$25 NLHE Full Ring: JJ overpair facing fish shove

$25 NL HE Full Ring: JJ overpair facing fish shove

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 42/17/2

What is our turn line here vs this fish, I think his range could be here 89,910, A10 or a heart draw tbh, what do you guys feel about his range and whats your line?

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $5 (20 bb)
BB: $14.55 (58.2 bb)
Hero (UTG): $25 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $31.90 (127.6 bb)
MP1: $53.85 (215.4 bb)
MP2: $21.75 (87 bb)
MP3: $3.95 (15.8 bb)
CO: $4.55 (18.2 bb)
BTN: $18.45 (73.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with J:spade: J:heart:
Hero raises to $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75, 6 folds

Flop: ($2.60) 4:spade: 8:heart: T:diamond: (3 players)
Hero bets $1.75, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $1.75

Turn: ($6.10) 2:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, MP1 raises to $51.35 and is all-in, Hero ??

God you bet small. This spot kinda sucks, but I'd expect the fish to try and be a little more subtle with a set. I call here, and while I'm not super duper excited, I expect to see some gutshots that turned flush draws, and some AT type stuff. Call and embrace the variance.

Hand 0: 50.643% { JJ }
Hand 1: 49.357% { JJ-TT, 88, 44, ATs, Jh9h, T8s, 9h7h, 6h5h, ATo }

this was my exact thinking, surely he wouldnt play this way with a set or a strong hand, so its fine to call yeah?

I think some wierd random 2pairs could also be in this guys range, like 24,84, maybe even T2, 84,82 if thier soooted. I have seen other fish take this line with 2 pair before, call ip make 2pair or better then shove. Im sure he could be doing it with worse sometimes also. Without reads I suppose it's really close for me. I might take some time to pull up the hand replayer to see if he's lost any big pots recently, or what he has been showing down in big pots to sway my decision. Or you can just call and then take a note.

urgh, I had a similar spot in 25NL on fulltilt with KK this morning, similar pattern, although villain re raised, I re raised again (about $12 in pot pre flop), villain calls and calls my cbet on J rag board, I shove on turn (ridiculously loose fish, expecting a call with TPTK, worse even, no major draws on board), villain calls, shows AK, river comes A, I was doing my nut, lost about $35.

Was gonna post hand history, but not long on FT didn't know you couldn't email for HH? so I've only just clicked the option to save

I think aswell as a set I think has been said could be looking 9h7h A10.

I don't use HUD, a quick google I see what VPIP stands for, PFR is obvious, what is AP? I tried googling but all I get is the absolute poker scandal

SPCotter said:

what is AP? I tried googling but all I get is the absolute poker scandal

Click to expand...

you mean AF. AF = aggression factor. it is a ratio in which an opponent bets and/or raises compared to calling/folding. but there are tons of exceptions and considerations to take into account when looking at this. so basically, its a mystical number that no one 100% truly understands but is seen as an integral stat when making a tough decision.

Yeah I do, mistyped that horribly, cheers!