$25 NLHE Full Ring: Is this a call/fold river? Two pair AJ

M

masadad

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partypoker - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 55.96 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 1)
BB: 105.84 BB (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
UTG: 165.64 BB (VPIP: 13.92, PFR: 8.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.84, Hands: 311)
UTG+1: 113.08 BB (VPIP: 9.84, PFR: 8.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 63)
Hero (MP): 96.44 BB
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.20, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 98)
CO: 109.48 BB (VPIP: 22.98, PFR: 15.36, 3Bet Preflop: 3.29, Hands: 928)
BTN: 157.52 BB (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 8.62, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:club: J:spade:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) A:diamond: 4:club: 7:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets 7.12 BB, CO raises to 15.44 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.32 BB

Turn: (40.88 BB, 2 players) J:club:
Hero checks, CO bets 19.4 BB, Hero calls 19.4 BB

River: (79.68 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:
Hero checks, CO bets 54 BB
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Im a fan of checking the flop... we dont have many worse hands calling.

Hmmm looks like a set because what else would raise that flop?? Unles they had ak etc but u werent 3betted

We want to keep the pot size modest. Soon as the hand starts to get out of control you gotta lay it down

Ajoff not the best oop
 
dj11

dj11

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928 hands against this villain, besides the stats, what do you know about him?

He only called pre. No re-pop pre, which probably rules out AA. Come along with 44, 77 seams reasonable. But so would any suited Ace.

His flop re-raise might be his tell. If he hit a set, wouldn't you think he would slow down some just to keep you, and your possible bluff active?

I think I'm calling that river.
 
M

masadad

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yes he did have a set. he had 44.

now is this a fold or a call is fine too? he could easily have A4 A7 and do that raise?

goal of that cbet was to get hands like 56s and lower pocket pairs to fold and also protect the hand from draws. i wanted to take it down on the flop.
 
dnegsisabadreg

dnegsisabadreg

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yes he did have a set. he had 44.

now is this a fold or a call is fine too? he could easily have A4 A7 and do that raise?

goal of that cbet was to get hands like 56s and lower pocket pairs to fold and also protect the hand from draws. i wanted to take it down on the flop.

I don't think he has A4 or A7 very often. He could definitely raise those hands, but is he really calling with them pre? I think most players just lay that down in full ring.
 
IPlay

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Fold that flop when a reggish player raises on that board texture. AJ is as good as A2 here as in you are bluft catching
 
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Weisssound

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partypoker - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 55.96 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: 105.84 BB (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
UTG: 165.64 BB (VPIP: 13.92, PFR: 8.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.84, Hands: 311)
UTG+1: 113.08 BB (VPIP: 9.84, PFR: 8.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 63)
Hero (MP): 96.44 BB
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.20, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 98)
CO: 109.48 BB (VPIP: 22.98, PFR: 15.36, 3Bet Preflop: 3.29, Hands: 928)
BTN: 157.52 BB (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 8.62, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A<font color='black'>♣</font> J<font color='black'>♠</font>

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) A<font color='red'>♦</font> 4<font color='black'>♣</font> 7<font color='black'>♠</font>
SB checks, Hero bets 7.12 BB, CO raises to 15.44 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.32 BB

Turn: (40.88 BB, 2 players) J<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero checks, CO bets 19.4 BB, Hero calls 19.4 BB

River: (79.68 BB, 2 players) 9<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero checks, CO bets 54 BB


Raise is fine. C-bet on the flop is fine.

The min raise is a little odd. It's a pretty disconnected board, so the only draw doing this is 56s. There's only 4 of those. The value hands are A7s, A4s, 77, and 44. I think we discount AA because there's only 1 combo and no 3-bet pre flop. I think we also discount AK, AQ - that's a bit ambitious to min raise, and again no 3-bet pre flop. So that's like 6 sets, 1 combo A7 hearts and 1 combo of A4 hearts... because all other suited 2pair Aces are blocked.

I'm not normally one for folding to a min raise... but in this case, we are usually behind, have only 3 cards to improve on, and we might still be behind pretty often even when we improve.

So in order to call this min raise we need to think the CO will turn 88, 99, TT, 66, 55, 33, 22 or total air into a bluff.... and do it by min raising. Seems unlikely. Even if we put all combos of A7 in his range, we still only improve on those three jacks.

To me, this makes the best play to fold the flop.

As played, when we see the Jack on the turn we have to ask if all A7 combos are in his range or not, and does he double barrel 56s? Judging by stats... I doubt all A7 combos are in his range. Therefore the jack doesn't really change much. We now beat 2 combos and are ahead of 56s - so that puts us pretty even against his range if we think he fires 56s again. Which again, is an if.

So if we call here, we have give him all combos of A7, and assume he fires a second bullet with 56s.

The 9 doesn't change anything. So if we assume the ranges that get us here, unless villain over bets the pot, we should call. But I think the best play is to fold the flop, by a slight margin because the bet is small. If not, certainly fold the turn.
 
H

hffjd2000

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Surely its a fold river in my part. I believe him.

I like your play since our hand is live. But going for river, surely we are beat here and most likely he is milking us.

Less likely he is on a bluff mode at this point.
 
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Weisssound

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Drawing live to 4 outs if you are behind. You need 3:1, or 25% in the hand to call the turn. You have 8% equity. It's a clear fold on the turn.
 
Aces2w1n

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You know if you want to play these hands just check the flop and get value of underpairs and weak Aces.. gotta play more conservative though n takes discipline
 
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Weisssound

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I think this hand is super interesting, so I made a video of my analysis.

 
M

masadad

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I think this hand is super interesting, so I made a video of my analysis.

thanks and great analysis. i totally agree with you on calling the river. since i called the turn i had to call that river. that is what got me confused. but should have folded the flop raise. can't really blame myself for calling that river where my mistake was on the flop which i failed to realize.
 
Figaroo2

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Nice video Weissound
I think the CO at 22/15 is clearly wide enough to have something like A7s A4s in this spot, I wouldn't discount it. In which case how many of us at this level are good enough 'in play and multi-tabling' to fold on the flop, very few. Well played by the villain and unlucky for hero to hit 2pair.
 
Beanfacekilla

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I have some input.


I did read some of the replies before posting, I shouldn't have.


I was thinking initially, villain would not raise the flop with a hand we beat.

Preflop is fine. C-bet is mandatory IMO. Whoever suggested checking flop, I don't understand why we would ever check flop. No offense aces2win. Just seems nitty to check flop.


However, when we get raised on the flop, we have a decision. We are clearly behind, unless villain is semi bluffing with OESD, or if he is just crafty in general. But in this case, I just assume 2P+. So by calling, we are hoping to get lucky. Best case scenario, we are up against 2P. However, sets are a valid concern.

So our decision is this, fold or continue on. But we will have to call more bets. We will have to improve. Folding flop is probably a little cautious, but I still say fold.

We will obviously be OOP for the remainder of the hand, and we don't even have TPTK.


Fold flop. If I was playing my a game, that's what I would do. However, calling is pretty alluring. Such a good price. But we are almost always way behind.
 
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