re: Poker & $25 NLHE Full Ring: Do I call this?
Originally Posted by BenLZ
How can you assign a 40% chance to a flush? The odds of flopping one is less than 1%.
The odds increase dramatically when the board has 3 of one suit.
I do think 40% is high for the flush given the way that the hand played out but when he shoves the river he has either a flush or a straight or a bluff (shoving less than a straight here is bluffing).
The straight is easily the most likely because this guy can't have many combinations of hole cards that can flop the flush (QT9 for card removal), he then checks the flop and makes a tiny bet on the turn, hardly looking for value. I mean, if he's got a 67s that flopped it, surely he bets for value to protect his hand on the turn. With something less vulnerable like AJs he can play it a little slower but we've got to assume that he's going to bet for value at some stage.
The size of the bet on the river makes a bluff very unlikely because he has ridiculously overbet the pot. Still, if he's a really bad player it's hard not to include some bluffs in his range even with this gross overbet.
The straight is easily the most likely, just shoving because he figures he's at worst splitting the pot and hoping to get a call from something worse, which obviously isn't happening. Because of the price he's laying us to look him up though it becomes a close call even with the straight.