$25 NLHE Full Ring: All in Call Good?

$25 NL HE Full Ring: All in Call Good?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29.63/18.52/1.6

BB has the stats listed above over only 27 hands, so I didn't factor that in too much.

Stacks:
MP1 with $5.10
MP2 with $1.23
(Me) MP3 with $25.15
CO with $23.25
BTN with $33.25
SB with $20.57
BB with $27.40
UTG with $31.05
UTG+1 with $5.01

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to MP3:Q♦ K♥
Sklansky group 4
Preflop:
4 players fold.
Hero raises to $0.75
3 players fold.
BB calls [$0.50]
Total folds this street: 7
Potsize: $1.6
Flop:
J♣ A♥ J♦
BB checks
Hero bets [$0.75]
BB calls [$0.75]
Potsize: $3.1

I was ready to back down after the continuation bet, but it ended up buying me a free card, which is nice. I cbetted because the villain's stats are slightly lose and I figured there was a wide range he could have called the $.50 with in the BB.
Turn:
7♣
BB checks
Hero checks
Potsize: $3.1

Villain seemed competent, so at this point I put him on a monster, most likely a jack.
River:
10♥
BB bets [$1.50]
Hero raises to $5.50
BB raises to $25.90, and is all in

Do you guys call here with the broadway? Like I said, I read that he had at least a jack. I figured he could be shoving any jack here and I should be good more than 50% of the time. Most likely hands include AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, maybe even J9s. So is a call right here? Should I have even raised on the river?

I put the range you're showing into pokerstove, added 89, 77, and TT for kicks, and show Hero as a 66% favorite... If you're confident the range is right, you should call.

Board: Js Ah Jd 7s Th
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 216 0.00 { TT, 77, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 98s, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 98o }
Hand 1: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 432 0.00 { KQo }

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Would a Villain with a 1.6 AF shove all in like this with trips? I honestly don't know, it's a real question. I realize the straight is pretty well hidden. I'd be more comfortable calling a 3 or 4 AF rather than a 1.6.

The most confusing part of this hand for me is villian's small $1.50 bet and then the $20+ shove. I don't think the straight does that after you reraise him, I would give him credit for the nuts(or at least one of the full houses). What do you guys think?

I don't know if the villain is checking behind you on that turn with a jack. Of all the hands in his range, I think 10 10 is a very strong possibility, although we may see a reraise preflop with 10 10. I think the nut straight is huge here only really loosing to 1010 or J7 (which would explain the check on the turn). Really tough decision, given this information I would call and hope to not see J7.

well villain didn't check behind me. villain checked to me, hoping I would bet into him again, which is why i believed he had the jack since that's how 90% of people would play it 80% of the time.

xinsomniacboix said:

well villain didn't check behind me. villain checked to me, hoping I would bet into him again, which is why i believed he had the jack since that's how 90% of people would play it 80% of the time.

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lol sorry, i'm a little tired. yeah he checked to you. The allin is really weird on the river, do you see him doing this with just a jack? He has to have a boat. I know I said call before, but the more I think of it, the more I am leaning towards folding.

slycbnew said:

Would a Villain with a 1.6 AF shove all in like this with trips? I honestly don't know, it's a real question. I realize the straight is pretty well hidden. I'd be more comfortable calling a 3 or 4 AF rather than a 1.6.

Click to expand...

I would ignore the AF stat, at 27hands it is completely inaccurate.


JT and AJ would do this all day long. 6combos
so too would KQ 9combos
QJ and KJ its player dependant. 6 combos

As it stands I'm gunna recommend folding as even at 25NL I don't think most players are 3betting QJ-KJ on the river especially how they fired that small bet out in the hope of 3betting.

Deco said:

I would ignore the AF stat, at 27hands it is completely inaccurate.


JT and AJ would do this all day long. 6combos
so too would KQ 9combos
QJ and KJ its player dependant. 6 combos

As it stands I'm gunna recommend folding as even at 25NL I don't think most players are 3betting QJ-KJ on the river especially how they fired that small bet out in the hope of 3betting.

Click to expand...

Yeah, that's what I figured it basically came down to. I called with the dead money in there figuring that for the 20% chance or whatever that he's a fish, I would be good most of the time. I felt like he wasn't 3 betting me with QJ or KJ if he was a solid player. Should I have even raised the river in the first place? I knew he was strong, but I wanted to get value in case he had QJ or KJ.

Anyways, he ended up having AJ and I got stacked off.

Also, unrelated, is Deco referring to the soccer player?

xinsomniacboix said:

Yeah, that's what I figured it basically came down to. I called with the dead money in there figuring that for the 20% chance or whatever that he's a fish, I would be good most of the time. I felt like he wasn't 3 betting me with QJ or KJ if he was a solid player. Should I have even raised the river in the first place? I knew he was strong, but I wanted to get value in case he had QJ or KJ.

Anyways, he ended up having AJ and I got stacked off.

Also, unrelated, is Deco referring to the soccer player?

Click to expand...

I'd raise on the condition we have already planned to fold the river.

Its been me nickname the past few years, Declan-Deco.

I wouldn't raise that river, his line suggests strength, his river bet screamed 'plz call, im slowplayin'. Obviously you're not folding, but by raising the river you end up either facing a river shove which you probably have the odds to call, even if his range crushes you. Or you scare away Ax.

A general point I'd make is hand strength is relative. On that board, Broadway is a good hand, but not a great one. Most times, I wouldn't be calling an all-in bet in this situation....prior to reading your outcome I was thinking AJ was a likely hand for villian.

TheDoc said:

A general point I'd make is hand strength is relative. On that board, Broadway is a good hand, but not a great one. Most times, I wouldn't be calling an all-in bet in this situation....prior to reading your outcome I was thinking AJ was a likely hand for villian.

Click to expand...

I mean I realize that broadway is not a good hand on this board, but at the time, i reasoned that the number of combinations of just trips = the number of combinations of boats. As long as I could say that the villain would play trips the same way, I figured with the dead money in there, it would not be unprofitable. Of course, I realize I should have given the villain more credit, and now I know that I shouldn't raise in similar situations in the future. Thanks for the advice everyone.