$25 NLHE 6-max: TPTK, paired board, facing shove

Bovada, so no stats. MP seems to be a pretty alert player and pretty reg-ish. When he calls, I suspect it's with reasonable hands, not garbage. I expect pairs, suited connectors, and broadway hands.

SB: $20.73
BB: $25.00
(Hero): $46.99
MP: $28.69
BTN: $13.92

Pre Flop: (5 players) [$0.35] Hero is dealt
Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: (3 players) [$2.35]
BB checks, Hero bets $1.35, MP calls $1.35, BB calls $1.35

Turn: (3 players) [$6.40]
BB checks, Hero bets $4.65, MP raises to $26.59 (all-in), BB folds, Hero...

The pot, after the shove is $37.64 and it costs me $21.94 to call. I am getting 1.716:1 pot odds and need 36.8% equity to break even.

It seems suicidal to call here, but MP is basically representing only 8 hands. MP is trying to represent: QQ, 77, 88, 87s, 76s (8 combos). Really, he shouldn't have 88 here, so 5 likely combos. My hand is pretty face-up here, I look like I have exactly what I have.

Anyway, this one had me thinking on the table today. Want to know what other people think. Does he have enough Q-x hands that he's trying to turn into a bluff to fold AQ to make a call here? Does he have any bluffs, or at least enough to make a call right?

snap fold and not even close. Why can't he have 97?

I don't think you can discount 88 here, nor A7. It looks like a fold to me.

baudib1 said:

snap fold and not even close. Why can't he have 97?

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Because he's pretty TAGish and has shown no fish-signs that would make me believe he's calling an UTG raise with one-gappers (suited or not). For him to have 97s in his range, he's calling an UTG raise with like 36% of his hands. He's shown no indication of being that fishy.

Interested in knowing why you think this isn't even close. It doesn't take many hands to find the equity here. I hadn't even considered the flush-draw when I was thinking about it in the hand, but that's something else he could be shoving as a semi-bluff. This isn't a turn-raise from your loose passive player. This guy has been pretty aggressive in position on this table.

I don't think you can discount 88 here, nor A7. It looks like a fold to me.

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I don't know many reg-ish players that call an UTG raise with A7. I don't completely discount 88 here, it's about half his turn value shoving range. It's a bit loose to float the flop with that, but it's something I expect is within his abilities.

vinnie said:

I don't know many reg-ish players that call an UTG raise with A7. I don't completely discount 88 here, it's about half his turn value shoving range. It's a bit loose to float the flop with that, but it's something I expect is within his abilities.

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If he's a reg and perceives you as TAG then he's going to like to call your UTG raises with speculative hands like A7s or (even) 97s. High implied odds against your strong range, over 100 BB deep.
88 is an excellent bluff catcher on this board and your c-bet may well look formulaic to him.

Easy fold.

BigThingWithHolesInIt said:

If he's a reg and perceives you as TAG then he's going to like to call your UTG raises with speculative hands like A7s or (even) 97s. High implied odds against your strong range, over 100 BB deep.
88 is an excellent bluff catcher on this board and your c-bet may well look formulaic to him.

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A7s is a pretty weak speculative hand. There's not many boards he can expect to get me to stack off on where he'd have me beat.

The next question becomes, if he has the nuts or a nut-type hand (like 9-7), why shove? I mean, I am almost certainly going to have to fold to a shove here. If he calls, he might get another bet on the river if I bet. He might even get me to call a raise on the river. If I don't bet the river, he's in position and can value bet it. My bets on the flop and turn could be continuation bets (flop is hard to hit, so is turn). There's no reason for him to be confident that I am very strong. If I have a hand, it's probably just top pair.

you're leveling yourself in a spot that is a 100% standard fold.

It seems like you have no real handle on how this person plays. But

1. If he's a nit then you can never call here because he's never bluffing. Leveling yourself into calls in this spot because "LOL you rep thin" isn't going to work out for you.
2. If he's not a nit then he has plenty of 7x hands that beat you in addition to the nutty parts of his range.

Based on the information given I don't think we can give him a range. If we can't assign a range and are being put to a decision for all our chips, while not getting good odds and facing the strongest line ever then I have to go with Baudib and say it is a fold, and an easy one at that.

This is a tough spot. I can see him trying to push you out of the hand with KQ here. But I think him calling preflop in position with A7s, 78s, and 67s are also distinct possibilities to balance his normally tight range in position - you did say he seemed smart.

Did you fold or call?

When I move up in levels, on a site, I typically set aside 3-4 buy-ins for what I consider loose calls or shoves.

Anyway, I did call. I figured, if I was wrong, it's just one of those buy-ins I set aside for being a fish in a new level.

But, I didn't make the call lightly. I made the choice to call only after I tried to figure out what he believed I would call with. The only hands I "can" call this shove with are 77, QQ, and 88. There's nothing else in my range that is strong enough to call here. On top of that, very few of his value hands profit from that calling range (basically, he only profits from my calling range when he holds 77 or QQ).

Based on how narrow Hero's range is on this board, if I was villian I would call with all my trips or better hands and shove the rest of my range. When I call, I give all the single pairs another chance to put in a bet. If Hero has a stronger hand, the money will all go in on the river anyway. I am in position so I never miss a bet on the river. When I shove, I am risking $26.59 to win $11.05 which means I needs Hero to be folding 71% of the time, but Hero's calling range is SO narrow (7 combos) that he should be folding well over 90% of the time here. The shove is instantly +EV assuming Hero can't call with his 1-pair hands.

And, from what he's seen of my play, I know he knows I likely don't over-value my hands. I suspected he knew I could lay down a solid pair here, even an over-pair. But, even if I am calling with over-pairs, AA and KK (19 combos), I still fold over 85% of the time. His shove is +EV. That's really what struck me as interesting about this hand. With a typical UTG range on this board, a player can pretty much shove this turn bet, against a player who is capable of bet/folding, with impunity.

Now, I know you're dying to know. What did Villain have? I called. Villain showed 9-9, river was a blank. I won the pot. I was more interested in if anyone else saw that Villain's shoving range against a non-station should be 100% bluffs on this turn. It seems suicidal, on the surface, but if the UTG player has a well defined range and is capable of bet/folding, I think it's +EV.

Right after this hand, I realized that having this guy with immediate position on me wasn't going to be to my advantage. I planned to play one more round and then sit out. But, he sat out and left before I did.

Edit: The preponderance of "snap-fold, it's not even close" type responses here is exactly what I expected and why I think this is a +EV spot for the Villain to shove 100% of his non-nut hands.

Interesting result. After I posted, I was also thinking that in addition to being behind with KQ here with his shove, something like JJ or 1010 was a possibility also if he doesn't always 3-bet with those hands pre. 99 in this spot for him plays a similar turn bluffing role I guess.

Now I'm trying to figure out whether it really is +EV for him to shove the turn in this spot. Given your preflop raise a Q or even over pair to the board looks likely for you, and the board isn't really scary enough to get you to fold is it?

stately7 said:

Interesting result. After I posted, I was also thinking that in addition to being behind with KQ here with his shove, something like JJ or 1010 was a possibility also if he doesn't always 3-bet with those hands pre. 99 in this spot for him plays a similar turn bluffing role I guess.

Now I'm trying to figure out whether it really is +EV for him to shove the turn in this spot. Given your preflop raise a Q or even over pair to the board looks likely for you, and the board isn't really scary enough to get you to fold is it?

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Well, it depends on the player. If the player is capable of bet/folding the turn with one pair hands (which many regs and ABC players are very capable of this thanks to the popularity of the Beluga theorem), then this bet should get them to fold a significant amount of the time. Villain doesn't rep much, but the line is very strong and most people aren't going to want to call such a large bet without a very strong hand, which is very hard to hold here.

Really, how many Q-x hands would you call this shove with? There are many in my range, but none that can really call this shove. Just because I have a hand in my range doesn't mean I can call this shove with it.

If this was the BB who shoved, I fold 100% of the time. BB is a much fishier player, and he's shoving without considering if I call with worse. I would fold AA to a shove on the turn from a fish, without even second thought. I think most players fold here. So, against a normal player, I think the shove here gets a fold from just about everything. Obviously, against a calling-station, you're not getting them to fold JJ. But, everyone should know not to bluff stations.


Edit: I should probably add that the Villain in the original hand has seen me bet/fold the turn at least twice since he's sat down. The most recent time had been to a player with a medium-stack who shoved over my turn bet. So, he's definitely got some observations that suggest that I can fold to strength. As it happened, I had nothing that most recent hand, but Villain doesn't know it wasn't the decently strong hand I was representing.

Shoving 99 there is not +ev...

TylerN said:

Shoving 99 there is not +ev...

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Against many players, I suspect that you are correct. But, your decent TAG/ABC/Reg's bet-flop, bet-turn, call-turn-shove line for this board is going to be extremely unbalanced.

Off the top of my head, and assuming a decent player folds all hands worse than 88 on this board, the UTG player can only bet 16 or fewer pair combos. Any more than that and he needs to start calling with some two-pair hands or allow the MP to show an instant profit.

I am willing to bet a reasonable range for a second barrel here has way more than 23 combos (the 16 we fold and the 7 we call). I mean, just AA, KK, and AQ give us 24 combos we should be bet/folding. And we all know we're probably betting more hands than that on this turn.

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If you have a read that he will turn all his bluffcatchers into bluffs then calling is good. But you didn't give that. Your average NL25 Bovada reg is not going to turn his made hands into bluffs. Shoving turn is not going to be +EV against most because most people aren't folding TPTK+ here.

The only other thought about this hand Vinnie... I wonder if you had checked the turn (for pot control) and then gone into call down mode, would you perhaps have had easier decisions to make? Obv villain dependent, just a thought.

u play it right, u r the agresser here, why in earth with a 7 in his hand or a full would he raise it's a non sense, with those hands he would call and raise on the river for value.
the raise here means protection with a weak Q or JJ, 10 i dont think that he is putting u on AQ.
for me it a call.

stately7 said:

The only other thought about this hand Vinnie... I wonder if you had checked the turn (for pot control) and then gone into call down mode, would you perhaps have had easier decisions to make? Obv villain dependent, just a thought.

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This has been a large part of my thinking about the hand since I played it. At the micros, I default to going for value above taking pot-control lines, simply because I don't expect other players to put me to hard decisions.

I still feel like betting this turn is slightly better only because most of my expected value from this hand comes from the BB chasing a flush or calling down with worse than AQ. I wasn't sure MP was really able to pull such a move and, without being sure, I wouldn't want to sacrifice value for a defense that might not even apply. Then again, I probably should be more attentive to spots like these against aggressive opponents who have position on me, in the future.