opponent can easily be betting for value with JT, AT, and even protecting his 99 versus overcards. This is not a good spot to check/fold JJ.

Similarly, bet/folding a hand like 33 on a 3-7-8-K-T board is also a huge problem. Yeah, when he raises the river, it sure looks like he might have J9. But he can also have T8 and KT on top of the bluff range. The range you beat grows by a whole lot if there are parts of his valuerange in it.

You want to check/fold and bet/fold when your opponent can't really be bluffing - and that's fine. But then make damned sure that your "never-bluffs" opponent can't be value-raising you with worse than what you have.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I just read your analysis of the hand. Given your read on MP1, check/folding is absolutely correct. However, I think your read is off. If he's really nitty, then yes - AT probably isn't in his range. But what about JTs and T9s, and 77-99?

There are 9 combos of sets. And while he may not play 77-99 (combined, twice as likely as a set) this way 100% of the time, I don't think you can necessarily discount those hands more because of his actions than you can the fact that he just flatted a flopped set on a twotone fiveway flop.

Your thinking is mostly correct based on your reads, but you're overestimating the strength of his range, in my opinion.

Having said that, you must also not underestimate the value in having a fish with you in the pot. Yeah, some of the time you'll be up against a set and lose a turn bet (I think you can very often bet/fold the turn and check/fold the river if you're called), but what you stand to gain isn't just the money that you get from the nit, but the money you get from the fish, too. Your implied odds are much higher than normal when you have the fish in there with you. Be much less inclined to fold, because he's providing extra padding.
 
Stu_Ungar

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So are we saying c/c the turn and c/f the river?
 
Stu_Ungar

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Do you think a nit would bet a FD on the turn if checked to him? Thats going to have a big impact on my calling range.
 
F Paulsson

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Do you think a nit would bet a FD on the turn if checked to him? Thats going to have a big impact on my calling range.
That depends a whole lot on the nit. Preflop stats don't necessarily say much about how they play their (tight) range postflop. It also depends on how well he knows the fish behind him.

If this was me at my regular stakes and another reg had just checked to me on the turn, I'd bet all of my flushdraws pretty much always, even with the fish behind me. I can expand on that a bit if you want to know the rationale behind it.

But my default line on the turn, if I were you, would be to bet/fold. Against the nit, that is. I may very well bet/call or bet/shove versus the fish, depending on the flavor of fish we're talking about. The thing about the nit is that while they can of course bluff occasionally, that frequency goes way way way down (in general) when it's a three-way pot. Assuming he has trash in his range to begin with that he wants to bluff (fairly unlikely), he now needs to take his chances versus both you and the fish. For that reason, I think you can trust him to have it when he raises - which I don't expect will be very often at all.

Your bet may make him fold a lot of the hands you beat, and while that seems like a waste of a valuebet, remember that you're valuebetting against the fish, too - and he WILL call with a lot of stuff you beat.
 
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