$25 NLHE Full Ring: Getting value from NIT

No Brainer

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Villain is 9/8/1.5 after ~500 hands.

Is there a better line to take here?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($25)
Hero ($58.01)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($25)
UTG+2 ($13.05)
MP1 ($34.19)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($39.59)
BTN ($37.84)

Dealt to Hero 8 8

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

FLOP ($1.60) 8 5 5

Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

TURN ($4.10) 8 5 5 Q

Hero bets $3, MP2 calls $3

RIVER ($10.10) 8 5 5 Q 7

Hero bets $9
 
REI53

REI53

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Bet less on the river or maybe check to him...if he's a nit he probabilly had AA, KK or even 5A on that spot...
 
kleitches

kleitches

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If he's a nit he's probably not value betting AA/KK in that spot.
 
B

BigBelle

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You may try leading out with a 0.75 bet on the flop considering he's a nit he should re-raise on the flop and you may be able to get more chips in the center as he may read you as a pair like JJ or 1010.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Villain has a ton of overpairs in his range on the flop and you have few strong hands. Gonna be hard for him to fold to a ch/r, so I raise this flop against this player type 100%.
 
No Brainer

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Villain has a ton of overpairs in his range on the flop and you have few strong hands. Gonna be hard for him to fold to a ch/r, so I raise this flop against this player type 100%.


When reviewing, this is what I initially thought. But looking at a range of about 6% (99+ AQo+ AJs+ KQs) we have 36 combinations of overpairs and 40 combinations of Ax or KQ. This means that around half the time he is going to shut down if we raise him.
 
WVHillbilly

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Check his positional awareness before you assume that. He may only be raising 3-4% from MP.

Also if you think he shuts down to a ch/r on the flop why are you leading the turn?
 
No Brainer

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I was going to post that in the OP, he has raised earlier with AJs UTG+1 so I am giving him a little more than that in MP.

The turn is where I kinda got stuck. I was worried that when we check he will check back and we will lose that street of value.

Just writing out this reply and realised that if we check it to him he will generally bet anything that he would call a bet with and only really check back hands that he would fold to my bet.

So, the question is should we check raise? The Queen hits a large portion of his range but a turn check raise looks very strong...
 
WVHillbilly

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I think you need to try to ch/raise at some point (I prefer the flop in this situation) or you could try leading the flop. The Queen is just an OK card for you. It helps KQs and AQ (15 combos) but 99-JJ (18 combos) now just want to see a cheap showdown.
 
Double-A

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I'd probably lead this flop with 1/2 to 2/3 pot... I think enough $25 players donk/stab at paired boards to make it look like we are doing the same. We might loose his big aces but he'll be hard pressed to fold his big pairs. He might 3bet us...

Thinking ahead isn't my strong point but, if he calls the flop, I'd plan on checking the turn, reaffirming that I took a stab and got caught... "I probably have an 8, a smaller pair, or squadoosh."

If he bets turn, craise. If he checks behind, I do something weird on the river like over betting the pot or betting 1/3.

You flopped a monster against a guy who has been waiting forever to play a hand... check/calling the flop is bad... then he at least has to consider that you may have a 5... don't give him an excuse to play his over pairs cautiously...

I'm guessing he folded the river?
 
No Brainer

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I'd probably lead this flop with 1/2 to 2/3 pot... I think enough $25 players donk/stab at paired boards to make it look like we are doing the same. We might loose his big aces but he'll be hard pressed to fold his big pairs. He might 3bet us...

Thinking ahead isn't my strong point but, if he calls the flop, I'd plan on checking the turn, reaffirming that I took a stab and got caught... "I probably have an 8, a smaller pair, or squadoosh."

If he bets turn, craise. If he checks behind, I do something weird on the river like over betting the pot or betting 1/3.

You flopped a monster against a guy who has been waiting forever to play a hand... check/calling the flop is bad... then he at least has to consider that you may have a 5... don't give him an excuse to play his over pairs cautiously...

I'm guessing he folded the river?

No, he called the river. Had 56s obv...
 
vanquish

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What would be your preferred line on this board?

the same as yours, except maybe a lil bigger on turn


edit: but sometimes i'd click on the lil tab that shows how often he folds his cbet to c/r's, and if he doesn't fold to those a lot, would probably c/r flop to an amount that would allow me to lure him into calling all 3 streets
 
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