$25 NLHE Full Ring: Does he have some kind of sick read here?

acky100

acky100

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Total posts
3,523
Chips
0
Not the usual HA question but just got schooled off a regular, he's a winning reg like 3BB/100. is like 18/14 or something but that doesnt matter too much. He limps here and im putting him on a small pocket pair like 77 or lower. There is really nothing else i can put him on and he has done this because there is fish to his right that he wants to stack i assume.

Does he know im a donk or what do you think he knows about me apart from that im a spewy fish by the looks. i think i have a solid read on his hand range at this point yet i cant push him off it, most regs would happily lay this down.

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1476977
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $28.92
BB: $32.52
UTG: $32.69
UTG+1: $22.92
UTG+2: $26.76
MP1: $13.06
MP2: $31.64
Hero (CO): $29.09
BTN: $9.65

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with J :spade: K :heart:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.60) 6 :heart: 6 :spade: 8 :heart: (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $2, UTG+2 calls $2

Turn: ($7.60) Q :spade: (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $4.50, UTG+2 calls $4.50

River: ($16.60) 9 :diamond: (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $8.50, UTG+2 calls $8.50
 
Shufflin

Shufflin

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 28, 2010
Total posts
510
Chips
0
I agree those are some baaaad calls
 
acky100

acky100

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Total posts
3,523
Chips
0
I dunno he seems like a good player so i assume he had a good reason to do it :/
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Define your range that bets but doesn't shove that river?
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
He only has to fold 33% of the time, this is one of those times he didn't.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
He only has to fold 33% of the time, this is one of those times he didn't.
If he doesn't fold any pair he's not going to be folding that often. If we think he limps behind with Axhh that's the only thing he folds that we don't beat.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Do you normally bet so small for value?

Do you normally bet under-pairs on the river?


If you dont bet underpairs on the river then your repping KQ+

Would you bet about 1/2 pot on the turn and river with KQ+ KK+ ?

If those are both true, you have to be bluffing.

Although I think he probably just didn't feel like folding.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
If he doesn't fold any pair he's not going to be folding that often. If we think he limps behind with Axhh that's the only thing he folds that we don't beat.

yeah, if he plays a big draw that way it works but if he's limp-hero calling all the way down it's something worth noting and I'd avoid 3-barreling King-high against him in the future but I wouldn't sweat it too much.

There are plenty of regs who call flop/fold turn, or call flop/call turn/fold river.
 
acky100

acky100

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Total posts
3,523
Chips
0
yeah, if he plays a big draw that way it works but if he's limp-hero calling all the way down it's something worth noting and I'd avoid 3-barreling King-high against him in the future but I wouldn't sweat it too much.

There are plenty of regs who call flop/fold turn, or call flop/call turn/fold river.

Yeah thanks guys, suppose him only having to fold 33% reminds me that this is probably fine. I know most regs at 25nl are folding pretty much every time here with 22 usually before the river also.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I wouldn't worry about it too much, just keep firing.

Showing down a bluff is probably beneficial in most cases and tripling KJ here is great for your range.

If regs keep good notes two good things can happen:

1. You can triple 8x-JJ for value here and get looked up by any pair, maybe even A-high.
2. Thinking regs might note that you barrel off a lot so it'll be tougher for them to float the flop even though they know you do this because they won't get to showdown cheap.
 
R

RVladimiro

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 27, 2011
Total posts
759
Chips
0
Fish question: is it plausible that the flop call was made because the flop is paired?
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
Explain why? I tend to bluffcatch less often with hands like 22 on paired boards because villain is starting out with even more equity than usual and especially since the board is also flushing.


Board: 6h 8h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.737% 57.68% 01.06% 571 10.50 { 2c2s }
Hand 1: 41.263% 40.20% 01.06% 398 10.50 { KhJs }


Board: 6h 8h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.697% 69.70% 00.00% 690 0.00 { 2c2s }
Hand 1: 30.303% 30.30% 00.00% 300 0.00 { KhJs }
 
R

RVladimiro

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 27, 2011
Total posts
759
Chips
0
I don't know, that's why I said it was a fish question. I see players raising paired boards with any PP all the time, shoving even.

I admit I don't understand why the paired board increases KJ equity though.

/thread hijack
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
another 8 gives him a better hand and makes 22 the nut low.

Fish mindset: If board is paired he is less likely to have it because if he had trips he would obviously slowplay.

or

OMG I HAZ TWO PAIRS!
 
acky100

acky100

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Total posts
3,523
Chips
0
^ haha and my favourite, if another 8 lands OMG I HAZ 3 PAIRS!

But seriously Vlad the plays you see at 2nl are because of one thing, it is 2nl :) Move up to where they respect your raises already yeh?
 
Cafeman

Cafeman

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 12, 2011
Total posts
3,200
Chips
0
I don't know, that's why I said it was a fish question. I see players raising paired boards with any PP all the time, shoving even.
Not a fish question at all imo. I see this all the time too. I think it might come from the fact that people cbet too much and so villain figures their sPP is good here a large % of the time (as no one ever has anything anyway) and with a paired board it's even harder to hit so... and it beats calling down hoping your hand holds up. For example, Acky couldn't have stood a reraise here could he. Instead he had a chance of catching one of his 6 outs on the turn and river.

Was it bet sizing do you think Acky? If he's a reg it means he's seen you play a few hands. Would you have played KK the same way? Would you have bet more on the turn if the Q had hit you, etc.? But yeah, what a call down!
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Not a fish question at all imo. I see this all the time too. I think it might come from the fact that people cbet too much and so villain figures their sPP is good here a large % of the time (as no one ever has anything anyway) and with a paired board it's even harder to hit so... and it beats calling down hoping your hand holds up. For example, Acky couldn't have stood a reraise here could he. Instead he had a chance of catching one of his 6 outs on the turn and river.

Was it bet sizing do you think Acky? If he's a reg it means he's seen you play a few hands. Would you have played KK the same way? Would you have bet more on the turn if the Q had hit you, etc.? But yeah, what a call down!

Nothing really to do with this post, but In another thread Im tak=lking about how the games have become more agro and how that effects the WA/WB principle with a 1 pair hand.

The very next thread I come to and there is an example of how people are being more agro than they used to and theory as to what the catalyst is (cbetting too much)
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I've always seen bad players do spewy things on paired boards, I think there is one of those old theorems about this.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
I still say that there are just about zero hands in OPs range that beat villain here that he plays this way (turning 44/55 into a bluff to try to get him to fold an eight maybe???). I think betting 1/2 pot on that river against anyone who might actually be thinking about your hand is a losing play. I mean if we're determined to bluff the river shoving (he has just over a PSB left in his stack) should be more profitable. Yes he has to fold slightly more than ~53% of the time if we shove but I think if you start going through his range you'll see a shove is going to be a lot more profitable than your bet size.
 
acky100

acky100

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Total posts
3,523
Chips
0
I still say that there are just about zero hands in OPs range that beat villain here that he plays this way (turning 44/55 into a bluff to try to get him to fold an eight maybe???). I think betting 1/2 pot on that river against anyone who might actually be thinking about your hand is a losing play. I mean if we're determined to bluff the river shoving (he has just over a PSB left in his stack) should be more profitable. Yes he has to fold slightly more than ~53% of the time if we shove but I think if you start going through his range you'll see a shove is going to be a lot more profitable than your bet size.

Why do we think there is no hands in my range that could beat villain here? Which part of my line makes a thinking player see this? Why couldn't i turn up with TT-AA, QT,QJ,QK,AQ there? Can you just explain why anyone who might be thinking about my hand would know im full of shit here, i dont think i quite understand it :/ thanks man
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I don't know how acky plays, he couldn't play 8x this way?
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Why do we think there is no hands in my range that could beat villain here? Which part of my line makes a thinking player see this? Why couldn't i turn up with TT-AA, QT,QJ,QK,AQ there? Can you just explain why anyone who might be thinking about my hand would know im full of shit here, i dont think i quite understand it :/ thanks man

Already posted this

Do you normally bet so small for value?

Do you normally bet under-pairs on the river?


If you dont bet underpairs on the river then your repping KQ+

Would you bet about 1/2 pot on the turn and river with KQ+ KK+ ?

If those are both true, you have to be bluffing.

Although I think he probably just didn't feel like folding.
 
acky100

acky100

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Total posts
3,523
Chips
0
I guess i dont normally bet under pairs on the river but as i knew he had a small pocket pair i'd of happily bet TT or something there but i guess yeah i was repping Qx, And i would bet 1/2 pot on the turn and river to get value yes - how does this mean i have to be bluffing? really confused, feel like im missing something big here, or i'm just dumb.

Is the point just that, there is a smaller amount of combo's of Qx i could be playing opposed to Ax and other broadways, which is why he called? Maybe he knew i knew he had a small PP so knew i would bluff him off it regardless and the Q being the only scary card meant he would call and only have to be good like 25% of the time? Is that more like it...? cheers stu
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Why do we think there is no hands in my range that could beat villain here? Which part of my line makes a thinking player see this? Why couldn't i turn up with TT-AA, QT,QJ,QK,AQ there? Can you just explain why anyone who might be thinking about my hand would know im full of shit here, i dont think i quite understand it :/ thanks man

I throw out the pairs less than TP because you (I'll say you but I mean micro stakes players in general) generally check back one street (either turn or river). I throw out QT/QJ because you're unlikely to iso with those hands from the CO. I throw out AQ/KQ because of your river bet sizing (I think you'd bet more).


I don't know how acky plays, he couldn't play 8x this way?
He's (again micro stakes FR players in general) not value betting that thinly.
 
Top