$25 NLHE Full Ring: Does a fish on a FD ever fold this turn?

Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: Does a fish on a FD ever fold this turn?

full tilt poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 654029

BB: $25.00
UTG: $12.90
Hero (UTG+1): $43.55
MP: $6.65
CO: $32.43
BTN: $20.08
SB: $11.38

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG+1 with A
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Q
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1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.50) K
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7
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J
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(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, MP folds, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.50) T
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.00, SB calls $4

River: ($13.50) 5
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(2 players)
SB bets $5.13, Hero ?

This hand brings up a couple of points.

1.) can SB ever be bluffing here?
2.) shoving the turn is definitely not the highest EV because of his stack size.
3.) I assume he calls the turn bet with 100% of his FD's If stacks were deeper do you think a fishy player would still call with all of his FD's on a board like this or would a shove narrow his range (IF STACKS WERE DEEPER)
 
tomh7795

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You are a much better player then me so I am not sure what use i can be off. Not sure about betting that type of flop against 2 opponents. Espically if ones a fishy player. Turn I think was fine. I think he is likely to have a flush but you are having great odds and are pot commeted (can't spell) to call because you have put in about $6.25 so far and only need another $5 to call. You are getting 3.5 : 1 to call.

I don't think he is ever bluffing here.
I think a fish would be calling with any flush draws.
That's a good last question. I think shoving just is not getting any value out of the hand even with deeper stack unless he's very very loose. I would probably play the same way even with deeper stacks but if opp bet out river or shoved river then you'll have to re-evaluate. Probably foldig if he's passive but maybe make a crying call.

Like I said I probably not as good as you. This is my own personal opinion
 
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baudib1

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why would anyone, let alone a fish, fold their pair +FD or SDFD on the turn?
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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why would anyone, let alone a fish, fold their pair +FD or SDFD on the turn?

I dont know.. now back to the question that was asked. Does he fold ANY of his FD's to a turn shove with deeper stacks, i.e. 45s
 
tomh7795

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Yes I think so. He might be looser then most people but he won't go all in with just a FD and 1 card to come. What was his stats to know for sure if he would call or not.
 
tomh7795

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He's looser then I thought but I don't think he is calling all in with a FD on the turn. Best to bet Pot size bet and hope he calls fishing for a flush. I've noticed that fish don't mind calling large amount of chips with nothing but fold a lot more often when all there chips are at stake
 
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Ubercroz

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Yes, some of the time this is a bluff, he has a 2.5 aggression factor (thats pretty aggressive for a guy who plays that many hands so he HAS to bluff some places SOME of the time) and plays 44% of the hands that come his way and is the PFR 25% of the time. This is a fish who will bluff the river. OR he could be doing a weird spazzy bet with a hand that is good (2pair, TP, Rivered set).

Would you really shove the turn with the current nuts against a fishy player with a deep stack?

If his stack were equal to yours I guess maybe some fish would call a $40 bet, but so few would that I think making a 4-5$ bet like you did is a superior play. If all he has is a naked flushdraw then this is your last chance to get value out of him, and he may not be willing to go broke with a draw.
 
tomh7795

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You think he might be bluffing after calling the flop and turn. A fish doesn't know the float. Can you explain to me how this could be a bluff. 2.5 aggression freq isn't that high.
 
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Ubercroz

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2.5 is not that high if you play 19 vpip, it proportionally becomes more aggressive the more hands a person plays.

I guess what I'm saying is that it may not be a flush, so in the sense that its a pure stonecold bluff I guess maybe no (but that doesn't mean no never). But it could be a worse hand than the straight, and effectively be a bluff hoping that the flush is scary and his pair of kings "may still win".

Just because someone doesn't "know the float" does not mean they wont do it, whether it is done on purpose or accident.
 
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baudib1

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i think you can shove the turn for value anyway against the rest of his range.
 
Stu_Ungar

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i think you can shove the turn for value anyway against the rest of his range.

You can but is it the highest EV line?

Hence I'm trying to figure out what a guy like this would bet the river with.
 
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baudib1

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Honestly I think it is, because he's never folding like, a pair or something, let alone combo draws and not likely a bare FD either.
 
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