Originally Posted by No Brainer
I was just thinking about fold equity because I really can't see him calling with worse enough of the time to make shoving OK. The only worse hands that will call us are TT, 22 and maybe a 9sTs (10 combos total). As you said better hands will never fold which include 18 combos of QQ+.
Unless I am missing something you would need him to fold sometimes to make shoving profitable right?
Missed this reply, sorry for the late response.
In general we want more than %50 of villain's range (ie hands that we beat) to call for a shove to be profitable. We can look at the math after, but first we have to break down ranges and assumptions.
If a shove doesn't get called by enough worse hands to show a profit, then yes, we would require fold equity to show a profit on a shove. That said, that doesn't mean that a shove is profitable at all. If he's not calling with enough worse hands and not folding enough better, then we have to look at folding or calling, our only other options. That said, lets look at some ranges:
22 is 33322. If you think he's calling a river shove with the that, then he's calling it with any boat. I don't necessarily agree with that, but if that were the case, his range would then be broken down as such:
Hands we beat:
22, 44-88, TT, A9s, T9s, A2s
Thats 6*7+1+1+1 = 45 combos
Hands that beat us:
QQ+, A3s, 99
That's 6*3+1+3 = 21 combos
If those ranges were correct, we show a VERY clear profit by shoving, with no fold equity in sight.
I don't think he calls a shove with 22 though, and I think the pairs like 88/77 etc are debatable. He may not get to the river with them, and even if he does there's a chance he could fold to a shove anyway.
Assuming he only calls a shove with 99+ and 9Ts/A9s, it's clearly a -EV shove:
A9s, 9Ts, TT: 8 combos
QQ+, 99: 24 combos
Basically he needs to call down to 66 for us to show a profit:
66-88, A9s, 9Ts, TT: 26 combos
QQ+, 99: 24 combos
I was going to do the math behind the % of the time he needs to call for us to show a profit but tbh I'm tired and the added factor of him b/f confused me, so meh. Assuming he's always calling river, it's clearly correct that he needs >%50 of his range to call with worse. Add in the times he b/f and it gets more complicated, and we have to play with different assumptions for what range he calls the river shove with.