$25 NLHE Full Ring: AA vs. QT64 board facing check-raise all-in

Villain has $27.35
I have $24.62

Preflop:
Everyone folds to 4th person who opens $1
Everyone folds to the Button (me) holding who makes it $3
Everone folds to 4th guy who calls

Flop($6.35)
Villain checks
I bet $3.17
Villain calls

Turn($11.99)
Villain checks
I bet $6.77
Villain shoves all-in for $21.18
I have to call $11.68 in order to match it making $51.62 cents in the pot.

Should I call? A lot of hands beat me, but the price is quite nice. What should I do?

call here and see the river. Any data about villain?

No data about Villain whatsoever. What range do you think I can realistically put him on?

tomnovember said:

call here and see the river. Any data about villain?

Click to expand...

Call and see the river... He's all-in.

I call it off anyway.

Either he has you beat or he is bluffing.

Anyway, I have no question on the play except your bet amount on every street.

since you are getting about 4.5:1 odds to call, doesn't that mean as long as you have a ~20% chance to win on the river then you are getting break even odds for calling?

Also, the fact that he called your $3 raise out of position makes me think (if he were to have a better hand) that a set is more likely than 2 pair here for him.

Unfortunately any set here puts you only at a 5% chance to win on the river.

If he has 2 pair though you have around 18% chance of winning on the river (almost break even odds). I can't see him having any 2 pair but q 10 suited here though.

I would agree this is a tough call, especially since we don't know anything about Villain.

Factoring in the possibility that he is bluffing because he doesn't believe you though (or he could always have KK, AQs), I think this makes the call worth it. I'm interested to know what he ended up having.

Call, fist-pump. You have an aces in a 3-bet pot.

Post flop play is bad as if you wanted to be check-raised. This is a fold unless I have history on the villain that he is a bad player.

I agree with what others have said, in that without more information on your opponent, it is hard to say much. Alhough from observing these situations, a limp call by villain here more often than not tells me that (s)he has, based on how this has all played out, a set (most likely 66, though if they are a bit of a station, might have 44 and got really lucky on the turn).

Remember, you just have one pair and there is a lot that beats you, at least that is the story villain is trying to tell you here.

You do say a lot of hands beat you here, but let's turn this back around to you and ask you this, "What hands are you really beating here?"

I suppose there is a small chance that villain has Kings here and thinks you are on a draw, but I doubt you're limp calling that hand with any frequency. Maybe AQ or AT as well, but I don't feel any of those hands are there. You are beating flush and straight draws but again unless villain is super aggro, I doubt those hands are in their range.

That said, I am finding a fold here, but that is looking at this in a vacuum without much information.

If you did call, can you please post the outcome for us.

The call flop, check-raise turn line OOP is usually 2 pair+ so it is quite difficult to think of hands I can beat. KJ of diamonds or some other creative flush draw may show up as well as AQ.

QQ, TT, 66, and QT are the main hands that beat me I believe.

AA versus QQ, TT, 66, QT, KdJd and 2 combos of AQ are about 22.19% which is about break even.

There are 6 possible AQ combos he can possibly have at this point, given he calls with them preflop, so he needs to be playing this way with AQ 33% of the time in order for the call to be break even. Give a couple more random creative flush draws or other hands and it could be a bit less needed. Regardless, I believe it is close.


I did call and he flipped over KK to my pleasant surprise. KK is pretty rare to see in this spot so I can't really factor it much into the range calculation (If I include KK then I have to include 44 etc...). Wasn't sure at the time this call was good, but after doing my calculation above I believe it is actually slightly correct.


Some of you have mentioned that my post flop bet sizing was bad. What about it would you have done differently?

Also if you feel my hand range I assigned him is wrong I'd like to know.

honestly I think your bet sizing was fine. You bet half pot each street and if you look at the size of the pot on the turn and your remaining stack you have already committed half your stack with just standard half pot bets.


If anything, a bigger bet on the flop maybe because you are facing flush and straight draws. Overall, good analysis!