$25 NLHE 6-max: TP+Nut FD gets balugad vs spewy reg

$25 NL HE 6-max: TP+Nut FD gets balugad vs spewy reg

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 30/24/2

Villain is a spewy aggro reg that runs a 30/24/2. He 3bets 9%(13 from the blinds). If seen him 3bet small pairs and AQ+ from the blinds so im having a hard time figuring out what he flats and then balugas with.
Im sure he has some air in his range because he seems to like bluffing.
I would expect him to c/r flushdraws and straight draws on the flop atleast most of the time.

Im running at 18/13/2 at this table but i would expect villain to have some hands on me and i usualy run around 15/12/3.
He probably views my as some what weak/tight passive postflop.


UTG: $25.75 (103 bb)
MP: $27.10 (108.4 bb)
CO: $12 (48 bb)
Hero (BTN): $32.85 (131.4 bb)
SB: $47.25 (189 bb)
BB: $72.55 (290.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with A Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3) J 7 5 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2, SB folds, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB raises to $9, Hero?

before i go on to the action at the moment. What do you think he is calling with on the turn that you beat? If you don't really know and you have bet for meta reasons that he knows its a good bluff card then will raise, then you have to call here and let him bluff river. But I don't like the turn bet because he is basically either going to fold or do this

If i have it straight then the pot is 19.50 and it will cost you 4.50 to call.

Well then the pots laying you about 4.3 to 1 on a call here.

If he has something like ak (unlikely since he called flop bet) then 9 spades and 3 queens will win you the pot on the river.

Your about 3 to 1 to hit a spade or a queen on the river. Its an auto call for me.

If you think he has trips then only the 9 spades are valid outs. Still thats about 4 to 1 that you will hit on the river. So you can go ahead and call in that position too.

tricky spot...
actually the pot is 20.50 i believe so the odds are even better call....
for me its an obvious call although you really cant like the c/mr and have to figure you re behind....

based on what you said it sounds like he also capable of doing this with air so if you have a hunch you might actually 4bet him.....

lets say you flat call the pot is then at 25.00...
lets say your miss your FD and the river is a red 2...
and he bets 16 into you? do you call?

mrjohnson911 said:

tricky spot...
actually the pot is 20.50 i believe so the odds are even better call....
for me its an obvious call although you really cant like the c/mr and have to figure you re behind....

based on what you said it sounds like he also capable of doing this with air so if you have a hunch you might actually 4bet him.....

lets say you flat call the pot is then at 25.00...
lets say your miss your FD and the river is a red 2...
and he bets 16 into you? do you call?

Click to expand...

If you miss on the river I think you have to give it up.

kadafi said:

If you miss on the river I think you have to give it up.

Click to expand...

maybe he is on FD himself and will probably still bet at it if missed...

Versus a reg type, I much prefer checking the turn for deception. Might get a bet out of him on the river that way.

You have to at least call the raise though, cuz the spades alone are worth the odds you're being laid.

Call here and reevaluate the river, I'm not necessarily folding on the river also, it depends on the sizing

I was going to say that the turn is an easy bet, and I think this is an easy call, and I don't think checking back the turn or raising the turn c/r are anywhere close in EV.

But that's if I was the hero.

The only reason to check back the turn would be if we think his flop calling range is heavily weighted towards air, that it doesn't contain a lot of aces, and that he would check/fold most of that range on the turn. In that case, checking back the turn is in order to induce a river bluff, and might be good - assuming he'll stab at the river often when we check back. With your image, this might very well be the case.

Differently put, the defining question for me is whether or not he's attentive enough to trust a 15/12 when they bet an ace on the turn in position. If the answer is "yes" and he has it in him to make some big laydowns (I consider QJ to be a big laydown here, for reference) then checking back is probably OK. If the answer is "I don't know" I'll go with the generic route and just play my hand.

Thinking back i kinda like checking back the flop against this specific villain.
I dont think he is gonna c/c 2 street very often and if there is alot of air in his range(like i suspect) its alot easier to check back and induce on river and then shove over on spade rivers and just call brick rivers.



@FP i dont think he ever fold QJ to turn bet but im not sure he c/c the flop very often with Qx.
Im having a real hard time putting him on any real range for flatting prf since he like to 3bet/squeze so im not sure what he flatts with behind a raise and call.
AT/AJ,KQ,QJs,KJs,JTs and some small/mid pairs maybe?



Also as played if we call and river is 2h are we folding river to a
pot bet.
2/3rd pot
half pot.
1/4th pot
ect

sindri_93 said:

I dont think he is gonna c/c 2 street very often

Click to expand...

This is what I was getting at with checking the turn. This guy is likely thinking about your range and comparing his hand to that. He's aggressive, so like you said, he's not gonna just check/call very much.

The ace on the turn slams your range, and he knows that, so when he makes this raise, I don't think he can ever expect someone who just hit their ace to lay down to this small bet. Therefore he probably has something pretty strong, and wants a call.

When you check that through, it's probably just enough incentive for that aggro guy to try and take it down on the river, and you can easily call his river bet.