$25 NLHE Full Ring: AA against semi-wide range

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/8/2.4

Carbon Poker - $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem (9 players)
Party Poker Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

BU: $32.95
BB: $25.09
UTG: $25.00
MP: $26.06
MP+1: $10.16
MP+2: $24.10
LP: $24.65
CO: $5.65
BTN Hero: $24.94

Pre-flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN and dealt
6 folds, Hero raises $1.00, BU folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) (2 players)
BB bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

Turn: ($6.30) (2 players)
BB bets $4.20, Hero calls $4.20

River: ($14.70) (2 players)
BB bets $7.35, Hero raises $17.64 (All-in), BB calls $10.29

Do you think he calls the river with less than quads often enough for the shove to be profitable?

This is very much like those suckout hands.There is only K that beats your hand and he probably has it.
But there is other side:
He has pocket pair and don't believe that you have AA.
He think you are stealer

Why are u raising is bet on the river?
Well or he have the K (since he call'd that's the most likely card he would have or he did have some sort of 4X or PP).

WVHillbilly said:

Do you think he calls the river with less than quads often enough for the shove to be profitable?

Click to expand...

I'm going to say yes

WVHillbilly said:

Do you think he calls the river with less than quads often enough for the shove to be profitable?

Click to expand...

Actually I do. I've seen him call down 3 streets with small PP on a board full of overcards so I've got good reason to believe that he would be calling here thinking I'm trying to steal.

His betting OOP was not typical of the play I'd seen from him, he was usually c/c or c/f. That made me think his range here was 77+, QJs, or possibly but not likely x4. So he had a hand or draw and wanted to protect it by betting out with PSB.

Pretty sure that a raise anywhere before the river would have likely resulted in a fold. But doing it there with the flush card hitting looked like a steal and his boat would take down a nice pot.

If he ever thinks you're raising a rivered flush, he must think you're an idiot.

That could very well be true, he ended up flipping and leaving the table promptly.