$25 NLHE Full Ring: 44 flopped FH. I didn't see that river card coming. Should i always bet turn here?

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masadad

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$25 NLHE Full Ring: 44 flopped FH. I didn't see that river card coming. Should i always bet turn here?

partypoker - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $22.42 (VPIP: 15.37, PFR: 4.22, 3Bet Preflop: 2.73, hands: 594)
BTN: $38.15 (VPIP: 43.66, PFR: 22.86, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 72)
Hero (SB): $24.44
BB: $27.92 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, Hands: 104)
UTG: $25.00 (VPIP: 21.61, PFR: 11.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.36, Hands: 1,567)
UTG+1: $15.20 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: $73.52 (VPIP: 24.56, PFR: 8.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 57)
MP+1: $25.00 (VPIP: 18.42, PFR: 9.21, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 77)

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 4:spade: 4:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to $0.75, fold, BTN calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, fold

Flop: ($2.50, 3 players) 7:club: 4:club: 7:spade:
Hero checks, MP+1 checks, BTN bets $1.29, Hero calls $1.29, fold

Turn: ($5.08, 2 players) J:spade:
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($5.08, 2 players) J:club:
 
toots babos

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Nasty river, I'd lean towards a check/call on the river unless they go for a massive overbet
 
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masadad

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yeah i was very excited with that flop. everything was looking great. no reason to go aggressive with the bets. was really hoping BTN to have a J or at least a flush draw. but then what a plot twist. these are rare events but when they do happen they can potentially take down entire stack.

like if i had re-raised him on the flop and he had AJ KJ QJ type hands he was definitely going to call and see the turn card anyway. and we would both pretty much be fully committed to pot by river and would have no choice but go all-in?
 
IPlay

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Never donking this turn, if he has a hand strong enough to call then he will bet himself. You want value from his entire range, including his bluffs. I would check raise this turn. As for river, as played is a check/call.

Edit: None of those hands above are floating a check/raise on the flop unless you have a read that villain is spewing a ton, even then it ia unlikely.
 
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So... I can't click the spoiler thing so I don't know what happens. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say "crap, another 7!!!" Yeah?

And then our opponent is going to flip over pocket tens.


There's a couple things I think about this hand.

First, I'm not generally a huge fan of set mining out of position. Because my first thought on that flop is "cool... but how the hell do I get paid off now??" Much easier to get paid off in position. 44 doesn't hold up well against 2 players out of position. SO, I think you can consider a couple options:

a) Folding is actually ok here.
b) Squeezing can also be ok here. Your button is calling very wide based on his VPIP, so this isn't a terrible spot to 3-bet. You may very well fold MP because he's not going to love calling with the button behind. Button is probably too weak to cold call you without the right price.

But calling isn't absolutely terrible... I wouldn't call it a mistake, we just have to have plans for the flop/turn/river.

On the flop the standard play is to check to the PFR. And I don't think that's bad. I think overs with clubs bets. I think over pairs to the board bets. And we might even get bets from c-bet bluff kind of hands (AK/AQ/AJ). But again, there's another consideration here. I think it is worth *considering* donking the flop for around half pot. And the reasoning is because I think there are a lot of cards that hit both MP's range, and Button's range that may call a small bet. MP can have 88+, KJ of clubs +, and I think those hands may call here. And Button can have 56, 67, 87, 55, 66, 88, 99, or a bunch of club combos that may call as well.
And I would base my decision for this action on how often I think the MP is c-betting. I expect the button to come along pretty often.

MP checks, which kind of sucks for us, but fortunately the button bets. Which again gives us another decision. We can either raise, or call. I like a call, I think it means we can have overpairs, club draws, combos of 7s, or 56s. Whereas when we raise we become a bit more polarized. I think MP folds either way. NOW - in most circumstances calling is usually best. BUT, if the button is aggressive we should highly consider a raise because 7 combos are going to jam, and flush draws may very well call.

I like the check on the turn. I think there's a lot of bluffs on the flop in the button's range that fold if we donk. Obviously any 7 will bet here as well. I do think there are a lot of hands that don't bet: club combos, and maybe 55, 66, 88, maybe 99 check back for pot control (because you CAN have a 7 or pocket 4s here). But that's a smaller portion of his range.

I think the check polarizes his range to flop bluffs with equity (club combos, up and down draw) and value hands that are playing timidly (medium pocket pairs).

I don't know what the river is, but if it's a 7 that sucks! We lose a lot of value in the hand. But we still have 7s full. Which puts us in a super awkward spot. I don't think folding is really in the plan. One thing I would definitely consider is check-raise bluffing. I think we can put a lot of pressure on small to medium pocket pairs. So I think it's a good way of getting value from bluffs (by checking) as well as getting value by folding out a good portion of value bets. That said, we have to consider how call-stationy the opponent is before making this move. But I think both check-call, and check-raise are valid lines... unless the guy is really tight on the river... then maybe we can check-fold.
 
Figaroo2

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Sorry Iplay I prefer leading out on the turn here about half to two thirds pot I have a big hand and want to build a big pot and control the hand and bet sizing. I dont want it to check around here. there are two flush draws out there that are going to call. The button looks kind of loose aggressive and might raise if he just thinks you're semi bluffing. All sorts are going to call here most draws and overpairs, all Js are calling. If you don't get called there was never much to win anyway.
As played I'm looking for a cheap showdown.
 
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Figaroo2

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Just to clarify I'm only leading out on the turn because of the wet nature of the board. I don't agree that draws are betting the turn exactly because they don't want to get check raised. If I'm on the button here with a medium flush draw and it checks around I'm taking the free card.
I also don't agree that the button is going to bluff on the end here very often either if we just call twice and might be slowplaying
 
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Beanfacekilla

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I haven't really looked at the other response, nor did I look at spoiler to see what river is.


I like preflop. Great set mining odds.


However, I personally do not try and slow play the small boats, in this case 4's full.


We can't raise too much though, I think I would either check/raise the minimum, or flat and donk the turn for like 1/2 pot or less, to keep his range nice and wide.



Who knows what the river is, but I hope it's not a jack, or a 7...... gross.


If it's a 7, I puke and check fold river, cause we best nothing at that point.


Now, off to check the spoiler!
 
Beanfacekilla

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So... I can't click the spoiler thing so I don't know what happens. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say "crap, another 7!!!" Yeah?

And then our opponent is going to flip over pocket tens.


There's a couple things I think about this hand.

First, I'm not generally a huge fan of set mining out of position. Because my first thought on that flop is "cool... but how the hell do I get paid off now??" Much easier to get paid off in position. 44 doesn't hold up well against 2 players out of position. SO, I think you can consider a couple options:

a) Folding is actually ok here.
b) Squeezing can also be ok here. Your button is calling very wide based on his VPIP, so this isn't a terrible spot to 3-bet. You may very well fold MP because he's not going to love calling with the button behind. Button is probably too weak to cold call you without the right price.

But calling isn't absolutely terrible... I wouldn't call it a mistake, we just have to have plans for the flop/turn/river.

On the flop the standard play is to check to the PFR. And I don't think that's bad. I think overs with clubs bets. I think over pairs to the board bets. And we might even get bets from c-bet bluff kind of hands (AK/AQ/AJ). But again, there's another consideration here. I think it is worth *considering* donking the flop for around half pot. And the reasoning is because I think there are a lot of cards that hit both MP's range, and Button's range that may call a small bet. MP can have 88+, KJ of clubs +, and I think those hands may call here. And Button can have 56, 67, 87, 55, 66, 88, 99, or a bunch of club combos that may call as well.
And I would base my decision for this action on how often I think the MP is c-betting. I expect the button to come along pretty often.

MP checks, which kind of sucks for us, but fortunately the button bets. Which again gives us another decision. We can either raise, or call. I like a call, I think it means we can have overpairs, club draws, combos of 7s, or 56s. Whereas when we raise we become a bit more polarized. I think MP folds either way. NOW - in most circumstances calling is usually best. BUT, if the button is aggressive we should highly consider a raise because 7 combos are going to jam, and flush draws may very well call.

I like the check on the turn. I think there's a lot of bluffs on the flop in the button's range that fold if we donk. Obviously any 7 will bet here as well. I do think there are a lot of hands that don't bet: club combos, and maybe 55, 66, 88, maybe 99 check back for pot control (because you CAN have a 7 or pocket 4s here). But that's a smaller portion of his range.

I think the check polarizes his range to flop bluffs with equity (club combos, up and down draw) and value hands that are playing timidly (medium pocket pairs).

I don't know what the river is, but if it's a 7 that sucks! We lose a lot of value in the hand. But we still have 7s full. Which puts us in a super awkward spot. I don't think folding is really in the plan. One thing I would definitely consider is check-raise bluffing. I think we can put a lot of pressure on small to medium pocket pairs. So I think it's a good way of getting value from bluffs (by checking) as well as getting value by folding out a good portion of value bets. That said, we have to consider how call-stationy the opponent is before making this move. But I think both check-call, and check-raise are valid lines... unless the guy is really tight on the river... then maybe we can check-fold.


I really like this analysis. Great post!
 
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Got the spoiler to work.

So river is the Jack of clubs.


VERY INTERESTING card.

I'm going to be honest, I'm going to assume that I have the best hand on the river. And here's why:

What Jack combos bet the flop? 9J, TJ of clubs, QJ clubs, maybe KJ clubs - any other jack combos that bet the flop are essentially air right?

So when the jack of spades hits on the turn - why wouldn't the button bet all of those air combos?? If he bet with air, and then hit, why not bet again? Now - he may check back for some kind of pot control, so I'm not saying he doesn't have a jack. But it seems fairly unlikely. And that's only IF he has air in his range to begin with. The river eliminates all of his Jc combos.

So I think it's very unlikely that he has a jack here.

That leaves 7x combos right? Again, why check back the turn? There are now two flush draws out on the board, plus the up and down straight draw, and everything else in you range is either another 7x combo or a pocket pair. So again, why not bet with 7x?

What the jack on the river does change is that all those flush draws just got there. I think you HAVE to lead out the river. The board is double paired so a lot of players will check a flush back here but would otherwise call a bet. I'd size it around a half pot.
 
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yeah i was very excited with that flop. everything was looking great. no reason to go aggressive with the bets. was really hoping BTN to have a J or at least a flush draw. but then what a plot twist. these are rare events but when they do happen they can potentially take down entire stack.

like if i had re-raised him on the flop and he had AJ KJ QJ type hands he was definitely going to call and see the turn card anyway. and we would both pretty much be fully committed to pot by river and would have no choice but go all-in?

You think he calls a raise on the flop with QJ??

If you think that you should DEFINITELY raise flop - he's literally almost drawing dead with any QJ combo. He has to go runner runner J J, 7 7, or 7 J. That's like 1% equity.

If that's what you think about that player, raise flop, big bet turn. If the river screws you, so be it.
 
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