$25 NLHE Full Ring: Do I call this?

$25 NL HE Full Ring: Do I call this?

full tilt poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 468262
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
BTN: $8.76
SB: $5.60
BB: $8.10
UTG: $5.00
UTG+1: $29.47
UTG+2: $7.62
MP1: $7.83
MP2: $32.70
Hero (CO): $27.68
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 7 ♦ K ♦
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.60) Q ♣ T ♣ 9 ♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($1.60) A ♦ (2 players)
BB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25
River: ($2.10) J ♥ (2 players)
BB bets $7.10 all in....... Hrm.


So this guy had been showing down some medium strength hands. He limps in with A3o utg a few hands earlier, he also lost a king high flush to ace high flush with board all one suite. I had been playing tight agressive. Well on this hand I don't think he had the flush, maybe he did tho. Maybe he was trying to slowplay it on me? Should I have just folded to his .25 turn bet? I didn't want to bet that flop... but maybe should of then, but if he had a flush then he woulda called anyway I guess? I think he hit the str8 also, so if I thought that I shoulda called and split? What do u guys think?



OOPS, somehow i posted this thread 2 times, sorry. who can I tell do delete one? I also shoulda made a better thread title, oops. I suck at this HA thing.

I think the key point is that if you call you're hoping for a split.

Call and he has the straight and you win $1.05
Call and he has the flush and you lose $7.10

Even if the straight is more likely, 7:1 is hard to overcome.

It complicates things a little more if he can have two pair or air some of the time, then it becomes a much closer decision since you win $9.20 occasionally.

Although I think as a rule the bigger their bet relative to the pot the more medium strength hands you should fold and start playing closer to the top of your range so I fold here.

A call is likely turning a small long term proffit at best, folding prevents being exploited by the very possible scenario that he's making this overbet disproportionately for value compared to bluffs.

I would call. In 25NL raises are often direct displays of confidence. I've seen this time and time again, most people just bet their confidence. He probably has the straight, although maybe if he's a newb he has like two pair. I see this as a definite call and would be pretty suprised if he has the flush. odds of flopping a flush are ridiculously low in addition.

For the vast majority of opponents at 25NL this is a call. Odds of flopping a flush .84% or 117.79:1.

Spoiler... : [/color], Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

Final Pot: $2.10
BB wins $2.00
(Rake: $0.10)

Thanks for the insight! I think woulda been split, but very possible he had 2 pair also, just didnt have a great read. I do see people fail to get value, and try to slowplay flushes too, but not as often.

If villain is limping a3o utg id assume he is a pretty weak player. I dont think hes sophisticated enough to be shoving any worse hands than a straight here. Bad villains at 25nl will also take weird lines like this tryign to trap in their minds a monster made hand. I think this is a pretty standard fold. I dont ever see you winning this pot and chopping at best. Your only losing like 4bb on a fold lol. nice hand good fold

Leave this table before you wind up in this spot. You're surrounded by shorties. With the number of games available on the internet there is no excuse for not having at least decent tables. Unless the other guy with chips was trying to donate them to me specifically I would have flamed the short stackers for ruining poker and left 3 to 4 shorties ago.

But as played I think you're chopping most of the time here, but really there's nothing in the pot, so I think you can go either way here. The turn bet is odd, he could have been just trying to squeeze value here, but typically I'd expect more like half pot from a made flush here. My decision would be based on history with the table/this player. Depending on his FvCbet stats I've have cbet .75-1.00 here too, but I'm a cbetting aggromonkey, except for when I'm not.

Also you should definitely have folded to the .25 bet on the turn if you're not calling here. This is the best possible outcome you could hope for, you made your hand and get to play for stacks with a player who should be getting it in lighter. It is hard to not give the curiosity call sometimes when they minbet.

I think, given player stats that made me want to play this hand my line is cbet .75, turn cbet 2.00, river jam/call jam. Fold to any donkbetting or resistance on the flop or turn.

thepokerkid123 said:

I think the key point is that if you call you're hoping for a split.

Call and he has the straight and you win $1.05
Call and he has the flush and you lose $7.10

Even if the straight is more likely, 7:1 is hard to overcome.

It complicates things a little more if he can have two pair or air some of the time, then it becomes a much closer decision since you win $9.20 occasionally.

Click to expand...

What he said. I would assign 40% chance to a flush and 40% to a straight, no more than 20% of anything else. Good fold.

How can you assign a 40% chance to a flush? The odds of flopping one is less than 1%.

You are right BenLZ that is just more of a gut instinct assignment based on the way villain played his hand. The chances of getting AA/KK PF is 0.8% but if someone 4bets preflop, I would assign a 50-100% chance depending on villain stats that he/she has AA/KK.

BenLZ said:

How can you assign a 40% chance to a flush? The odds of flopping one is less than 1%.

Click to expand...

The odds increase dramatically when the board has 3 of one suit.

I do think 40% is high for the flush given the way that the hand played out but when he shoves the river he has either a flush or a straight or a bluff (shoving less than a straight here is bluffing).

The straight is easily the most likely because this guy can't have many combinations of hole cards that can flop the flush (QT9 for card removal), he then checks the flop and makes a tiny bet on the turn, hardly looking for value. I mean, if he's got a 67s that flopped it, surely he bets for value to protect his hand on the turn. With something less vulnerable like AJs he can play it a little slower but we've got to assume that he's going to bet for value at some stage.

The size of the bet on the river makes a bluff very unlikely because he has ridiculously overbet the pot. Still, if he's a really bad player it's hard not to include some bluffs in his range even with this gross overbet.

The straight is easily the most likely, just shoving because he figures he's at worst splitting the pot and hoping to get a call from something worse, which obviously isn't happening. Because of the price he's laying us to look him up though it becomes a close call even with the straight.

Why would you be raising K7s in the cut off for value against the stack sizes on the button and the blinds?