re: Poker & $25 NLHE Full Ring: 44 flopped FH. I didn't see that river card coming. Should i always bet turn here?
So... I can't click the spoiler thing so I don't know what happens. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say "crap, another 7!!!" Yeah?
And then our opponent is going to flip over pocket tens.
There's a couple things I think about this hand.
First, I'm not generally a huge fan of set mining out of position. Because my first thought on that flop is "cool... but how the hell do I get paid off now??" Much easier to get paid off in position. 44 doesn't hold up well against 2 players out of position. SO, I think you can consider a couple options:
a) Folding is actually ok here.
b) Squeezing can also be ok here. Your button is calling very wide based on his VPIP, so this isn't a terrible spot to 3-bet. You may very well fold MP because he's not going to love calling with the button behind. Button is probably too weak to cold call you without the right price.
But calling isn't absolutely terrible... I wouldn't call it a mistake, we just have to have plans for the flop/turn/river.
On the flop the standard play is to check to the PFR. And I don't think that's bad. I think overs with clubs bets. I think over pairs to the board bets. And we might even get bets from c-bet bluff kind of hands (AK/AQ/AJ). But again, there's another consideration here. I think it is worth *considering* donking the flop for around half pot. And the reasoning is because I think there are a lot of cards that hit both MP's range, and Button's range that may call a small bet. MP can have 88+, KJ of clubs +, and I think those hands may call here. And Button can have 56, 67, 87, 55, 66, 88, 99, or a bunch of club combos that may call as well.
And I would base my decision for this action on how often I think the MP is c-betting. I expect the button to come along pretty often.
MP checks, which kind of sucks for us, but fortunately the button bets. Which again gives us another decision. We can either raise, or call. I like a call, I think it means we can have overpairs, club draws, combos of 7s, or 56s. Whereas when we raise we become a bit more polarized. I think MP folds either way. NOW - in most circumstances calling is usually best. BUT, if the button is aggressive we should highly consider a raise because 7 combos are going to jam, and flush draws may very well call.
I like the check on the turn. I think there's a lot of bluffs on the flop in the button's range that fold if we donk. Obviously any 7 will bet here as well. I do think there are a lot of hands that don't bet: club combos, and maybe 55, 66, 88, maybe 99 check back for pot control (because you CAN have a 7 or pocket 4s here). But that's a smaller portion of his range.
I think the check polarizes his range to flop bluffs with equity (club combos, up and down draw) and value hands that are playing timidly (medium pocket pairs).
I don't know what the river is, but if it's a 7 that sucks! We lose a lot of value in the hand. But we still have 7s full. Which puts us in a super awkward spot. I don't think folding is really in the plan. One thing I would definitely consider is check-raise bluffing
. I think we can put a lot of pressure on small to medium pocket pairs. So I think it's a good way of getting value from bluffs (by checking) as well as getting value by folding out a good portion of value bets. That said, we have to consider how call-stationy the opponent is before making this move. But I think both check-call, and check-raise are valid lines... unless the guy is really tight on the river... then maybe we can check-fold.