$25 NLHE Full Ring: Get 3bet pre ???

ALL IN CLUBS

ALL IN CLUBS

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$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem (9 players)
SB: $17.39
BB: $28.90
UTG: $38.12
UTG+1: $46.48
MP: $52.50
MP+1: $8.71
MP+2 Hero: $25
CO: $25 See His Stats below 4,200 hands on him
BTN: $16.79

Pre-flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP+2 and dealt :kh4: :ac4:
3 folds, MP+1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, CO raises to $3.31 MP#1 folds , Hero ????

Here is C.O. Stats Below
Hh 1
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Fold. You don't have great equity against his overall range. Your equity REALLY sucks vs the range he's willing to stack with preflop. And calling OOP is never a good thing.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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His 3-bet is 5%, which is exactly the break even point for 4-betting AKo. So stacking off here is EV neutral. I probably just fold.
 
hackmeplz

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He 3-bets 5% from CO and it will likely be more given that we raised from hijack and are isolating. AK is way too strong to fold I probably just call. We lose to exactly 2 hands which makes up 1% of all hands. You're going to assume has has one of those hands now? You guys are nits!
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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He 3-bets 5% from CO and it will likely be more given that we raised from hijack and are isolating. AK is way too strong to fold I probably just call. We lose to exactly 2 hands which makes up 1% of all hands. You're going to assume has has one of those hands now? You guys are nits!
You can't really call because the only time you're going to play a big pot postflop is when you're crushed. 4bet or fold.
 
hackmeplz

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Do you realize we are crushed a minimum of 20% here? Even if he only 3b 5% in this spot we are only crushed 20%. We have a hand we are not going to lose a ton if we don't flop a pair, and we likely dominate some of his 3b range if he 3b hands like AQ/AJ/KQ. We have a very strong hand that plays really well despite the fact that it sucks to be oop. If his 3b range looked like QQ+/AK I'd agree we can probably fold but that's not the case. I'm guessing he has a range of ~7-8% in this particular situation and I think folding a hand as strong as AK is just going to be a very big mistake. Also we can make money against hands like JJ/QQ when we flop TP even though we're not going to win a big pot as well as letting him bluff us when he has random air/flops a draw and we flop TP.

edit actually it's even less than 20% because we have blockers to the hands that crush us.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Calling is the absolute worst choice you can make facing a 3bet from this player in this situation.
 
acky100

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Is the guy likely to re isolate fish light? a lot of regulars that are bad at these stakes seem to 3bet less when someone isolates a fish which is bad logic but happens.

I can kind of go both ways, and lets face 4bet or fold isn't gonna be bad but i lean towards folding myself just because i know i'll play better the rest of my session than i would if i lost a stack over a really close decision. Not that i tilt instantly or anything but folding when its close sometimes helps my mindset and prevents the start of any tilt etc.
 
T

TheBowlBoy

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4bet to like $7 and call a shove imo.

Villain should be 3betting wider for value here to re-isolate the short stacked limper ( some info on him is relevant to the discussion and should be included btw. We have fold equity when we 4bet this and even if he shoves QQ+/AK then we have the equity to call it off. His 3bet range is most likely wider than that anyway.

4betting here is definitely going to be better than folding which simply surrenders 5bb.

So as long as we can make a play that in the long run does better than -5bb/hand then we should definitely not fold.
 
T

TheBowlBoy

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Is the guy likely to re isolate fish light? a lot of regulars that are bad at these stakes seem to 3bet less when someone isolates a fish which is bad logic but happens.

I can kind of go both ways, and lets face 4bet or fold isn't gonna be bad but i lean towards folding myself just because i know i'll play better the rest of my session than i would if i lost a stack over a really close decision. Not that i tilt instantly or anything but folding when its close sometimes helps my mindset and prevents the start of any tilt etc.

This is a reasonable argument for folding, though in theory I believe 4betting in this spot is going to be best. Villain's stats have already shown that he demonstrates the ability to fold to a 4bet and this is most likely a spot where his 3bet range is going to be on the wider end.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Do you realize we are crushed a minimum of 20% here?.
Funny, there's $4 in and we have $21 behind. So sure, we're rarely crushed, but we're also winning very little when they fold.

This is a solved spot. There's really only one argument you can make and that's that villain 3-bets more than 5%. And since villain 3-bets less on the button, I don't see your arguments about you isolating holding much water. This guy isnt that advanced.
 
Nathan Williams

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Pretty close spot. I think 4bet/call or fold are the best choices also with 4bet/call being a bit better.
 
H

HoldOnTheRail

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His 3bet is 5%. But you 5x one caller. He should be afraid to rereise 5x if your standart raise is 3x. He reduces his 3bet hand raise to qq kk aa ak. You fold against his cbet if you dont hit. If you hit ace you wont pay off against kk qq and ak is split+ rake. If your opp has aces then you are dead in this spot. And every flop you hit, you got no value, but you pay off way more. Ak is overrated from some peeps perspective. Ak is just good for short stack all ins. You are on coinflip usually. Favorite just against Ax and any not paired hand. Of course ak is super playable hand, but not all ins, and ak is fine in good position. But this hand should be fold that opp. But thats my philosophy.
 
brank

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This guy is not that agro. Like C9 said, his 3 bet is less OTB so I'd assume they're not 3 betting light until I see otherwise.
 
acky100

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hes probably a bad reg so he probably calls with AJ and AQ most of the time especially considering his 3bet is probably lower than 5 on the button (he's probably just one of these poor regs who 3bet a bit more in the blinds because they read it was cool on 2+2 ) This makes me lean to folding even more.
 
T

TheBowlBoy

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I thought more about this hand last night after posting my first response but unfortunately I wasn't allowed to post again because new peeps can't post more than 7x in a 24 hour period ( hey mods, I am genuinely interested in getting involved in this forum more so if you can look at my posting history thus far and make an exception that would be cool since it'll take me like another week to reach 65 posts - if not, understandaments :( ).

At first glance I new this spot was super thin but figured 4bet/call was slightly better than folding. But I opened up all-in expert and started plugging some ranges and realized that continuing here is probably slightly -EV due to this being so thin and the effect that the rake is going to have.

If villain's 3bet range is JJ+/AQ but our 4bet folds out JJ and AQ then shoving AKo here is likely break even at best after rake.

After more consideration, I don't even believe that we be confident he would even 3bet JJ and AQ in this spot. He should want to keep the fish in and definitely not risk getting blown off a great chance to flop a set with JJ or QQ for that matter.

OP has a pretty good sample on villain and nothing there suggests he is getting out of line with 3bets except for blind vs button spots where there are no limpers involved. So I retract my previous opinion and am now in the fold camp.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Yeah, shoving here isnt that bad, I just dont think it's good.
 
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