$25 NLHE Full Ring: $25 NLHE : fold, call or shove this river?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/5/2

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/5/2

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

MP: $47.25 (189 bb)
Hero (CO): $24.50 (98 bb)
BTN: $25.15 (100.6 bb)
SB: $25.61 (102.4 bb)
BB: $43.09 (172.4 bb)
UTG: $10.70 (42.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with As 4s
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN folds, SB calls $0.65, BB folds

Flop: ($1.75) 3s 8s Js (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, SB calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.25) Jh (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $3 (obviously not happy the board paired)

River: ($12.25) Ah (2 players)
SB bets $9.50, Hero?
I'm really struggling to range this one, he is representing a boat but what do we do. Fold or shove doesn't feel right so we just call right?

Final Board: 3s 8s Js Jh Ah

I can easily see him having AJ here, for sure just a call or fold. Judging by his VPIP I would almost prefer a fold.... But folding the nut flush is never good, he could just have trips hoping that you had a big A.

I personally would call, but a fold would not be horrible. You are getting 2 to 1 on your money, so I think its a fairly easy call.

It's not full ring; I think there's a 6 max option for threads. 15/5 is awfully tight for 6 max; how reliable are the stats, ie. how many hands?

Boat is possible, esp with 15/5 in the SB; I don't see a lot of Kx/Qx spades in his range preflop.

The other missing factor is how he sees you; are you really aggro post-flop, or the opposite, folding a lot to aggression post-flop, or opening a lot preflop? Any of those could widen his range here.

The fewer the hands you have on him, the more likely I am to call

Call. I think he has a smaller flush some of the time. I also think he is raising flop with a set or 2 pair. Therefore I would say the only hand he could have to beat you would be AJ. He has way more stuff that you beat in his range than stuff that beats you and youre getting 2:1 so calling is the only play. If you shove you're not going to get value from anything you have beat except maybe a lower flush sometimes but you will get called by better far more often.

Hi. I want to give my opinion about this hand. So basicly, i think there are 2 choices - Call or Fold. In this spot i think you have to call, because:
1) He can have any set ( KJ, KQ ,K10, K9, with what he could defend preflop)
2) You have involved too much money.
3) He puts you on QQ with heart, or something like that.

So it is just my opinion, he could easly have 33 or 88, that he can defend preflop, but i think it is a call.

Nit came alive when the board paired on the turn after a mono flop and didn't slow down on the river, after looking at the hand I think it's a fold. Although in game I probably would have called.

Edit: guess we can't really call him a nit unless we know the number of hands that he has been playing. But I still think it is a fold. Would be interested in the results after some more comments.

You can probabely fold on the turn and be happy about it.

You can probabely fold on the turn and be happy about it. A KsQs, KsTs could be in his range but most likely pocket pairs. Even AJ or KJ.But i do not think he would reraise with those He is quite passive. An agression factor of 2 on a 15 VPIP is small. Not too many flushes in his range. And when such a passive nit is giving you action on paired turn you can be sure he is not bluffing.
Calling is a verry bad option . You know you cannot be good in this spot. I would not be surprized if he has quads.

I had only just sat down at this table, had 25 hands on the villian which equates to not a lot of help really.
Looking back at it again, if I had anything but the ace flush I would have folded the turn but there is still a lot I can beat and i'm not laying down at that point. I read it at the time that he most likely had a J possibly 3s or 8s, there are a lot of hands that can justify a raise and still be losing to the flush like a J with 10s, Qs or Ks
Like I said a fold felt wrong, I went with my gut on this one and he had 66 (no spade)
It was a pretty good bluff attempt by the villian which would normally have worked. I accept I'm going to lose a boat here some of the time. Sometimes they bluff so sometimes you have to call....

He played 4 hands. I would never think that he could bluff here . I am waiting for other legit opinions like baudib or JhonA. I think I remember watching a training video where the coach said about a tight guy like this "It is his right to bluff us in this spot because he is playing so tight". I think it was WiltonTilt.

After 25 hands you cant class anybody as anything except in ridiculous circumstances such as 100/100 or something like that. In which case this is pretty much a vacuum situation. Therefor I think my previous summary is just about on the money.

He probably wouldn't just be chk/calling the flop with a flopped set. He probably would be defending. The other boat that makes sense is AJ like others have said.

I would call and be ok with it if he does have a boat.

If you had some history, or your opponent wasn't such a nit, then shove would be appropriate if we named out all the combos that would call vs better hands. All lower flushes and Jx a large % of the time.

Since we don't have a ton of info though, a call is standard. You're going to look at lower flushes and some KJ type hands PLENTY for this to be at least a call.

EDIT: In fact I just looked at your post on what he had. I think it's a good example of understanding that your opponent is sometimes going to have a pretty strange hand (poorly played hand). You have to account for that in your dissecting of hand ranges. I can't tell you how many times a session I get it in and I'm surprised by what my opponent turns over.