$25 NLHE 6-max: TP2K; villain slows down on river

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baudib1

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/15/2.7

What to do....seems unlikely he'd check AQ+ here.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($11.50)
CO ($38.03)
Hero (BTN) ($36.67)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN K:spade: Q:spade:
UTG calls $0.25, CO raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: 5:heart: Q:heart: 6:diamond: ($4.10, 3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls $3, UTG folds

Turn: 3:spade: ($10.10, 2 players)
CO bets $6.75, Hero calls $6.75

River: 8:diamond: ($23.60, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero?
 
KardKlub

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Check behind and take a note. I think you've got good value already on a one pair hand, and he bet again on a crappy turn card so check behind and see why he bet that. That's where my thinking lies.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'd check AQ/KK/AA there to let various broken draws bluff. But since he raised in the CO, he could have QJ, QT, maybe Q9 in his range. I don't hate taking him to jamrock, since your hand can look like all manner of broken draws.

However, an 18/15 is typically pretty tight. I wouldn't expect him to call a shove with worse queens, and that's even assuming he raises worse queens over a limper. I'd just have a showdown. Against a 29/27 I'd feel much better about a river shove.
 
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baudib1

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Check behind and take a note. I think you've got good value already on a one pair hand, and he bet again on a crappy turn card so check behind and see why he bet that. That's where my thinking lies.

I understand this thinking cuz I would probably do this a lot of the time as well with a good SDV hand but I am trying to find spots where we're losing value more than half the time, as thin as it is.

So I've stoved this and it's a clear clear shove with AQ (obviously) but it's slightly thin here because I agree a nit might slow down with all his 1-pair hands. KQ is barely a favorite vs. a range of QT+/KQ/AQ/KK+

I think the question is how wide he is ISOing vs. a bad limper. If he can have QJ/QT I think we should bet or shove (probably shove) and if he can fold the same hand this becomes hugely +EV imo.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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If he can have QJ/QT I think we should bet or shove (probably shove) and if he can fold the same hand this becomes hugely +EV imo.
He's not going to call with QJ/QT and fold KQ.

So you're either doing this to get him to fold 1 pair (bad idea), or you're getting him to call with worse queens & maybe the odd JJ/TT. Assuming he even plays QT/QJ or plays it like this (firing two barrels).
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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he could do either one.
And if he folds KQ, that's obviously a bad result, since its pretty rare that he'll fold AQ or KK+.

You have to be betting this river for value or as a bluff. If you're sitting there saying "he could do either one" then its probably right in the middle between value & bluff. And you know what we do with those hands? See free showdowns. Just by saying "he could do either one" pretty much gives you your answer.
 
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baudib1

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And if he folds KQ, that's obviously a bad result, since its pretty rare that he'll fold AQ or KK+.

You have to be betting this river for value or as a bluff. If you're sitting there saying "he could do either one" then its probably right in the middle between value & bluff. And you know what we do with those hands? See free showdowns. Just by saying "he could do either one" pretty much gives you your answer.

i understand that checking back is standard; range-merging, putting people to difficult decisions in large pots, not giving cheap showdowns, embracing variance, and shoving for thin value make us tougher to play against.
 
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baudib1

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or does anyone like vbetting like $10 here.
and
if villain shoves river i think it's a fold?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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i understand that checking back is standard; range-merging, putting people to difficult decisions in large pots, not giving cheap showdowns, embracing variance, and shoving for thin value make us tougher to play against.
Or turns us into a donator because we have fancy play syndrome which is totally non-applicable at 25NL.

As someone who's been there with fancy play syndrome, you have it. I realize you want to post hand histories that make you feel better about your FPS. It feels good to pull off fancy plays, and it makes your e-penis strong. But its more often than not detrimental to your win rate.
 
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baudib1

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really, i can't figure a range where this is -EV; we have to be at minimum 42% vs. his calling range and more than likely 60% vs. his total river range.
 
KardKlub

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I can see What your trying to do here but there are alot better spots.
 
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baudib1

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Alright I understand what you guys are saying and until like a month ago I'd check back here 100% of the time.

I just HATE HATE HATE checking back the best hand so often.
 
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alex23

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lol @check behind. Vbet this 100%. He should basically never have 2p+ and should call with any Qx.
 
ChuckTs

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lol @check behind. Vbet this 100%. He should basically never have 2p+ and should call with any Qx.

+1

There was a flush draw on board, therefore villain bluffcatches 78/89/Qx/any other pair almost always. I can understand slowing down utg v btn or something, but his CO range is still going to be huge. Plenty of value here.
 
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baudib1

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I forgot about this thread.

I think his range is wider than some give him credit for as he's ISOing a weak limper.

As I said, I think it's a crying fold if he shoves river but I think you overestimate how often NL 25ers check river with AQ+.

I tanked, shoved, then he tanked, and with 1 sec left on timebank, called with QJdd.
 
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