$25 NLHE 6-max: two awkward non monotone flop spots w/ bottom set

Seat 1: zbrojownia ($25 in chips)
Seat 2: Iskarka ($26.35 in chips)
Seat 3: zamotaem ($26.15 in chips)
Seat 4: Dredjka ($10.35 in chips)
Seat 5: iPwnNoobz69 ($42.43 in chips)
Seat 6: phil_guindon ($23.11 in chips)
zamotaem: posts small blind $0.10
Dredjka: posts big blind $0.25

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jchoop[5h 5s]
jchoop: raises $0.37 to $0.62
phil_guindon: folds
zbrojownia: calls $0.62
Iskarka: folds
zamotaem: folds
Dredjka: calls $0.37

*** FLOP *** [Jc 9c 5d]
Dredjka: bets $1.75
jchoop: calls $1.75
zbrojownia: raises $5.25 to $7
Dredjka: raises $2.73 to $9.73 and is all-in
jchoop: ?

dredkja- 28/25/26.4 aggF 4.5 (117 hands)
zbro- 16/11/4.2 aggF 1.0 (149 hands)

So logic at the time
shortie flats in the BB and leads out for ~pot. im not worried about him at all, im flatting here wanting to look semi weak (by not raising seeing as i opened pre) and maybe get zbro the nit in (which i guess is kinda retarded cos hes a nit, but whatever)

pot OTF was $1.96 + $1.75 bet + my $1.75 call = $5.46.

zbro goes ahead and makes it 7 and shortie instajams. im 99% sure i have the shortie crushed but what about zbro?
i go ahead and assume he 3bs QQ-AA pre, JJ maybe but maybe not vs UTG raise. he also has a small gap in his vpip/pfr ratio which makes me inclined to believe hes calling mid pairs to set mine. apart from a set, the only other thing i can see him playing this massive is QcTc.

is this a spot i can fold a set? and if not there, how about here?


Seat 1: jchoop ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 2: parom901 ($56.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Rutball ($42.92 in chips)
Seat 4: sepremento ($25.70 in chips)
Seat 5: Life4Aiur ($32.24 in chips)
Seat 6: pokerpimp713 ($25 in chips)
jchoop: posts small blind $0.10
parom901: posts big blind $0.25

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jchoop [3h 3c]
Rutball: raises $0.75 to $1
sepremento: folds
Life4Aiur: folds
pokerpimp713: folds
jchoop: calls $0.90
parom901: folds

*** FLOP *** [3d 8d Ts]
jchoop: checks
Rutball: bets $1.50
jchoop: raises $2.50 to $4
Rutball: raises $5 to $9
jchoop: ?

I have 300 hands on this guy. hes 24/19 w/ an AggF of 2.5 and a Cbet of 53%. i dont have enough samples for his fold Cbet to raise.

The problem i have in this case, is that the guy im playing ive noted as a capable if not good, profitable player.
Im pretty tight pre so when he Cbets the flop and i pot him, i feel like he has to put me on something really solid- Jd9d/AdTd combo draw type hand if not a set myself. his raise from $4 to $9 i feel is a total sucker bet- if he just 3b jammed the flop i snap, and if he rolls a set im just like 'eh, cooler', but his practically 3b minraised me- and when is that ever not nuts?

FYI i fold 33 to opens pre now so no need to flame me for that lol


thanks guys

Hand 1 whats up with the small weird raise size pre?I raise on the flop~5.50-6 because it's such a wet board.As played never fold floped sets with 100bb's.Especially on such a wet board when there are so many draws on the flop.
Hand 2 I don't fold floped setsDon't start folding small pairs to 1 open raise.Set mining makes money.Just try to do it IP vs a nits tight range,with correct odds of course

1st hand raise normally. Both hands gii.

All in, all in. Neither spot is remotely close. Hand 2 is arguably a fold pre.

Both are all-ins, Raise flop on hand 1 and yeah argument for a fold pre in hand 2

What's the equity maths to do with getting it in otf? Cos I've never folded a flopped set in my life lol because I just know that you shouldn't. But. These two times I just felt I was beat. So if we're saying never food here I'd like to give him a range based on the action, which I have tried to do. I think their actions along with stats narrow their ranges to such a Point that these could be folds. So what do we have them on that they could be playing this strong OTF in both hands ?

Awks raise size in hand 1 is 2.5BB as BB or SB was 3bing wide I wanted to be able to setmine the flop for cheap when he did.

Also, with the first hand I guess I should've raised the flop, but seeing as i didnt and villain goes ahead and raises to $7 what are we putting him on here?

jchoop said:

What's the equity maths to do with getting it in otf? whatCos I've never folded a flopped set in my life lol because I just know that you shouldn't.good But. These two times I just felt I was beat. So if we're saying never food here I'd like to give him a range based on the action, which I have tried to do. I think their actions along with stats narrow their ranges to such a Point that these could be folds.No So what do we have them on that they could be playing this strong OTF in both hands ?

Awks raise size in hand 1 is 2.5BB as BB or SB was 3bing wide I wanted to be able to setmine the flop for cheap when he did.Don't start calling 3bets in order to set mine

Also, with the first hand I guess I should've raised the flop, but seeing as i didnt and villain goes ahead and raises to $7 what are we putting him on here?

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Tons of draws,Jx,sets

don't set mine oop.
don't set mine if you plan on folding flopped sets

jchoop said:

What's the equity maths to do with getting it in otf? Cos I've never folded a flopped set in my life lol because I just know that you shouldn't. But. These two times I just felt I was beat. So if we're saying never food here I'd like to give him a range based on the action, which I have tried to do. I think their actions along with stats narrow their ranges to such a Point that these could be folds. So what do we have them on that they could be playing this strong OTF in both hands ?

Awks raise size in hand 1 is 2.5BB as BB or SB was 3bing wide I wanted to be able to setmine the flop for cheap when he did.

Also, with the first hand I guess I should've raised the flop, but seeing as i didnt and villain goes ahead and raises to $7 what are we putting him on here?

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Have you ever thought you were beat, but been wrong? I know I have plenty. And that's why we use hand ranges and math. I tend to always remember the times when I thought I was beat and was correct though for some odd reason. I have selective remembrance of my psychic abilities. Live game, a slightly different story since you have more information to base your decision off of.

Part of putting together a hand range is including hands that beat you. So if you do that, do you think you're still ahead in both hands? I know you don't want others to do the work for you so that you can think it through and learn... I assume this since you posted.

JOEBOB69 said:

Tons of draws,Jx,sets

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Draws generally dont play this strongly at micros. Only draw that will be playing this strongly is OESFD imo.

im 99% sure villain doesnt have an overpair in hand 1, and 99% sure villain doesnt stack with an overpair in hand 2. based on their ranges, neither can have 2p either, so they can only have bigger sets or draws. and if either of these guys played draws this strongly, id have known about it by now. maybe not in hand 1, but hand 2 certainly not a draw.

If that's your read then go with it. I think assuming that opponents won't stack with an over pair on this kind of board 99% of the time is a mistake though.

John A said:

If that's your read then go with it. I think assuming that opponents won't stack with an over pair on this kind of board 99% of the time is a mistake though.

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really? player is decent and its MP vs BB so our ranges are both pretty tight here imo. AA/KK by this guy im pretty sure is calling down to keep bluffs in my range

EDIT: also say it was an overpair like AA, dont you find it super unstandard for it to be 3bet minraised on the flop as opposed to being 3bet shoved?

jchoop said:

really? player is decent and its MP vs BB so our ranges are both pretty tight here imo. AA/KK by this guy im pretty sure is calling down to keep bluffs in my range

EDIT: also say it was an overpair like AA, dont you find it super unstandard for it to be 3bet minraised on the flop as opposed to being 3bet shoved?

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A couple of the biggest mistakes players make is:
1) Assigning too tight of a range, saying players will never do X. That's always a sign of flawed reasoning. I've played poker at high levels for over 7 years, and I can't even tell you how many times as I was moving up the stake ladder that a player flipped over a hand I thought there was no way he could have. It's a mistake to not say at least x% of the time, they have have Y hand.
2) Assuming other think like you do.

Just because you wouldn't stack off with an overpair, doesn't mean your opponents won't here. The min raise doesn't change his range to include only monster.

Let's include only sets, two major draws AdQds+ only, and say they will stack off with QQ+ only 40% of the time. You're still a favorite in hand 2.

John A said:

A couple of the biggest mistakes players make is:
1) Assigning too tight of a range, saying players will never do X. That's always a sign of flawed reasoning. I've played poker at high levels for over 7 years, and I can't even tell you how many times as I was moving up the stake ladder that a player flipped over a hand I thought there was no way he could have. It's a mistake to not say at least x% of the time, they have have Y hand.
2) Assuming other think like you do.

Just because you wouldn't stack off with an overpair, doesn't mean your opponents won't here. The min raise doesn't change his range to include only monster.

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This is micros though. I have enough sample on the guy to know he's super super standard and doesn't pay off light, as well as the fact that he doesn't play overpairs like this.

John A said:

Let's include only sets, two major draws AdQds+ only, and say they will stack off with QQ+ only 40% of the time. You're still a favorite in hand 2.

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I like this. I feel like its not too generous and probably a pretty logical range to give him. Thanks

Take a screen shoot of his stats by position.An post them here.Make sure to block out his name.

JOEBOB69 said:

Take a screen shoot of his stats by position.An post them here.Make sure to block out his name.

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cant figure out how to make it bigger, hopefully you can open it up somehow?

jchoop said:

This is micros though. I have enough sample on the guy to know he's super super standard and doesn't pay off light, as well as the fact that he doesn't play overpairs like this.

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And like I said, if that's your read, then go with it. Not sure why you were posting the hand though because it sounds like you already know the answers.

FYI though, even if you think someone will "never" do something, that's rarely true. Sometimes they deviate from their norm.

John A said:

And like I said, if that's your read, then go with it. Not sure why you were posting the hand though because it sounds like you already know the answers.

FYI though, even if you think someone will "never" do something, that's rarely true. Sometimes they deviate from their norm.

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ye i do know the answers, i shipped in both cases so i saw haha. And thats true too, thanks for your advice, appreciate it

Knowing the result isn't the same as knowing what the correct play would be.

baudib1 said:

Knowing the result isn't the same as knowing what the correct play would be.

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yeah thats what i meant sorry, hence the post