re: Poker & $25 NLHE 6-max: Unconventional AA Play Runs into River Trouble
Originally Posted by Scourrge
25nl Zone on Bovada, so no reads.
MP opens 75c, I 3b to $2 with AA in CO, he flats. we were about 200bb deep to start the hand.
(Pot = ~ $4.20)
Flop J J 8 r
He checks, I cbet $2.25 and he calls.
(Pot = ~$8.50)
Turn 4 (puts a FD on board)
He checks, I check behind planning to call most rivs or bet when he checks.
(Pot = ~$8.50)
River is a J, putting a flush on the board. he leads for $5.50, and I raise to $12. He jams all in. I fold.
I almost flatted the river, but I figured he has a lot of 99, TT, and QQ here, which he plays exactly this way, and will likely make a crying call with (cause Blow-vada). Plus I block AJ, and it's tough for him to have Jx in general with three J's on the board. But I also don't think he's going to 3b the river with TT or QQ here, so it seems a clear fold once he jams, right?
I'm not that great of a cash game player and I'm sure you are better than me, however I can beat $25NL zone. So fwiw here is my opinion on the hand.
I 3-bet to $2.5 pre. imo 3-betting to $2 vs $2.5 doesn't change what they fold that much and the extra $.5 is magnified a lot if you are getting 3 streets of value and your bet sizing is dependent on the pot size.
Flop and Turn.
On the flop and the turn I probably play it the same way. Betting the turn is probably the more profitable line to take, but I really don't like playing large pots with an over pair on a board like that.
On the river I call 100% The fact that he is 200BB deep makes it more likely he is a decent player, but tbh I would hardly be surprised to see the villain show up with something as bad as an 8 here. Just about everyone in 25NL zone will call the flop with an 8 and being the turn checked through on the river I can see some people putting you on AK or something like that. Obviously some people are going to be folding all the 8's in their range preflop, but some won't.
I really think you might give people in zone a little to much credit for knowing what they are doing because a lot of them are just gamblers.
If this was played during the week (M/T/W/T) a fold might be ok, but if it was during the weekend I would definitely call.
As always that is just what I would have done given the little bit I know about poker, if you or someone else has a different opinion or sees a flaw in my thought process I would really appreciate it if you would point it out.
Best of luck
EDIT: when I said some people would put you on AK I was meaning up until the 3-bet on the river your hand would look to a lot of people as AK