$25 NLHE Full Ring: AK TPTK gets 3-bet turn

Stick66

Stick66

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 10, 2005
Total posts
6,374
Chips
0
$25 NL HE Full Ring: AK TPTK gets 3-bet turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 56/5/2

Only 39 hands on the villain. Read not very good yet. His "Calls Open" is 46%.

My turn decision is 3.26-1 pot odds. No sense in leaving $6 in my stack, so I figure it's shove or fold. Opinions?


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players

MP3: $5 (20 bb)
Hero (CO): $24.05 (96.2 bb)
BTN: $8.20 (32.8 bb)
SB: $31 (124 bb)
BB: $4.20 (16.8 bb)
MP1: $12 (48 bb)
MP2: $5.90 (23.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K
heart4.gif
A
diamond4.gif

3 folds, Hero raises to $1, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($3.25) 2
heart4.gif
8
heart4.gif
K
diamond4.gif
(3 players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN folds, SB calls $2

Turn: ($7.75) T
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $6, SB raises to $14.75, Hero ???????


Since it's Xmas, I'll leave this up a couple days before I post the results.
 
Mase31683

Mase31683

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 27, 2008
Total posts
1,474
Awards
1
Chips
1
This is a pretty pure baluga theorem. You fire on the flop, fire on the turn, get jammed on. Top pair is good here almost never.
 
S93

S93

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Total posts
6,154
Chips
0
This is a pretty pure baluga theorem. You fire on the flop, fire on the turn, get jammed on. Top pair is good here almost never.
meh i kinda like ignoring beluga here because villain min donks flop and donks the turn on a drawy board and is a what looks like a megafish.
I wouldnt be surprised if he showed us the FD here alot and the fact that he is running a 56/5(over small sample,but still) means there are gonna be a alot of kings in his range as well.
I think villain is gonna do this with FD,Kx(KT pretty likly imo),2pair+ and stuff like ThXh.

I just cant fold TPTK to this guy no matter what some golden rule says, i jam and feel pretty good about, might throw in a small fistpump.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Raise the flop bigger, stack off when he does this weird crap. No fist pump tho.
 
Mase31683

Mase31683

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 27, 2008
Total posts
1,474
Awards
1
Chips
1
Why does he wait for the turn to 3bet? He has more equity for the flush draw on the flop, plus we've only cbet which can hardly be viewed as strength these days. He should expect a good amount of FE there I'd think.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
He should expect a good amount of FE there I'd think.
Your villain is a 56/5. He doesn't know what fold equity is. I have no idea why he's playing this way, or what he thinks he's doing, but I get it in here with TPTK against these guys who can't think straight.
 
Stick66

Stick66

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 10, 2005
Total posts
6,374
Chips
0
Looks like split opinions here. I hate to interupt the debate so soon with the results, so I'll wait until tomorrow evening.

Just some more thoughts to stoke the fire:

- Is a 56/5 with a larger stack "lucky & dumb" or might he be good at playing a LAP style (if it's even possible)?

- To me, his AF of 2 and his Calls Open of 46% tells us that he likes to see flops and float some. Am I right? And how do we know when he hits a flop?
 
Stick66

Stick66

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 10, 2005
Total posts
6,374
Chips
0
Looks like this thread has died. Not enough birdhouses or malfunctioning remotes, I guess.

I folded. I read his AF of 2 as not being tricky enough to raise the river with anything less than 2 pair.
 
Debi

Debi

Forum Admin
Administrator
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Total posts
74,638
Awards
20
Chips
1,331
Looks like this thread has died. Not enough birdhouses or malfunctioning remotes, I guess.

I folded. I read his AF of 2 as not being tricky enough to raise the river with anything less than 2 pair.

Wasn't expecting me to pop in here I guess.
 
S93

S93

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Total posts
6,154
Chips
0
Looks like split opinions here. I hate to interupt the debate so soon with the results, so I'll wait until tomorrow evening.

Just some more thoughts to stoke the fire:

- Is a 56/5 with a larger stack "lucky & dumb" or might he be good at playing a LAP style (if it's even possible)?

- To me, his AF of 2 and his Calls Open of 46% tells us that he likes to see flops and float some. Am I right? And how do we know when he hits a flop?
I remeber a thread from the math forum a while ago when some one was debating if u could play a profitable 60/10 style(or something similar that, dont remeber details) and the usualy response was "isnt possible unless u have Iveys postflop skils", im pretty sure some one with Iveys postflop skils wouldnt be playing 25nl :D.

His AF means nothing after 39hands. AF needs 100 or maybe even thousands of hands before it becomes relavent, VP/PFR are alot sooner to converge then AF(even though VP/PFR hasnt converged after 39hands we can still resonable asume he is a moron because it converges sooner).
So i really hate folding here based on his AF, he is a fish and fish do dumb stuff and i really expect to us to have his range beat here.

Also u do realize that some one that runs a 8/8 would be pretty passive with a 2AF and some one like this that runs a 56/5/2 is quiet aggressive postflop?
 
M

Marginal

Junior Member
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 28, 2009
Total posts
10,426
Awards
3
Chips
2
I understand the fold but I just can't for the life of me see myself folding. pot odds are so good I do not think you have to be good that often for it to be profitable. Only need to be good about 32% of the time. Maybe I'm a station but I can't fold this.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Sorry late to this but just go ahead and put him in here. This min donk crap is like never a real hand so I'm totally confused by the turn 3bet. When I get confused, I call. His line makes zero sense.

Edit: Also an AF of 2 for someone who plays more than 1/2 his hands is huge, especially since basically all his aggression comes postflop. He's basically a LP pre and a maniac post. Never fold TP to this idiot.
 
Stick66

Stick66

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 10, 2005
Total posts
6,374
Chips
0
Wasn't expecting me to pop in here I guess.
Huh? Relax, kid. I meant people are more interested in those things.

I guess I should have said "Tiger Woods or offensive word requests". Sheesh.
 
Stick66

Stick66

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 10, 2005
Total posts
6,374
Chips
0
Thanks guys. Looks like I would have been correct had it not been for his 56% VPIP. I need to start putting all that together on the fly.

Lately, I've been getting killed at showdown by doubting donks like this. Normally, I would have called this. But I've been trying to limit the bleeding when I can. Guess I need to find the balance.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Watch yourself. It sounds like a few recent bad beats have got you gun shy.

Just try not to be too results oriented, figure out how your play fairs against his range, and continue making +EV plays. The results will work themselves out.
 
BLieve

BLieve

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 25, 2009
Total posts
224
Chips
0
Your villain is a 56/5. He doesn't know what fold equity is. I have no idea why he's playing this way, or what he thinks he's doing, but I get it in here with TPTK against these guys who can't think straight.

When his bet sizes and patterns make sense, thats when you should be worried :D

Sorry late to this but just go ahead and put him in here. This min donk crap is like never a real hand so I'm totally confused by the turn 3bet. When I get confused, I call. His line makes zero sense.

Edit: Also an AF of 2 for someone who plays more than 1/2 his hands is huge, especially since basically all his aggression comes postflop. He's basically a LP pre and a maniac post. Never fold TP to this idiot.
When I get confused I fold. You seen people limp then 4 or 5 bet PF with AA and KK. In this situation I think the ten might have helped him either add another draw (gutshot or open ended or flush) or he hit the ten with another draw. Im all in here.
 
Top