$25 NLHE Full Ring: 3B pot, made nut Flush on paired board, facing OoP bet on river.

J

JohnnyCardPlayer

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$25 NLHE Full Ring: 3B pot, made nut Flush on paired board, facing OoP bet on river.

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/14/2

So, this is my first post on Cardschat.

I've played 83 hands against the villain. I've never seen him fold to a 3B (happened three times already), he likes to donk on the flop (29%), and he's folded 3 out of 4 times to a cBet, twice while IP and once OoP.

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $27.23
BB: $25.00
UTG: $27.88
UTG+1: $25.00
UTG+2: $23.88
MP1: $25.00
Hero (MP2): $37.28
CO: $32.70
BTN: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with K A
UTG raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2, 4 folds, UTG calls $1.25

Flop: ($4.35) 9 9 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2

Turn: ($8.35) 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.75, UTG calls $5.75

River: ($19.85) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $13.27, Hero is in a tilted state and doesn't really want to look for the fold button... but finds it.

This was the right thing to do here, right?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I shove the river and feel good about it. His range has few 9's or 7's
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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I shove the river and feel good about it. His range has few 9's or 7's
Agreed. A 14 pfr range is likely to include 77 and 99, but no combos with one of either. And if we assume he's tighter from UTG than his overall pfr, he might not open 77.
 
H

hffjd2000

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I will fold here.

Have to save some chips.

Many hands Ill lose and few hands Ill win.

I believe you are lost on the river.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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I will fold here.

Have to save some chips.

Many hands Ill lose and few hands Ill win.

I believe you are lost on the river.
And what is your basis for believing you don't even have sufficient pot odds to call?
 
E

erlanditas

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I would call here, I only see here an opponent Ax in the hand or just bluffing with Ax, or nothing(and he imagine that you have AK KK AA QQ) And you can fold from this pot, so It's good to bluff.
 
F

Falcon1803

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Agreed. A 14 pfr range is likely to include 77 and 99, but no combos with one of either. And if we assume he's tighter from UTG than his overall pfr, he might not open 77.
I think you kind of contradict yourself... If he never raises pre with SC from UTG then with what can he call 2 streets on FD board (except quads)? Only overpairs. If so, would the villain shove with overpair on the river? I believe not. I think it is a boat or a smaller flush. Given his stats and info (never folds to 3-bet) and small sample his range can easily include some draws with KQ, KJ, J10, QJ of clubs, and boats with suited 87(hearts, diamonds), 89 (diamonds, spades) and 910 (diamonds, spades) . That gives us 4 combos we beat and 6 combos that beat us. Given that he might not shove with a weak flush - I'm even more inclined to fold
 
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Arjonius

Arjonius

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I think you kind of contradict yourself... If he never raises pre with SC from UTG then with what can he call 2 streets on FD board (except quads)? Only overpairs. If so, would the villain shove with overpair on the river? I believe not. I think it is a boat or a smaller flush. Given his stats and info (never folds to 3-bet) and small sample his range can easily include some draws with KQ, KJ, J10, QJ of clubs, and boats with suited 87(hearts, diamonds), 89 (diamonds, spades) and 910 (diamonds, spades) . That gives us 4 combos we beat and 6 combos that beat us. Given that he might not shove with a weak flush - I'm even more inclined to fold
What SCs including a 7 or 9 are **likely** to be in his range when his pfr is 14? Add in that his vpip is 27, and he looks like a person who limps SCs, not one who open raises them.

Sure, this might be the occasional time he open raised one. So let's say that some % of the time, his range includes an SC with a 7 or 9. After factoring in the pot odds, how high does that % have to be to for folding to be mathematically correct?
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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I would expect the vil to have QQ JJ TT here a good amount of the time as well. Is there ever a good time to face a shove when you have a flush on a paired board. Looking from his vill point of view its a big pot with a scary board many would fold to a shove as several respondants have indicated. It is a good bluffing spot.
I also would call this off expecting to see an overpair more often than not.
 
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