$25 NLHE Full Ring: $25NL: TPTK facing open shove on the flop

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Connon

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: $25NL: TPTK facing open shove on the flop

So I'm knew to the table - to be honest I wasn't really paying much attention so didn't have a clue about the guy (oh and I don't have a HUD at the moment), I've pretty much decided I suck at poker lately and AK is one hand that has lead me to that conclusion why, having huge problems playing it, so yeah:

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
SB: $17.30 (69.2 bb)
BB: $41.03 (164.1 bb)
MP1: $37.65 (150.6 bb)
MP2: $50 (200 bb)
MP3: $29.37 (117.5 bb)
CO: $58.32 (233.3 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K A
MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $1.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.10, 2 folds, MP2 calls $2.85
Flop: ($8.55) A Q J (2 players)
MP2 bets $45.90 and is all-in, Hero ???

Soooo, what do you think?

As an aside I think my 3bet sizing is fine, right?
 
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Connon

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haha, failed on the old topic title didn't I, oh well, and wrote knew, braindead.

is it just me that has insane problems with cardschat? I probably like triple posted this thread; would check but it will take me half an hour.
 
cjatud2012

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haha, failed on the old topic title didn't I, oh well, and wrote knew, braindead.

is it just me that has insane problems with cardschat? I probably like triple posted this thread; would check but it will take me half an hour.

3-bet sizing is fine imo. I'm mostly a SNG player, but I would fold this, as I expect two pair a lot here, as well as JJ, and sometimes QQ or AA. He would overbet with these hands to make it look as if he were bluffing/ semi-bluffing. Even if he is semi-bluffing, our equity against a flush draw is probably only 2:1. Add a straight draw to that, or a pair to go with the flush draw, and our equity becomes even less.

So, without a special read, we can't really play this. Just curse under your breath, muck your cards, and look for a better spot.
 
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sta123

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I would fold and wait for a better spot here, he could of easily called with QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ, AK, all of which crush you.
 
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Yeah I folded pretty fast, only hand I would think I was ahead of would be KhQh, but even then hes got 14 outs (well 3 to tie). He might have AK as well, but ye, JJ/QQ/AJ/AQ would be the most probable if he's actually thinking.

Think I only posted it last night 'coz I feel like I'm having to fold good hands too often lately and wondering if I'm just being way too cautious at NL25 for some reason.
 
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sactokid544

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3-bet sizing is fine imo. I'm mostly a SNG player, but I would fold this, as I expect two pair a lot here, as well as JJ, and sometimes QQ or AA. He would overbet with these hands to make it look as if he were bluffing/ semi-bluffing. Even if he is semi-bluffing, our equity against a flush draw is probably only 2:1. Add a straight draw to that, or a pair to go with the flush draw, and our equity becomes even less.

So, without a special read, we can't really play this. Just curse under your breath, muck your cards, and look for a better spot.


I agree with this IF we were at a higher level (although AI with almost 200 BBs on the flop is less frequent).

However, I totally agree with your logic that this play is made often but I think it happens at more complex levels of play.

But if Hero just sat down, villian also has no reads.. According to your logic, villian is pushing with a really good hand, in the hopes of hero interpreting it as a bluff/semi-bluff and therefore calling. If villian doesn't know anything about hero, how can he assume that any Joe Schmoe player is capable of viewing his bet this way?

I think at this level, bets generally mean what they are supposed to mean. And I think it means, "I have a pair and a draw or a vulnerable hand and if you think you can beat me, you need to grow a pair and play for stacks. Plus, this flop is scary and you can't call." Therefore...it's probably more of a semi-bluff/bluff..

However, with that said, you are risking your stack to find out and this flop doesn't give you much equity IF you are a favorite because of all the draws. I would err on the side of folding and looking for a better spot with no read..

However, with a good-read.. Well, this could be a call...
 
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IveGot0uts

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The best you can hope for here is TT going batshit crazy, and there's just no reason to think someone would ever do that here. The best case realistic scenario is chopping with ak, or maybe something like KQh which has you in a pickle a fair bit of the time too.

I would say almost for certain this is aq, aj, or a set that is just sick of being sucked out on, sees the draw heavy board and says, "I sure hope I get called by some idiot on a draw or weaker monster."
 
Double-A

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We should call.

We've got some equity against a range as tight as QQ-TT, AQ-AJ. The $8 in the pot will help cover that. Plus, I don't think his range is that tight. We might even be ahead.

I'm not liking laying this down to an unknown. His shove is weak, we should call.
 
slycbnew

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We should call.

We've got some equity against a range as tight as QQ-TT, AQ-AJ. The $8 in the pot will help cover that. Plus, I don't think his range is that tight. We might even be ahead.

I'm not liking laying this down to an unknown. His shove is weak, we should call.

We're 40% against that range (41% if you add a couple of fd's), risking ~$21 to win ~$30.
 
KardKlub

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looks to me like a set playing scared on such a wet board. Good fold
 
BLieve

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We're 40% against that range (41% if you add a couple of fd's), risking ~$21 to win ~$30.

Sorry for reviving this old thread but I need clarification here. Aren't we risking ~$20 to win ~$50? And with ~40% equity isnt that exactly EV?
 
slycbnew

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Sorry for reviving this old thread but I need clarification here. Aren't we risking ~$20 to win ~$50? And with ~40% equity isnt that exactly EV?

No, the $50 includes the $20 we have to put in - effective stack is $25 pf - we're risking $20 to win the $30 that's already there.

Yes, I was agreeing w Double-A, I think this is +Ev, the odds are good enough.
 
F Paulsson

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I think you're ahead a lot more often than you think you are. I can't remember the last time I had someone shove into me on a board like this (well, admittedly it doesn't happen often) and have a hand that beat TPTK.

People slowplay. It's what they do. They love it. They can't help themselves. For that reason, besides the pure combinatorics of it, I think you can discount sets a bit here, never mind the fact that he didn't 4-bet preflop.

I got shoved on an almost identical board to this one once when I had 3-bet AK on the button. I tanked but ultimately called. Guy turned over 88. That's the kinda hand I expect him to show up with here - don't ask me how they arrive at the conclusion that they should shove, but that's what they do.

It's a definite call. I expect our equity to be over 50% on average.
 
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you'll see KK here occasionally.

You could say we'll see 27 here occasionally too, but I don't see how that helps. I think its more important to consider a number of possibilities rather than 1 hand that may show up. I actually think KK is pretty uncommon here since there was no 4bet or shove preflop. But most of the hands that are doing this I think AK is ahead of. Slowplaying the big hands is much more likely or at least a small silly bet since people are trying to squeeze money out of other players not scare everyone away.
 
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