$25 NLHE Full Ring: Call third barrel or raise earlier?

No Brainer

No Brainer

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/14/2.2

Firstly do we think that an 18/14 at 25NL can ever fire a third barrel bluff at this board with a busted flush draw? We have 27% pot odds to call and putting him on a range of 99+ it is not profitable to call. However by putting just two combos of busted flush draws into his range (AsKs, AsQs) we step over breakeven. If we think he will bet busted flush draws he will have more than just two combos, thus making a call profitable.

Second question, do you think we should have raised his c bets on either the flop or turn? and why?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($31.53)
BB ($25)
UTG ($7.15)
UTG+1 ($25.10)
UTG+2 ($10)
MP1 ($49.64)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($40.43)
Hero ($32.29)

Dealt to Hero J J

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, fold

FLOP ($2.50) 3 3 2

SB checks, MP2 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds

TURN ($5.50) 3 3 2 3

MP2 bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

RIVER ($12.50) 3 3 2 3 9

MP2 bets $7.10, Hero ??
 
benevg

benevg

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so you can fold full houses? :adore: personally, i couldn't do that here ;)

my thinking is that even if that bet is not meant as a bluff, it is still entirely possible that you have the best hand. i play just slightly tighter than 18/14 and i can see myself 3-barreling this with a medium pair. although in that case the third barrel would be mostly considered a bluff, heh. so... make the crying call?

(edit) as the the second question... consider raising the turn and compare to the current scenario. if he folds, then he was almost certainly beat (=> you would want to call now). if he calls, you still do not know where you are. and if he raises, you have already put the same amount of money as you would by calling the river and you need to fold on the turn instead. (am i making sense with this?) i don't know if you have a history of barreling here, but it would have been nice :)
 
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ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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my thinking is that even if that bet is not meant as a bluff, it is still entirely possible that you have the best hand.

Yep, pretty much my thoughts too. And even then, you will see the odd bluff here and there.

Raising turn over reps your hand and is just a silly retrospective solution for a problem you don't know is going to happen yet. By raising he folds out all his potential bluffs and his worse value hands.
 
B

baudib1

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Call, call, call.
If I'm villain here with 88 it's almost impossible to put you on an overpair. 99+ is ridiculously nitty range. People do odd, spewy things on paired boards and especially 3 of a kind boards. I've seen plenty of people play AK like the immortal nuts in this spot.

Here is a stove with 77+ that he's betting for value and just two combos of AKs. I am certain his range is wider.

Board: 3s 3c 2s 3d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.190% 50.00% 01.19% 21 0.50 { 77+, AhKh, AsKs }
Hand 1: 48.810% 47.62% 01.19% 20 0.50 { JcJh }
 
T

TorreyB

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As played it's a call on the river and pray you're the one ahead when the hands are shown.
 
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Skaplun

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why dont you even consider shoving the river?
 
No Brainer

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Thanks for the responses, just trying to make sure I'm not going crazy calling stationy in these spots and missing out on spots to bet. I did put him on a pretty nitty range while playing, but did make the river call. While reviewing I basically put him on 99+ as a value range and I found out that anything outside of that and we are making a profitable call here which is good.

why dont you even consider shoving the river?

By shoving we are basically just folding out all of his bluffs and getting owned when he calls. What hands do you see him calling with other than 99+ or maybe a random 9Ts?

Just plugged this into a fold equity calculator and come up with villain needing to fold this 39% of the time to make it breakeven. I definitely can't see a bluffing range for him of more than 39%...
Our hand has enough showdown value even against a fairly nitty range to make this a profitable call
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/14/2.2

Firstly do we think that an 18/14 at 25NL can ever fire a third barrel bluff at this board with a busted flush draw? We have 27% pot odds to call and putting him on a range of 99+ it is not profitable to call. However by putting just two combos of busted flush draws into his range (AsKs, AsQs) we step over breakeven. If we think he will bet busted flush draws he will have more than just two combos, thus making a call profitable.

We need more than 27% equity to call and we have 30% so we can call assuming a range of 99+ 22,33

The flop call is fine. I can even see him barrelling the turn with most of his range (because most are overcards).

I dont see him playing AK this way on the river. He has to be putting us on a pair and feeling that most wont fold. He is playing 18/14 and his AF isnt ridiculous. I can definably see him c-betting the flop and barrelling the turn but I dont see him firing the third barrel with AK when any PP is now a FH.

His bet sizing dosent feel all that strong... Id say he is likely on a hand 88-QQ. I think AA and KK would bet bigger. I dont think he folds his hand to a shove but I dont think he is on the top of his range. Maybe he spikes the 9 on the river and tries to make his final bet in-line with the other 2.. but my feeling is this is not AA/KK so given that at worst we have 30% and may have 40% equity if we can rule out AA/KK we definately have more than the 27% needed to call.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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By shoving we are basically just folding out all of his bluffs and getting owned when he calls. What hands do you see him calling with other than 99+ or maybe a random 9Ts?

Just plugged this into a fold equity calculator and come up with villain needing to fold this 39% of the time to make it breakeven. I definitely can't see a bluffing range for him of more than 39%...
Our hand has enough showdown value even against a fairly nitty range to make this a profitable call

We're NOT looking for a fold when we shove - looking for FE here is absurd. Better NEVER folds. We're looking for a call from worse. I don't hate shoving, but I just think it's a bit thin.

Villain's bet size is a little indicative of a weaker boat but that doesn't mean he's always calling a shove, hence why I think it's thin at best and that calling is obv safer.
 
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baudib1

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I think shoving is OK because of the low cards on the board, there is only one overfull (99). If the board ran out 33389 it's probably a fold.

I agree JJ shoving here is a little thinnish but on this board I'd shove QQ pretty happily.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I think it's quite possible he takes this line with ANY pocket pair, and I don't think he's really wrong. Lots of regs will make hero calls on the river with A high not to mention fish. I think a shove is in order because of that guy zeebo
 
No Brainer

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We need more than 27% equity to call and we have 30% so we can call assuming a range of 99+ 22,33

The flop call is fine. I can even see him barrelling the turn with most of his range (because most are overcards).

I dont see him playing AK this way on the river. He has to be putting us on a pair and feeling that most wont fold. He is playing 18/14 and his AF isnt ridiculous. I can definably see him c-betting the flop and barrelling the turn but I dont see him firing the third barrel with AK when any PP is now a FH.

His bet sizing dosent feel all that strong... Id say he is likely on a hand 88-QQ. I think AA and KK would bet bigger. I dont think he folds his hand to a shove but I dont think he is on the top of his range. Maybe he spikes the 9 on the river and tries to make his final bet in-line with the other 2.. but my feeling is this is not AA/KK so given that at worst we have 30% and may have 40% equity if we can rule out AA/KK we definately have more than the 27% needed to call.

Yeh I missed out the pocket 2s when looking at this. The extra three combos are obviously enough to push it over the calling line.

We're NOT looking for a fold when we shove - looking for FE here is absurd. Better NEVER folds. We're looking for a call from worse. I don't hate shoving, but I just think it's a bit thin.

Villain's bet size is a little indicative of a weaker boat but that doesn't mean he's always calling a shove, hence why I think it's thin at best and that calling is obv safer.

I was just thinking about fold equity because I really can't see him calling with worse enough of the time to make shoving OK. The only worse hands that will call us are TT, 22 and maybe a 9sTs (10 combos total). As you said better hands will never fold which include 18 combos of QQ+.

Unless I am missing something you would need him to fold sometimes to make shoving profitable right?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I was just thinking about fold equity because I really can't see him calling with worse enough of the time to make shoving OK. The only worse hands that will call us are TT, 22 and maybe a 9sTs (10 combos total). As you said better hands will never fold which include 18 combos of QQ+.

Unless I am missing something you would need him to fold sometimes to make shoving profitable right?

Missed this reply, sorry for the late response.

In general we want more than %50 of villain's range (ie hands that we beat) to call for a shove to be profitable. We can look at the math after, but first we have to break down ranges and assumptions.

If a shove doesn't get called by enough worse hands to show a profit, then yes, we would require fold equity to show a profit on a shove. That said, that doesn't mean that a shove is profitable at all. If he's not calling with enough worse hands and not folding enough better, then we have to look at folding or calling, our only other options. That said, lets look at some ranges:

22 is 33322. If you think he's calling a river shove with the that, then he's calling it with any boat. I don't necessarily agree with that, but if that were the case, his range would then be broken down as such:

Hands we beat:

22, 44-88, TT, A9s, T9s, A2s

Thats 6*7+1+1+1 = 45 combos

Hands that beat us:

QQ+, A3s, 99

That's 6*3+1+3 = 21 combos

If those ranges were correct, we show a VERY clear profit by shoving, with no fold equity in sight.

I don't think he calls a shove with 22 though, and I think the pairs like 88/77 etc are debatable. He may not get to the river with them, and even if he does there's a chance he could fold to a shove anyway.

Assuming he only calls a shove with 99+ and 9Ts/A9s, it's clearly a -EV shove:

A9s, 9Ts, TT: 8 combos

QQ+, 99: 24 combos

Basically he needs to call down to 66 for us to show a profit:

66-88, A9s, 9Ts, TT: 26 combos

QQ+, 99: 24 combos


I was going to do the math behind the % of the time he needs to call for us to show a profit but tbh I'm tired and the added factor of him b/f confused me, so meh. Assuming he's always calling river, it's clearly correct that he needs >%50 of his range to call with worse. Add in the times he b/f and it gets more complicated, and we have to play with different assumptions for what range he calls the river shove with.
 
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