$25 NLHE 6-max: Value bet river or no?

$25 NL HE 6-max: Value bet river or no?

BTN: $28.45
SB: $34.52
Hero (BB): $62.61
UTG: $25.00
MP: $51.79
CO: $27.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with
2 folds, CO raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.80) (2 players)
Hero bets $5.64, CO calls $5.64

River: ($21.08) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 820718
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Villain is a winning player and has been playing pretty solid so far.
VPIP 19, PFR 13,5 after 104 hands

Pre flop: I don't think it makes a lot of sense to 3bet with AJ because he only plays solid starting hands and I'm gonna be out of position later.

Flop: Bingo.. So far he has lead out on every flop as the pre flop raiser.
Easy value check raise for me. I've been check raising a few times with air before and showed it once to create a loose image. I expect him to pay me off with Ax and flush draws, he might call once with medium pairs and fold to turn bets with those
Usually my check raise size is 3x the original bet but I made it slightly less to make it look weak

Turn: is pretty much a blank and doesn't hit any of his range. I think 60% pot is a good bet size. Now he calls I'm pretty sure he either has a big ace or a flush draw. Worse aces up are unlikely (he doesn't open raise aces with kickers under T) and sets are out of the equation because he raises those for value on the flop/turn.

River: I was planning to fire another 60% pot barrel but not on a card that completes a flush and a straight. I don't think he'll call a 3rd barrel with a naked ace unless it's AK or AQ so he either folds most Ax or shoves in case he hits his draw.

I checked river and it turns out he had AK which might have called $9ish but I'm not sure.
Is this usually a bad river check?

Firstly, I don't like the call with AJo against CO. 3bet or fold - he may well be stealing, and even if he isn't AJo is a horrible hand to play against his range of 19/13

Stack sizes are horrible, mainly due to your bet sizing on the turn. You can't really B/F for ~$10 which would be my ideal play as you'll be getting better than 4/1 on a call and I'm sure you've got that equity against his range...

I'd bet bigger on the turn, but that's not a great river card. I'd probably check and call a bet of up to $10, but I'm shipping any non-club river. Then again, if it's an ingame decision I'd probably end up calling...

Kidsoldja said:

Turn:

is pretty much a blank and doesn't hit any of his range. I think 60% pot is a good bet size. Now he calls I'm pretty sure he either has a big ace or a flush draw. Worse aces up are unlikely (he doesn't open raise aces with kickers under T)

Click to expand...

I think the preflop call is standard against most players. I don't like 3-betting because it makes him fold everything we dominate and people don't really like folding anything that dominates us, so we're in trouble when we play a 3bet pot. That said, if you really think there's no A9/A8 in his range, he's playing much tigher than even 19/13 would seem to indicate. Sure, A9o isn't in the top 13%, but he's in the cut-off. His range should be way up in the cut-off and on the button. And if he's that tight, then the value of playing AJ might be debatable; you won't get much action when you flop top pair unless you're up against something bigger and you'll often end up paying when you are.

Now, that said, what I want to see is a breakdown of what you think his range is once he calls the turn, e.g. "AK, AQ, AJ, QT" etc. All of 'em. I think you'll find that your decision is pretty easily solved once you guesstimate his range.

Reading your hand I put your opponent on AK, which he ended up having. It seemed to me he was check calling you the whole way with it, I would've bet the river for value.

F Paulsson said:

Now, that said, what I want to see is a breakdown of what you think his range is once he calls the turn, e.g. "AK, AQ, AJ, QT" etc. All of 'em. I think you'll find that your decision is pretty easily solved once you guesstimate his range.

Click to expand...

AK/Q/J/8, Q10, clubs that make sense...

Stove says:

Board: Ad Jc 5c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.818% 78.48% 03.33% 2072 88.00 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 18.182% 14.85% 03.33% 392 88.00 { 88, ATs+, A8s, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, QcJc, QTs, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, ATo+, A8o, QTo }


Value bet imo.

Does anyone know how to quickly add things like *c*c to pokerstove? Pain in the arse adding everyone when sometimes it's necessary.

Yes value bet, and I don't like the turn size either, also I really don't like your call preflop.

FP says it is standard, I'd hate to argue with him, but there's not much you can do with AJ there unless you think you can easily get him off hands. But you tried not to do that by showing bluffs, so stick with it.

If an A comes you're in real trouble, you'll get outkicked alot if you get action, if an A doesn't come you can't really bluff him for reasons stated above so you don't know where you stand.

As played it's a dream board of course, stick with it and be ready to get stacks in.

I should probably have said that it's a standard call for me, against most players. If you're not sure how to play it, a fold is much better. You have to have some idea of when to float, when to donk, a plan for when you flop an ace, a plan for when you flop a jack, etc. Against a wide range (and most players have a decently wide range in the cutoff), it works just fine. It's only if you're up against hands that mostly dominate you and a player that plays well that you're in trouble.

What it comes down to is that you need to have either enough of a postflop skill edge or a postflop hand edge (or some combination of the two) to offset your positional disadvantage enough not to lose more than .5bb if you play it.