$25 NLHE 6-max: TPTK, paired board, facing shove
, so no stats. MP seems to be a pretty alert player and pretty reg-ish. When he calls, I suspect it's with reasonable hands, not garbage. I expect pairs, suited connectors, and broadway hands.
Pre Flop: (5 players) [$0.35] Hero is dealt
Hero raises to $0.75
, MP calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50
Flop: (3 players) [$2.35]
BB checks, Hero bets $1.35
, MP calls $1.35, BB calls $1.35
Turn: (3 players) [$6.40]
BB checks, Hero bets $4.65, MP raises to $26.59 (all-in)
, BB folds, Hero...
The pot, after the shove is $37.64 and it costs me $21.94 to call. I am getting 1.716:1 pot odds
and need 36.8% equity to break even.
It seems suicidal to call here, but MP is basically representing only 8 hands. MP is trying to represent: QQ, 77, 88, 87s, 76s (8 combos). Really, he shouldn't have 88 here, so 5 likely combos. My hand is pretty face-up here, I look like I have exactly what I have.
Anyway, this one had me thinking on the table today. Want to know what other people think. Does he have enough Q-x hands that he's trying to turn into a bluff to fold AQ to make a call here? Does he have any bluffs, or at least enough to make a call right?