$25 NLHE Full Ring: Bet sizing on the river

Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/14/44

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Villain in the CO is a decent reg that Ive run into before.
15/14/44agg% and 10%3bet in 85 hands

Hero (MP1): $25.68 (102.7 bb)
CO: $29.56 (118.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9s 9d
UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 3d Kd 9h (2 players)
Hero bets $1.32, CO calls $1.32 I'm hoping he has AK at this point

Turn: ($4.49) 2h (2 players)
Hero bets $3.21, CO calls $3.21 Ok clearly he has something the 2 can't help him though

River: ($10.91) 2d (2 players) flush draw comes in if he had one and it gives me a full house nice.
How much do we bet here?

I went for full pot rather than a shove, he might also have put me on a flush draw and been scared of it. I can't see him calling a shove without a flush and if he does have a flush he can put me all in anyway.

Hero bets $10.42, CO calls $10.42

Results: $31.75 pot ($1.43 rake)
Final Board: 3d Kd 9h 2h 2d
Hero showed 9s 9d and won $30.32 ($14.62 net)
CO mucked Ac Ad and lost (-$15.70 net)
 
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Henreiman

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15/14 is getting close to nitty for a reg, and he played this AA super cautiously (I'm pumping turn for sure expecting AK/KQ/draws to pay me), so I'd consider him very tight for future analysis.

That said, I like your play. If he has the flush he's likely raising river so we're really thinking about how to get the K to pay us off. On level 2, a triple barrel on this river looks like thin value or nuts, not the best bluffing card. I probably end up betting about 2/3 pot to make him think he's getting a good price. It's tough to find a fold with AA but I would consider his willingness to pay off this big a value bet as a possible leak.
 
akaRobbo

akaRobbo

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Id bet 2/3 - 75% on the river. Considering how tight he is he probably only called you off because he was mad that slow playing aces didnt work for him. A 15/14 reg is pretty much always folding AK to your river bet IMO.
 
tbdbitl

tbdbitl

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I agree with Henreiman and akaRobbo on the bet sizing probably around $6-7 for me. I've seen too many people take the plan of check raising the river to only find the CO checks and no value is gained.

I'm miffed by the CO that he just flat called all the way to the river. But, I am getting confused by the way some are playing AA these days.

btw nice hand.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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I wouldn't count too heavily on him having a flush. He called pre- in position. He seems pretty tight, and since he can't have the Kd, what flush draws can he have? Best guess is only Ad Qd and Ad Jd. Then, he calls decent-sized flop and turn bets. Not impossible, but is this the most likely line for a tight player?

Since I assume he'd have 3bet pre- with AA or KK, his most likely holding seems to be AK. So I bet an amount he might call with that, likely about half-pot. If he did river the flush, I still have some chance to win more since he might raise.
 
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Pavelito51

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/14/44

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Villain in the CO is a decent reg that Ive run into before.
15/14/44agg% and 10%3bet in 85 hands

Hero (MP1): $25.68 (102.7 bb)
CO: $29.56 (118.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9s 9d
UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 3d Kd 9h (2 players)
Hero bets $1.32, CO calls $1.32 I'm hoping he has AK at this point

Turn: ($4.49) 2h (2 players)
Hero bets $3.21, CO calls $3.21 Ok clearly he has something the 2 can't help him though

River: ($10.91) 2d (2 players) flush draw comes in if he had one and it gives me a full house nice.
How much do we bet here?

I went for full pot rather than a shove, he might also have put me on a flush draw and been scared of it. I can't see him calling a shove without a flush and if he does have a flush he can put me all in anyway.

Hero bets $10.42, CO calls $10.42

Results: $31.75 pot ($1.43 rake)
Final Board: 3d Kd 9h 2h 2d
Hero showed 9s 9d and won $30.32 ($14.62 net)
CO mucked Ac Ad and lost (-$15.70 net)

you should not post the result of the river, comments are result oriented.

Against a LAG or fish I would play it like you but against that type of player I think check is a better option, that's his only range he calls with...
 
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hffjd2000

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You got lucky on the flop.

Totally agree on heroes play.

Totally disagree on villains play.
 
John A

John A

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If it's the 2c, I'd lean towards CR, but since people at these stakes are freaked out by possible flushes and can sometimes not value bet slim, I'd just bet at least 80-85% of pot to get value from a K or flush.
 
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