$25 NLHE Full Ring: bottom end of straight BvB

GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: bottom end of straight BvB

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 10/5/6

Villain is a fairly nitty reg with a fold to steal of 75% and a fold to c-bet of 75%. What's the best river line?


Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (SB): $25.70 (102.8 bb)
BB: $29.10 (116.4 bb)
UTG+1: $19.16 (76.6 bb)
UTG+2: $9.59 (38.4 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb)
MP2: $27.60 (110.4 bb)
MP3: $44.64 (178.6 bb)
CO: $34.43 (137.7 bb)
BTN: $8.84 (35.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 9
diamond.gif
Q
club.gif

7 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 3
diamond.gif
Q
diamond.gif
J
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

Turn: ($3.50) T
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

River: ($8.50) K
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(2 players)
Hero ???
 
IveGot0uts

IveGot0uts

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Eep

That's a shitty situation. I'd be inclined to just check/call a small bet, or even check/fold. But I'm kind of a wuss. I'd say any reads you have on his play become valuable at this point. Would a blocker bet let you control the situation? I could see it serving as a nice way to extract value if you put kq or some other two pair or set in his range. Sadly the way that board came allows a whole lot of A-Broadway type hands to be sticking around to kill you good on that river.
 
C

Caysewell

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Since villain fold to c-bet 75% of the time, his call means he got a piece of the flop -- any pair, straight draw, flush draw.

If he hit a pair, could he have an ace kicker? A TAG would most probably reraise you preflop with AQ or AJ in BvB and AQ he'd most probably have reraised you on the flop or turn. A3 might be in his range for calling a steal raise.

Villain's AF of 6 makes me wonder what he's calling on the flop and turn with. How big a sample size do you have for villain? Any reads on how he plays flush and straight draws?
 
F

feitr

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b/f since there are lots of 2 pair hands in villain's range which wil probably call and only really aq/aj for an A. If raised villain always has an A since you can easily have an A here and ppl just don't turn 2 pair or w/e into a bluff in this situation, espcially at nl25.

fwiw @ above post, villain may have A3s in his range but never A3o and will prob fold flop and definitely turn and a guy w/ stats like this is unlikely to 3B aj/aq preflop when in position, so they are definitely possible.

c/c is terrible because villain has a made hand always on this board and is very unlikely to turn a made hand into a bluff on this river and at the same time isn't going to try to value (or bluff with) 2 pair. You guys have to think about why you would c/c instead of "omg i want to see SD and i don't want to get raised so c/c"
 
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