$25 NLHE Full Ring: Can I value bet this river?

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Odd hand. Feel free to criticize any or all.

Can we make any $$s betting this river? If so, how much?

Merge - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $17.35 (30/0/.5 74 hands)
BB: $20.68 (32/10/5.5 62 hands)
UTG: $24.80
UTG+1: $34.00
Hero (MP): $51.98
MP+1: $26.14
LP: $25.35
CO: $6.05
BTN: $25.00 (11/8/.3 213 hands)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has Q:spade: Q:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.00, 4 players) K:spade: 6:club: 4:spade:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($3.00, 4 players) 6:diamond:
SB checks, BB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, fold, SB calls $1.00

River: ($6.00, 3 players) 6:spade:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero ???
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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I'd be down for a half pot bet
 
Jurn8

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$1.75-3 something he will sigh call like mid pairs
 
B

baudib1

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My first instinct is to check it back but yeah $1.75-$3 sounds good.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Wtf do they call with if they don't have a king? Idk, I think I wuss out here. BB clearly doesn't have shit (so he's not calling), but I'd expect SB to have us beat a pretty good portion of the time. What draw of the SB's didn't get there? 57? SB is crazy passive, so I pretty much just put him on a king and check.
 
bgomez89

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putting in 3 bucks somebody could just say **** it with mid pairs, hell even maybe a flush could find a way to call
 
c9h13no3

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putting in 3 bucks somebody could just say **** it with mid pairs, hell even maybe a flush could find a way to call
But the SB was the 3rd caller. Would you call with middle pair after a bet & call in front of you? Plus just because the SB checked the turn doesn't mean they don't have a king. SB's AF is hella small.
 
bgomez89

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Even of one of them doesn't call that's ok because we might get value from the other person. Even if sb does have a king we can just b/f river for maybe a smaller amount than $3
 
acky100

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Im looking back on this unsure whether or not my first thought of half pot is good. I kind of want to bet like 50c or a dollar, in hopes of getting called by A high or just complete junk.

I still wanna bet half pot though because of mid pairs and maybe the fish will call with a flush if he's really stupid. But i dont see the point of betting anywhere between as mid pairs arent gonna think $3 oh no i fold, opposed to $2 my 8's are good i call.

Not sure it looks close, i wonder what's better, him calling a goofy bet of like 50c or $1 quite a lot or him calling our $3 but less often (probably just his pocket pairs)
 
sixpeppers

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Bet based on the reasoning that they will bet if they have a King almost certainly. If thats not true, then check it back.
 
B

baudib1

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Bet based on the reasoning that they will bet if they have a King almost certainly. If thats not true, then check it back.

Yeah this is the key I think. As I said I wanted to check but for sure we can discount either having Kx or quads a decent amount because because few people are going to be checking the virtual nuts OOP in a 3-way pot. But this is 25NL FR and some players will be checking a K in fear of quads or checking a 6 to lolslowplay.

Since people have a hard time folding full houses and our hand is underrepped, a smallish valuebet is probably in order.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I bet $2 and got a call from the SB's 77. Wanted to post it because I wasn't sure when I made the bet but I really didn't want to check.

Thanks for the responses.
 
c9h13no3

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You guys realize why betting small here is pretty bad if we're going to be betting, right?
 
Reptar7

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Can you? Sure. But should you? I would've checked behind but I'm sure you had a little more info at least than you've given us. Looks like your bet was paid off, but I'd still check.
 
Reptar7

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You guys realize why betting small here is pretty bad if we're going to be betting, right?

This was my first thought. If you bet small it's like you don't have the K or 6 and you aren't looking for a big call. If you saw someone do that I would have the urge to RR, but I would probably fight it just in case he was a nit playing a K and just trying to get a little money from other pocket hands. I'm not sure if that is the case with other people, but if you wouldn't reraise a small bet just to push out pockets or hands that aren't a K or 6, then this bet is okay, as the BB checked the river, I think the QQ is ahead most of the time. In that case betting small to get some value is a good idea. If he reraises big I think it forces a fold no matter what tho. So it is kind of a tricky spot as there is thin value to be had but a small bet invites someone to take it away from you and you can't call a big rr. Basically I think there is a little bit of value to be had, but it could be subject to extreme variance so it might not be worth it especially when you can just check to win and avoid any slow rollers.
 
S

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Like a few others said, a half-sized pot bet would be key there. He doesn't look like he's holding a king. And I sure doubt he has the fourth 6 in the deck. I'd make a decent sized bet to make a little more money. If he was slow-playing the king, that's just unlucky. Can't do anything about that one.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Its not about getting raised or not. I just think Zeebo theorem applies here, and fish don't really alter their calling ranges that much based on bet size. So I totally think if you're going to put the fish on a smaller boat, you can v-bet for more like $5.
 
bgomez89

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Its not about getting raised or not. I just think Zeebo theorem applies here, and fish don't really alter their calling ranges that much based on bet size. So I totally think if you're going to put the fish on a smaller boat, you can v-bet for more like $5.

Makes sense but even a fish knows when there's three of a kind on the board that their full house can be beat and if bet to much I think some could fold
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Makes sense but even a fish knows when there's three of a kind on the board that their full house can be beat and if bet to much I think some could fold
Ya, obviously a shove isn't good. But a $4 bet can be called half as often and be equally profitable as a $2 bet. I don't think you get 51% less calls when you bet $4 against a fish on a Zeebo board.
 
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recoveryagent

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wow so many diff views me i stick with my qq and bet pot but i may be the fish
 
WVHillbilly

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Ya, obviously a shove isn't good. But a $4 bet can be called half as often and be equally profitable as a $2 bet. I don't think you get 51% less calls when you bet $4 against a fish on a Zeebo board.

Sorry misinterpreted what you were saying earlier (thought you were worried about getting bluff raised). Totally agree with this logic. Honestly doubt he folds any pair to a $4-$6 bet. Guess when I bet small I was 1, not so sure I was good and 2, hoping that a flush might call the smaller bet.
 
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