$25 NLHE Full Ring: AK TPTK raised c-bet from Nit

S93

S93

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: AK TPTK raised c-bet from Nit

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 9/5/7

Villain is aggro but he is also nitty and hasnt been out of line.
Sample is also kinda small(119 hands) to judge AF.
This is the kinda spot that gets my into trouble since i dont see how i can flat and fold turn since im resonably sure he is double barreling every thing he raises flop with and i dont like shoving cause i play terrible against his calling range.

MP2: $29.85 (119.4 bb)
MP3: $26.75 (107 bb)
CO: $27.40 (109.6 bb)
BTN: $26 (104 bb)
SB: $28.65 (114.6 bb)
BB: $23.40 (93.6 bb)
UTG: $13.50 (54 bb)
UTG+1: $26 (104 bb)
Hero (MP1): $31.20 (124.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with K
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A
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UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.25, 4 folds

Flop: ($3.10) A
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6
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J
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(2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, CO raises to $7.25, Hero folds

Good fold or is C9 gonna fly over here and hit my in the head and call my a nit?:p.
 
Tygran

Tygran

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Good fold or is C9 gonna fly over here and hit my in the head and call my a nit?:p.

He needs a reason to do that? ;)


On a more serious note... 9/5/7 is as you say..very nitty and VERY aggressive (7 AF is extremely high...)

Do you have a number for how often he raises a cbet out of curiosity?

I don't mind the fold here. We don't really want to play for stacks with this hand vs this opponent... I just can't see him having ANY worse than AK as well and this sorta reeks of either a set or AJ (unlikely with those stats) although I guess he could have a diamond draw but I'm going to discount that some since a 9/5 is generally not calling very often with Axs

With that aggression factor..if we flat and check, and then fold to another bet, that's a lot worse than just folding now. Continuing by either calling or raising is more or less committing us to go all the way here.

just my .02 anyways.
 
S93

S93

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He needs a reason to do that? ;)


On a more serious note... 9/5/7 is as you say..very nitty and VERY aggressive (7 AF is extremely high...)

Do you have a number for how often he raises a cbet out of curiosity?

I don't mind the fold here. We don't really want to play for stacks with this hand vs this opponent... I just can't see him having ANY worse than AK as well and this sorta reeks of either a set or AJ (unlikely with those stats) although I guess he could have a diamond draw but I'm going to discount that some since a 9/5 is generally not calling very often with Axs

With that aggression factor..if we flat and check, and then fold to another bet, that's a lot worse than just folding now. Continuing by either calling or raising is more or less committing us to go all the way here.

just my .02 anyways.
Just checked and he has 80% fold to c-bet and 20% raise c-bet,but again sample is only 119 hands so im not sure how meaningfull those stats are after such a small sample.
 
Richyl2008

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Fold is fine Imo. If he hasn't gotten out of line up to this point, I'd go ahead and give him the benefit of the doubt. This is the type of guy you don't want to give much action to, without pretty close to the nuts.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Fold is fine, although I think his range is wider than sets here. We don't give nits action without the nuts (or air).

...but you're still a nit.

EDIT - Even if he does this with KQs, and AQ, you're still not loving your hand.

Hand 0: 40.198% { AcKh }
Hand 1: 59.802% { JJ, 66, AJs+, KdQd, AJo+ }

I'd say his actual range is more like this:

Hand 0: 73.100% { JJ, 66, AKs, KdQd, AKo }
Hand 1: 26.900% { AcKh }
 
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NineLions

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7 aggression is not totally out of line for a nit, imo; they usually only play premiums and get married to them.

But 5 PFR is low; I'd expect 8 or at least 7 with a VP$IP of 9. So I don't mind a fold either. 66 is unlikely for a 9/5 in early position but JJ/AJ isn't given his gap between VPIP and PFR. It may also be AK, but unless it's AKd or maybe AQd I don't usually see nits this aggressive with draws. Maybe 'cause they don't often have them; they're usually in with overpairs.
 
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