$25 NLHE Full Ring: JJ - 4 bet by frequent 4 bettor

youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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PokerStars - $0.25 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (BTN): $27.46
SB: $35.95
BB: $18.16
UTG: $26.10
UTG+1: $33.30
MP: $8.93
MP+1: $52.24
LP: $12.50
CO: $24.75

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has J:club: J:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, fold, fold, CO raises to $5.10, Hero calls $2.85

Flop: ($10.55, 2 players) 7:heart: T:club: K:heart:
CO bets $5.24, Hero calls $5.24

Turn: ($21.03, 2 players) 5:heart:
CO bets $14.41 and is all-in, Hero calls $14.41

River: ($49.85, 2 players) 6:club:

VPIP: 13 PFR: 10
His 4 bet is 20% after over 150 hands.

I know im gonna get ripped to shreds for this hand but let me try and explain.

I 3 bet knowing there is a good chance I will be 4 bet and that because of our positions he wont always be super strong.

My options preflop -
Fold - I dont like this because JJ is ahead of villains 4 betting range which I assume to be around, AJ+, 1010+.
Call - I like this option because it allows me to see a flop in position knowing that I can re-think the strength of my hand after villains cbet. His 4 bet is also quite small which I feel makes QQ and KK less likely, improving my strength against his range.
5 bet all in - I really dont like turning JJ into a bluff hand. We're only really getting called all in by QQ+ and AK. So im sure you'll agree shoving is a terrible move.

On the flop -
His bet size is again quite small. I feel AA and AK both bet bigger here and try and get the money asap. 1010 just flopped huge and may bet small like this, the same for KK, in a hope not to scare me out the pot. It seems like a weak bet, which I feel could be QQ or AQ/J as well.

I call thinking that QQ is likely to check the turn and I can shove hopefully getting a decent amount of fold equity.

On the turn -
Now he shoves and I feel like if I was good on the flop then Im still good and should call...


Would love some feedback on this guys
 
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baudib1

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It's the most +EV move, also you'll suck postflop OOP.

Must risk $22.50 to win $7.60

Not good at math so don't know how to extrapolate his 4-bet range. But it is quite high. Let's say he 4-bets TT+/AQo+, AJs+

That's 5.0% of hands and pretty conservative.

If he folds AQ, AJs, JJ, TT, we win $7.60.

That's 25 combos when we hold JJ.

25 x $7.60 = $190

He calls with AK+, QQ+. That's 34 combos and he always calls with those. So we put in $22.50 to win $27.35. Out of 34 combos we will win 12.55 times and lose $22.50 -- 21.45 times.

12.55 x (We win $7.60 in pot plus his $19.75 stack) $27.35 = $343.24
21.45 x (remaining stack we lose) $22.50 = -$482.63

$190 + $343.24 - $482.63 = $50.61 (profitable shove)

So for his 59 combos that he 4-bets, we win $.86 on average or over 3.4 BBs per shove. Pretty damn good.

Keep in mind I may have done the math wrong here. Someone should check. But this is extremely conservative and assumes he isn't 4-betting wider and also assumes he never calls off with TT/AQ or worse. Those are large assumptions.
 
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baudib1

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Hey
looks like I made a big mistake

Since villain is so tight, it means his 4-bet % is not really high at all. Someone who opens 10% and 4-bets 20% is only 4-betting 2% of total hands.

So then it is probably a fold pre.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Hey
looks like I made a big mistake

Since villain is so tight, it means his 4-bet % is not really high at all. Someone who opens 10% and 4-bets 20% is only 4-betting 2% of total hands.

So then it is probably a fold pre.

Consider hes in the cutoff so 10% is not his opening range at all, it will be far wider.

If you say he is 4 betting a total of 2% of hands then you are introducing a new variable that he cant control.. he has to be 3 bet before he can 4 bet. So that deems your 2% stat irrelevant.
If I raise 100 hands out of 100 and get 3 bet once, I then 4 bet that one time. That means I am 4 betting 1% of total hands but my 4 bet stat is 100%.

Also im in position.
 
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baudib1

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yeah but you can't extrapolate that to him 4-betting higher from CO.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Why cant you? An aggressive opponent is far more likely to open a hand like 1010 or AQ and then 4 bet for value against my 3 betting range.
 
JCgrind

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My guess without stats is that he's not 4bing for value with 5%, it's either mad pair or a bluff raise cos he got 3b by a button (and you made it seem to me like you 3bet wide).

I think his 4b sizing means nothing unless you've seen him show down hands. Many players 4bet bigger for value, while others do it small to try keep in weak hands. Others 4b bigger when they're bluffing because they feel they'll be called less of the time, others again may 4b less when they're bluffing so they lose less when shoved on.
It's too small a sample to draw any conclusions, but 4bing 20% of the time you get 3b is pretty standard IMO.
Also, not sure if you included your 3b stat but I didn't see it, this is hugely relevant to how often he will 4b you.
A guy playing this tight probably isn't opening more than 20% from the co. 20% of 20 is still top 4%, which JJ is bottom end of so fold isn't bad...

Having said that, I'm not sure whether it's better or worse than a call. Considering his bitch 4b sizing, he's made it like what $2.75 more or something to win like $7.75?
Based on the fact that you just know he's betting the flop 100% of the time for vale or as a bluff, so I view this more as $2.75 to win at least $15 (that's if he half pots the flop, which is standard, wouldn't view this as weak if I was you). So that gives you like 5.5:1, and you hit your set ~7.5:1. Plus I think a lot of the time here he's 4b'ing air because he thinks you're FOS, so once you call him on the flop and he's OOP, he'll opt to check down.
I really hate the king because a huge chunk of his 4b range beats you now that AK combos are good. So im folding that old flop. As played call flop if board is Q high or JJ is an overpair and shut down OTT, because I don't think many vils are capable of bluff shoving in 3b+ pots, so until I see otherwise, they have cred in my eyes

Also, I don't know much about zoom but I'd assume raises and reraises are skewed more heavily to bluffs than in their ring game counterparts, having said that, I don't think I've ever seen a good player 4b TT at 25nl SIXMAX, everyone wants to setmine regardless of the price and associated odds. I do see AQ very occasionally, so IMO you beat nothing, flip with most and get it in bad often if you shove pre so stay right away from that nonsense
 
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dooydoo

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4bet over 150 means nothing so ignore it.

if your intention was to 3bet because you think you would get 4bet then you have to shove. If that was your plan then stick with it. You cannot call a 4b and you cannot fold otherwise why would you have 3bet in the first place.

A big mistake players make is they do something without planning ahead and if they do plan ahead they change their plan for some reason.

My opinion is to cold call preflop and play ip post. As played i would fold pre.

his 4bet flop size is half pot so its not small. Also 4b pot bet sizes are usually small because the pot is massive with so much little behind so theres no need to bet large. Even if he bet 1/3 pot here thats still just as strong as 3/4 pot.

Also i dont think this guy is going to 4b pre, cb a K high flop and shove a turn with worse than JJ. I dont see him doing that with AQ or 99. You have the worst hand here far too often.

I 3 bet knowing there is a good chance I will be 4 bet and that because of our positions he wont always be super strong.

5 bet all in - I really dont like turning JJ into a bluff hand. We're only really getting called all in by QQ+ and AK. So im sure you'll agree shoving is a terrible move.

Youre kind of countering yourself here. Remember to avoid calling 4bets unless youre ultra deep so that shouldnt be an option for you in the vast majority of scenarios.
 
JCgrind

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^ I agree with this, I'm flatting pre here most of the time. 3b/fold to 4b sucks

IMO you never ever need to 3b for value other than AA KK at micros if opener isn't a total fish station UNLESS;
1. You're defending blinds vs late opener (your hand is underrepped massively because of position)
2. You AA and someone opens UTG (as they're super strong here the most)
3. To iso, especially v fishies

By flatting you get to play a hand IP that crushes your opponents range and that most vils will be super surprised to see you show up with. Example;
1. You flat pre and flop comes shit like 224 two tone. you'll get action off a ton of pockets 55-TT. Theyll be cbet ting flops, calling raises and turn bets, maybe even rivers. Ace paint will probably have a dig at 2 streets too, cbet the flop a lot of the time.
2. Same spot except this time you 3b pre. 55-TT peels 1 maybe 2 streets, while something like AQ c/f's
 
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c9h13no3

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What's his 3-bet % and steal percentage? This kinda seems like a fold to me. For a nittier player, 20% 4-bet isn't that out of line.
 
WVHillbilly

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If you think he 4-bets here a lot just flat the open preflop or be willing to 5bet AI. 3betting to flat a 4bet seems like the absolute worst way to play the hand. Personally against a player this tight preflop I'd just flat here with position and play a little poker postflop.
 
JCgrind

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3betting to flat a 4bet seems like the absolute worst way to play the hand. Personally against a player this tight preflop I'd just flat here with position and play a little poker postflop.

+1
 
BelgoSuisse

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His 4 bet is 20% after over 150 hands.

150 hands total or 150 hands relevant for the 4bet% stats (i.e. 150 hands where villain raised and got 3bet). If it's the former, the stat is 100% irrelevant.

As said, 20% 4bet over a 10% PFR means a 2% range, i.e. tighter than QQ+,AK. Would need to see very convincing positional stats to convince me otherwise.

Flat instead of 3betting preflop, ainec.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Youre kind of countering yourself here. Remember to avoid calling 4bets unless youre ultra deep so that shouldnt be an option for you in the vast majority of scenarios.

They dont counter themselves at all, his 4 bet range and his 5 bet calling range are possibly very different.

Any advice on postflop
 
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JCgrind

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Fold flop. AQ is the only hand you beat and even that's too wide for his 4b range
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Just out of interest villain showed up with AQ,

Thanks for all the advice guys
 
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