$25 NLHE Full Ring: JJ OOP

$25 NL HE Full Ring: JJ OOP

Villain is 10/6/3, but aggression frequency 19% over 85 hands or so. Fold cbet 100% but that's only 1 instance as he doesn't call. Steal of 25% so he may be positionally aware.

Combination of the flop and being OOP is kinda yucky; what's our plan for the hand?



poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: 17.6 bb
BB: 134.2 bb
MP1: 103 bb
Hero (MP2): 100 bb
MP3: 135.6 bb
CO: 111.4 bb
BTN: 20 bb

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with J J
MP1 folds, Hero raises to 4 bb, MP3 folds, CO calls 4 bb, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: (9.4 bb) K 9 7 (2 players)
Hero ??

I'd bet out there for sure. Unless he has AK you're probably ahead.

If called, you could check the turn unless you think he'd take that as license to fire regardless of his hand. I have some trouble in these turn spots (to double barrel or not to double barrel) so will let those with more confidence address that street.

Two options right? Check or bet. JJ is with 1 overcard is too good a hand to give up vs one caller. 85 hands isn't a huge sample of hands but we have to go base our actions on some sort of read so it will have to do.

His Vip and pfr are pretty tight. His AF is highish, but not ridiculous, but his AFq is comparatively low to which which is compatable with the high fold to CB stat. Also, players this tight generally adhere pretty well to the GAP CONCEPT. Since he cold called he's likely to have a strong but not monster hand. He probably would have rr'd with AA, KK, QQ and AK. The hands which he Cold Calls with are likely to be 88-JJ, AQ, AJs and perhaps high suited connectors like TJ and JQ.

This may be a WAWB situation. You want to control the size of the pot but I still think a moderate CB is in order if for no other reason than to simplify future decisions. A check might induce a bet from a hand like AQ, or TT which would be indistinguishable from the real deal. If he reraises you know your beat. If he floats it I'd check it down and call a river bet.

Yeah, I looked at this some more and plunked some numbers into Pokerstove. I think because of the tightness of his stats I should be ignoring the straight possibilities because I don't know that he calls with middle connectors, and even less likely with gapped connectors (T8). Flush draw is a small part of his range too and even though it's not an Ace on the flop the King hits his range almost as well.

In other words I think don't need to protect my hand as much as I thought at first which makes it more of a wa/wb situation than it would be against looser callers. Added to the situation is that I was playing 17/9/8 at the table so looking like an postflop aggressive donk so my bets may be taken less seriously.

i agree that you should have definately fired another bullet. chances are you were ahead.

you never know he could of had a smaller pair like 10s or 9s and thought you missed the flop so he called your cbet.

Even though you are OOP there, I would def bet out. Bet around $1.50-$1.75 (6-7 BBs).

I think you should raise to 5BB preflop rather than just 4.

It would give you an SPR of about 8.5 rather than 10.

Do you know his flop bet %? If he routinely raises hands that are checked to him then its an excellent flop to check raise.

If its low then you are giving him a potential free card by checking. I think you gain info that a K hasnt helped him, but then if an A or Q comes.. where are you now?

So I think you have to bet out unless you feel confident of being able to CR.

Standard line here for me is to bet flop and ch/f turn. 10/6s dont float with less than top pair like ever. They also rarely try to take this flop away with worse than JJ if u check to them.

Stu_Ungar said:

I think you should raise to 5BB preflop rather than just 4.

It would give you an SPR of about 8.5 rather than 10.

Do you know his flop bet %? If he routinely raises hands that are checked to him then its an excellent flop to check raise.

If its low then you are giving him a potential free card by checking. I think you gain info that a K hasnt helped him, but then if an A or Q comes.. where are you now?

So I think you have to bet out unless you feel confident of being able to CR.

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He's only 10% ViP. What kind of draw do you think he could have? QJ and JT are the only ones I could see him having and they're both gut shots. I wouldn't be too worried about the free card but I still like the 1/2 pot probe just to see where he's at. If an A or Q did appear I'd be VERY cautious.

Four Dogs said:

He's only 10% ViP. What kind of draw do you think he could have? QJ and JT are the only ones I could see him having and they're both gut shots. I wouldn't be too worried about the free card but I still like the 1/2 pot probe just to see where he's at. If an A or Q did appear I'd be VERY cautious.

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Damn!!

I must be getting tired because for some reason I thought he had a 19% PFR!!

I don't know now.. at first I thought well 10% that must have hit him hard. But as he didn't re-raise preflop, you are ahead of all pairs that he wouldnt 3-bet PF (I dont think he would flat QQ)

AK AQs can probably be taken out too so you have over 60% equity closer to 70 if you widen his range for position.

It has to be c-bet, and as long as an A/Q doesn't appear on the turn or river then it def has to see a showdown.

Stu_Ungar said:

I think you should raise to 5BB preflop rather than just 4.

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But there's a variety of stack sizes behind me. When I'm this far out I don't usually think in terms of SPR.

NineLions said:

But there's a variety of stack sizes behind me. When I'm this far out I don't usually think in terms of SPR.

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There isnt really a variety.

The button and the SB have around 20BB.

Everyone else has more than you, which means that its 100BB.

If the SB or Button call, then its going to be an easy flop decision as to call or not.

So really its just a case of getting a nicer SPR against the rest of the table.

bw07507 said:

Standard line here for me is to bet flop and ch/f turn. 10/6s dont float with less than top pair like ever. They also rarely try to take this flop away with worse than JJ if u check to them.

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I'm inclined this way myself now.

In my second take I think I might have narrowed his range too much to broadway cards that he didn't feel strong enough to 3 bet.

But if he's not trying to take the flop away, what about checking the flop and playing wa/wb? Mind you, we're OOP which makes that difficult to do.

Stu_Ungar said:

There isnt really a variety.

The button and the SB have around 20BB.

Everyone else has more than you, which means that its 100BB.

If the SB or Button call, then its going to be an easy flop decision as to call or not.

So really its just a case of getting a nicer SPR against the rest of the table.

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Yeah, you have a point, Stu.

But six or ten or twelve tabling I don't usually look that closely when I'm this far out. If there's a lot of shortstacks I'm usually leaving the table so I assume that there is a standard-ish mix behind me.

If I'm in the HJ or later I check stacks and everyone's stats, but otherwise I tend to just use a standard based on position and limpers. Plus I see an open raise of 5x as unusual as it's pretty rare in the games that I've played.

NineLions said:

Yeah, you have a point, Stu.

But six or ten or twelve tabling I don't usually look that closely when I'm this far out. If there's a lot of shortstacks I'm usually leaving the table so I assume that there is a standard-ish mix behind me.

If I'm in the HJ or later I check stacks and everyone's stats, but otherwise I tend to just use a standard based on position and limpers. Plus I see an open raise of 5x as unusual as it's pretty rare in the games that I've played.

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Right now I am absolutely awful at multi-tabling. I think in a situation like this my brain would melt.

I do think multi-tabling alone is a case for a larger PFR.. if it folds out a few more hands then its going to make your life easier. JJ is an awkward hand because there are significantly more hands that can hit an OP than say QQ.

At the same time it has value, so its not a hand you should be willing to fold to the first sign of aggression or simply because there is an over-card.. otherwise you are taking a poker step backwards and playing fit or fold.

NineLions said:

I'm inclined this way myself now.

In my second take I think I might have narrowed his range too much to broadway cards that he didn't feel strong enough to 3 bet.

But if he's not trying to take the flop away, what about checking the flop and playing wa/wb? Mind you, we're OOP which makes that difficult to do.

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The thing is, this guy is going to insta fold with less than top pair and if he's not already there he may have as many as 6 outs. Let's pretend he has either AQ or KQ with an equal chance of both and let's say he will fold AQ to any bet and raise KQ. Also let's just say that the pot is $100.

WHEN YOU BET
If you bet 1/2 the pot, 50% of the time you will lose $50 immediately. The other 50% you win $100 immediately for an EV of $25/hand.

WHEN YOU CHECK THE BEST HAND
If you check it down when he has AQ he's drawing to 6 outs and you win a full pot 3 times and lose 1 for an EV of .5 pots per hand or $50/hand.

WHEN YOU CHECK THE WORST HAND
If you check it down when he has KQ you will win 1 full pot 1 time and lose 9 times for an EV of -.8 pots /hand or -$80/hand

WHEN YOU CHECK CONCLUSION
The 1/2 times you have the best hand you win $50.
The 1/2 times you have the worst hand you lose $80
for an EV of -$15

So, when we bet the flop we win $25 and when we check we lose $15.
Given my over simplified numbers it looks like betting is the better of the 2 choices.

bw07507 said:

Standard line here for me is to bet flop and ch/f turn. 10/6s dont float with less than top pair like ever. They also rarely try to take this flop away with worse than JJ if u check to them.

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havn't you just stated the exact reasoning that would mean you should check and not bet? Since you've just said a bet will only get called by better and a check will only get action from worse

havn't you just stated the exact reasoning that would mean you should check and not bet? Since you've just said a bet will only get called by better and a check will only get action from worse

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Yea, I dunno. I pretty much just bet here expecting to take it down and if he calls we know he has Kx+. He's never trying to take it away with worse when you check it to him so why give him the free draw to his set/Ax? I know there isn't much chance at all he hits that, but say he hits his hand 8% of the time on the turn. By checking you are going to have to concede the hand an extra 8% of the time. Also, If you check flop and then bet a blank turn, he still probably isn't peeling underpairs and definitely not Ax hands.

I know this term is thrown around alot falsely, but I think it applies here. Since we know villain will play totally straightforward and call/raise his Kx+ hands and dump everything else, we just "bet for information" basically and take down a small pot most of the time and give up if he raises.

I think bet/fold is way better than ch/call here and still slightly better than ch/f.