Originally Posted by NineLions
I'm inclined this way myself now.
In my second take I think I might have narrowed his range too much to broadway cards that he didn't feel strong enough to 3 bet.
But if he's not trying to take the flop away, what about checking the flop and playing wa/wb? Mind you, we're OOP which makes that difficult to do.
The thing is, this guy is going to insta fold with less than top pair and if he's not already there he may have as many as 6 outs. Let's pretend he has either AQ or KQ with an equal chance of both and let's say he will fold AQ to any bet and raise KQ. Also let's just say that the pot is $100.
WHEN YOU BET
If you bet 1/2 the pot, 50% of the time you will lose $50 immediately. The other 50% you win $100 immediately for an EV of $25/hand.
WHEN YOU CHECK THE BEST HAND
If you check it down when he has AQ he's drawing to 6 outs and you win a full pot 3 times and lose 1 for an EV of .5 pots per hand or $50/hand.
WHEN YOU CHECK THE WORST HAND
If you check it down when he has KQ you will win 1 full pot 1 time and lose 9 times for an EV of -.8 pots /hand or -$80/hand
WHEN YOU CHECK CONCLUSION
The 1/2 times you have the best hand you win $50.
The 1/2 times you have the worst hand you lose $80
for an EV of -$15
So, when we bet the flop we win $25 and when we check we lose $15.
Given my over simplified numbers it looks like betting is the better of the 2 choices.