$25 NLHE Full Ring: AK gets 4 bet after original raiser folds

NineLions

NineLions

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: AK gets 4 bet after original raiser folds

What does this look like to you?

Villain is 30/8/8 but only over 30 hands or so. How good or aggressive is a 30/8 at $25nl?


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($10.10)
UTG+1 ($3.50)
MP1 ($13.65)
MP2 ($4.65)
MP3 ($26.05)
CO ($29.30)
Hero (Button) ($24.50)
SB ($4.75)
BB ($25.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A
diamond.gif
, K
diamond.gif

4 folds,
MP3 bets $0.75, CO calls $0.75,
Hero raises to $3, 3 folds,
CO raises to $9
Hero ???
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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This is a small pair like 95% of the time. Just jam it in & flip with the extra money in the pot.
 
Munchrs

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why would we jam? Thats horrible. We get it against small pairs, coz villian never 4bet folds, where we are slight dog, or we get it in against big pairs were we a re a huge dog. A small % we are splitting against AK, but not enough to make this a shove or call. Unless we get a better read on villian then i fold, especially at FR as people just dont get in pre with worse than AK ever unless they suck and we dont know if villian sucks.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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why would we jam? Thats horrible.
Well lets make a crazy assumption that villain has the following shoving range:

Hand 0: 49.442% { 22+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 50.558% { AKs }

You can tweak it any way you like, but you're essentially going to be a flip against his range unless you assign him a range of something totally unrealistic.

Given we're a flip against his range, we'd need 1:1 pot odds to make that shove profitable, and we're getting better than 1:1. Taa daaa, instant profitz.
 
Munchrs

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Well lets make a crazy assumption that villain has the following shoving range:

Hand 0: 49.442% { 22+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 50.558% { AKs }

You can tweak it any way you like, but you're essentially going to be a flip against his range unless you assign him a range of something totally unrealistic.

Given we're a flip against his range, we'd need 1:1 pot odds to make that shove profitable, and we're getting better than 1:1. Taa daaa, instant profitz.

thats exactly my point. we have like 1% equity assuming your ranges are perfect. Why would we put ourselves in such a high varience spot. If you remove AJo and AJs from that range which is probable that villian wont get it in with then whats our equity like?(no pokerstove on laptop:?)

also im abit lost on your pot odds bit vs profitability concept, linkage please. Yes I know im incredibly stupid.
 
WVHillbilly

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We have 49.89% if you take AJ out of his range. But the $5 already in the pot means we don't need to get better than 50%. Also you're neglecting the fact that despite putting in more than 1/3 of the effective stack sizes villain could still fold (it does happen).
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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also im abit lost on your pot odds bit vs profitability concept, linkage please. Yes I know im incredibly stupid.
If we flip a coin, and I risk $1 to win $1, then that will break even, yeah?

This is the same situation essentially, with one key difference. We're risking $21.50 to win $28.60 (assuming villain calls 100% of the time).

Or, if you like math:

EV = (0.5)*$28.60 - (0.5)*$21.5 = $14.30 - $10.75 = +$3.55

I mean, it just seems like an incredibly stupidly simple poker concept. If we have better pot odds than our chance of winning, then we make money.
 
Munchrs

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If we flip a coin, and I risk $1 to win $1, then that will break even, yeah?

This is the same situation essentially, with one key difference. We're risking $21.50 to win $28.60 (assuming villain calls 100% of the time).

Or, if you like math:

EV = (0.5)*$28.60 - (0.5)*$21.5 = $14.30 - $10.75 = +$3.55

I mean, it just seems like an incredibly stupidly simple poker concept. If we have better pot odds than our chance of winning, then we make money.

I know its a basic concept, I was just having trouble understanding it in terms of vs a bet on the same street.

maths is good. I see your point.

What is the tightest range that villian could have where a call here is still profitable?
 
NineLions

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I can see a small/medium pair doing this. My problem was that the raise size was good which surprised me, which made my initial reaction to be AA/KK that wanted to play in position against the original raise and now saw the opportunity to backraise.

My second line of thinking was that he saw me seeing a squeeze opportunity, implying that my range might be wider than normally required for a 3 bet so he can widen his backraise range if he holds say JJ/TT/99. But I think that I'm giving a 30/8 too much credit with that line of thinking.

I was gonna add that I don't see AQ/AJ doing this, but then I remembered losing with KK in a similar situation where I 3 bet from the blinds and AJs backraised, just the day before.
 
WVHillbilly

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I know its a basic concept, I was just having trouble understanding it in terms of vs a bet on the same street.

maths is good. I see your point.

What is the tightest range that villian could have where a call here is still profitable?

If he calls with only with pairs 77+ we're losing 12 cents on the shove.

If he calls with AK (and he always does), even JJ+/AK is still profitable (about 5 cents).
 
Munchrs

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If he calls with only with pairs 77+ we're losing 12 cents on the shove.

If he calls with AK (and he always does), even JJ+/AK is still profitable (about 5 cents).

well if his range can be that tight and its still profitable, then unless your a nit like me get it in.
 
rwilson

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If he calls with only with pairs 77+ we're losing 12 cents on the shove.

If he calls with AK (and he always does), even JJ+/AK is still profitable (about 5 cents).


Really on the JJ+/AK? How does that work when you're murdered by AA, KK, and you flip with all the other hands.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Really on the JJ+/AK? How does that work when you're murdered by AA, KK, and you flip with all the other hands.

dead money, and very few combos of AA and KK when we hold AK.
 
rwilson

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Very situational on whether it's a profit or loss move. You'd have to be counting the cents each time this comes up to work out whether its + or - EV

You'd be amazed how many times a preflop 4 bet is AA, KK, QQ in 25nl
 
WVHillbilly

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Very situational on whether it's a profit or loss move. You'd have to be counting the cents each time this comes up to work out whether its + or - EV

You'd be amazed how many times a preflop 4 bet is AA, KK, QQ in 25nl

But it's not a real 4bet. He flatted a PFR and then back raised what to him looks like a standard squeeze. This is QQ+ very very rarely. This is a 77-JJ almost always with AQ being in range as well. Get the $$ in preflop.
 
rwilson

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Yeah I agree his range is likely to be much wider than JJ+ in this hand, I was more just questioning how profitable a call with AK could be against a range of JJ+ in general.

In this case it would have been profitable because of what's already in the middle.. there'd be a lot of spots where it wouldn't be.
 
Last edited:
BLieve

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Well lets make a crazy assumption that villain has the following shoving range:

Hand 0: 49.442% { 22+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 50.558% { AKs }

You can tweak it any way you like, but you're essentially going to be a flip against his range unless you assign him a range of something totally unrealistic.

Given we're a flip against his range, we'd need 1:1 pot odds to make that shove profitable, and we're getting better than 1:1. Taa daaa, instant profitz.

If this wasnt played by the villain like a backwards 14 year old 5th grader, I would shove but I have to assign at least a 25% if not a 50% chance to AA or KK to a play like this. While my experience witnessing these situations are limited, I say I seen this retarded move about 10 times from 5NL to 25NL, I believe at least half the time villain was holding KK AA. Their thinking goes something along the lines of omg wet my panties I have a huge hand let me not scare anyone with a raise so I can get some money for it. Omg someone raised for me ok let me reraise him and hope he goes all in.

I can see a small/medium pair doing this. My problem was that the raise size was good which surprised me, which made my initial reaction to be AA/KK that wanted to play in position against the original raise and now saw the opportunity to backraise.

My second line of thinking was that he saw me seeing a squeeze opportunity, implying that my range might be wider than normally required for a 3 bet so he can widen his backraise range if he holds say JJ/TT/99. But I think that I'm giving a 30/8 too much credit with that line of thinking.

I was gonna add that I don't see AQ/AJ doing this, but then I remembered losing with KK in a similar situation where I 3 bet from the blinds and AJs backraised, just the day before.

Yup I was surprised at the proper raise size as well. Lets not give him too much credit though. Homie is 30/8 the only thing he squeezes are lemons in his drink after a losing session. Its either -$3 or $22 to flip. If this is the beginning of a session I would definitely fold.
 
ljove

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you can fold or call to see if you hit something
but i think that fold is ok here
you don't need to reraise them preflop
you got AK not nut hand
 
BelgoSuisse

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you can fold or call to see if you hit something
but i think that fold is ok here
you don't need to reraise them preflop
you got AK not nut hand

Wat?

Seriously, shove > fold >> call in this spot. Calling with ak to see if you hit is really terrible. You re going to miss most of the time, and when you do hit you wont get paid by worse because the board will be scary.
 
Weregoat

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From Villians POV -
"Hrm, call the raise and set mine. Come on six!"

OP Raises.

"The pot's been reraised. If I call the raise I'm 12% to hit a set on the flop - then I must fold if I miss, unless my 66 covers the board, then i shove and get no call - if I raise here I risk a reraise here, giving me odds to flip a coing against two overs - Please don't have 77-AA! - Also, maybe he'll fold!"

OP - shove here. He's gonna call a small raise then reraise with AA or KK? If he does I'd buddy him, and see how often he does that little number.
 
BLieve

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From Villians POV -
"Hrm, call the raise and set mine. Come on six!"

OP Raises.

"The pot's been reraised. If I call the raise I'm 12% to hit a set on the flop - then I must fold if I miss, unless my 66 covers the board, then i shove and get no call - if I raise here I risk a reraise here, giving me odds to flip a coing against two overs - Please don't have 77-AA! - Also, maybe he'll fold!"

OP - shove here. He's gonna call a small raise then reraise with AA or KK? If he does I'd buddy him, and see how often he does that little number.

My friend I think we are giving the villain too much credit. At most he understands that overcards are a flip against him. He has no idea where 12% comes from. Granted this move does not happen often but the times I have seen it pulled have convinced me to fold.
 
BLieve

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Aint this a bitch, look what happened just now.

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($65.29)
SB ($18)
Hero (BB) ($59.30)
UTG ($49.25)
UTG+1 ($53.84)
MP1 ($41.20)
MP2 ($9.50)
MP3 ($85.28)
CO ($25.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K
diamond.gif
, K
heart.gif

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO bets $3.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $11.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $9 (All-In), 1 fold

Flop: ($23.50) Q
heart.gif
, 5
diamond.gif
, 4
diamond.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($23.50) 4
heart.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($23.50) 3
heart.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $23.50 | Rake: $1.65

For whatever reason, I cant seem to convert the rest of my hand but the limp raiser had surprise surprise AA. I was just happy that the idiot only had a $10 stack.
 
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