$25 NLHE Full Ring: Fold on the turn? Set vs. KK

E

Estiven

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IPoker, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $26.94 (107.8 bb)
BB: $22.08 (88.3 bb)
UTG+2: $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $30.11 (120.4 bb)
Hero (MP2): $30.54 (122.2 bb)
MP3: $25.28 (101.1 bb)
CO: $11.59 (46.4 bb)
BTN: $32.63 (130.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K:club: K:heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, MP3 calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.10) 5:spade: J:club: 3:club: (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, MP3 folds, CO raises to $6.75, BB folds, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($16.60) T:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.09 and is all-in, Hero calls $4.09

River: ($24.78) 7:spade: (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $24.78 pot ($1.37 rake)
Final Board: 5:spade: J:club: 3:club: T:club: 7:spade:
Hero mucked K:club: K:heart: and lost (-$11.59 net)
CO showed 5:diamond: 5:heart: and won $23.41 ($11.82 net)
 
E

Estiven

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I called the turn all in because I was getting good odds to call and had K high flush draw.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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yeah folding turn would be awful... and we got king of club

just gii on flop we got backdoor flush draw as well.. he wont always have a set there and i think its exploitable to fold kk in that on flop

if hes a bad player its an easier shove
 
S

string

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You made a standard raise preflop and got 3 callers, which sucks with KK but is something you have to keep in mind when considering postflop actions.

The flop is good for your hand, giving you a strong overpair to a pretty safe board.
When CO raises your cbet on the flop, he has a lot of semi-bluffs with flush draws, so I like the decision to see the turn.

Turn is a very bad card for your hand given the action on the flop. It completes the flush draw which we established on the flop was a big part of villain's raising range.
You check, and villain shoves giving you about 5:1

I called the turn all in because I was getting good odds to call and had K high flush draw.

You think you were getting good odds with the K-high flush draw and overpair, but I disagree.
If the villain has a value hand, you are drawing anywhere from slim to dead.
Value hands here are sets, flushes, and maybe AJ.
Sets have you on a 10 outer (2 kings and 8 flush cards) depending on the set, so you are roughly a 4:1 dog. If you know villain has a set, you should call.
Flushes have you in rougher shape. You are drawing completely dead to the nut flush, and have 7 outs against non-nut flushes.
You are roughly a 6:1 dog against non-nut flushes, so you are not getting the correct odds.

Given the math, I think this adds up to a fold.
If you know villain has a set, you should call.
Unfortunately, flushes are a huge part of villain's range here and have you getting incorrect odds to draw or possibly even drawing dead.
If you have reason to believe bluffs and single pair hands could be a significant part of villain's range here, then you should call.

The question in my mind is why flat call the flop? What turn cards are going to make you fold? Do you fold to the ace of clubs? Any ace? If you don't plan on folding when the flush draw completes on the turn, you should get it in on the flop. The villain was pot committed, and all the money was probably going in on the turn no matter the card.

In a vacuum, you had 10 outs against villain's hand giving you about 4:1. The call was correct. Against the possibility of flushes, however, I think that folding is a better decision.
 
Whyel9809

Whyel9809

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what were co's stats??
could honestly go either way but he played it strongly just wonder the % he makes that move in order to make our decision
 
J

joe777

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Raise bigger pre If you already knew villains were fishes so it would be easier to make decision post flop.
 
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