$25 NLHE Full Ring: AQo now onto the flop?

ALL IN CLUBS

ALL IN CLUBS

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$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem (9 players)
SB: $14.40 (sitting out)
BB: $18.63
UTG: $25.35 (sitting out)
UTG+1: $22.60
MP: $50.71
MP+1: $28.32 VPIP 40% PFR 11% AGG 2.3 HANDS 85
MP+2: $26.40
CO Hero: $28.49
BTN: $17.79 VPIP 15% PFR 15% AGG 2.3 HANDS 56

Pre-flop: ($0.25) Hero is CO and dealt :qs4: :ah4:
2 folds, MP+1 calls $0.25, MP+2 folds, Hero raises to $1, BTN raises to $2, BB folds, MP+1 calls $1.75, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($6.25) :3c4: :ac4: :10c4: (5 players)
MP+1 bets $1.50, Hero Ok , we pretty much talked about pre in another post that most would call. Now fish donk bets a $1.50 into a $6.25 pot , are we calling or ????
 
dwbrown7680

dwbrown7680

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He's donking into two people here with a small blocking bet so he probably has something like a worse Ace with a club. You should flat here and see how the BTN reacts, which in turn allows you to see how MP+1 reacts if BTN raises this like I think he might.
 
acky100

acky100

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Yep, and if the tight guy does raises us he isnt gonna be bluffing, and we probably should just let it go. If he folds, we own the fish.
 
Deco

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Torn between raising small or flatting here. We do have the original 3better behind us and your 3bet pos 1/6 sample means nothing. Do you have the buttons actual 3bet?
 
ALL IN CLUBS

ALL IN CLUBS

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Torn between raising small or flatting here. We do have the original 3better behind us and your 3bet pos 1/6 sample means nothing. Do you have the buttons actual 3bet?


It's says 17% (6) but it's prob counting this one in it.
 
Deco

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It's says 17% (6) but it's prob counting this one in it.

I mis-read I guess. I thought "3bet% Btn pos" from the other hand meant 3bet from button.

If it includes this hand means his 3bet% at the time was 0% (0/5). This really highlights how useless a 6hand sample is unless it's 6/6 or something crazy. Putting that stat in will make people think he's been 3betting like crazy when in fact it's his first 3bet at the table.

Being OOP to the button is going to be rough. My hope with calling is that AK/AA will raise so if he just calls we can value the fish to our hearts content. Far from guranteed though. If we raise we charge the clubs and the fish to see the next card but potentially throw money in the face of a strong Btn range. Having said that the turn would be simple enough. We can check/fold knowing QQ/KK even with a club are more likely to check whilst AK/AA bets.

The thing both these lines lose out on is value towning potentially weaker hands of the BTNs. We don't even know those weaker hands are there though. The price of taking the great odds on this hand pre meant we're in for a difficult hand postflop. I think I raise to $5. We can find out the buttons hands to a degree of accuracy on the turn. There's a good chance he has non-premiums in his range which can fold and then we're looking at the appetizing prospect of value towning the fish.
 
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baudib1

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I just call the flop because I don't like the idea of building big pots multiway on this board texture, I'm pretty much a nit on monotone flops.
 
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Styrofoam

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The first thing you need to do, is determine whether or not you are committed with top pair good kicker. The problem is because of the amount of pre-flop action, you're putting yourself in a tough situation when the flop comes, as the Pot-stack ratio is ~9.3. Ideally, you'd want 5 or lower for a hand that will likely make top pair most of the time, OR a very high PSR that will allow you to play for a small pot, and get away from a hand easily.. (Small hand, Small pot) I don't like the raise here, because you don' know what the button has. He is likely only going to call you with hands that have you beaten...even if not, he'll have a redraw almost certainly. If you raise here, and get a caller you're going to likely be put to a decision for all your chips on the turn.... and there are more profitable situations to be put in for all your chips....
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Uhhh 26.5/6 is like not 9.3.......
 
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Styrofoam

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sorry, I have NO IDEA what I did to calculate that. I was busy at work. that is my fault.


edit: I must have hit the wrong button my calculator. WOOPS. scratch what i said, the pre-flop raise was good, but I am still not sure i agree with a raise after the flop...for reasons I stated
 
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