$25 NLHE 6-max: TP facing check/raise in 3bet pot

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/14/44

Villains fold to 3bet was 100% (only 1/1). fold to flop cbet 50% (only 1/2)

888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $31.80 (VPIP: 19.66, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, hands: 119)
UTG: $35.90 (VPIP: 17.09, PFR: 13.07, 3Bet Preflop: 2.74, Hands: 202)
CO: $31.42 (VPIP: 23.96, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 96)
Hero (BTN): $30.00
SB: $57.40 (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 16.06, 3Bet Preflop: 2.80, Hands: 337)

SB posts SB $0.15, BB posts BB $0.30

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.45) Hero has 8:club: A:club:

fold, CO raises to $1.05, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, CO calls $1.95

Flop: ($6.45, 2 players) 7:heart: 4:club: A:heart:
CO checks, Hero bets $3.30, CO raises to $8.17, Hero?

Assuming the top stats are villain and not the stats within the hand:

I flat pre. Flat > Fold > 3bet imo.
Slightly fishy stats combined with a tiny PFR would cause me to not have a 3bet bluffing range vs this guy.

I checkback the flop, having a hard time seeing much worse call and this guy isn't the type to exploit us when we cap our range checking back.

As played I think I fold, if we gave villain all suited paint he'd have as many flush draws as he has sets but the sets are 100% raising the flush draws not so much. That and the slight fishiness makes AQ an unlikely but possible holding... well probably not I'm just trying to convince myself of my nitty fold.
Defo don't 3bet the flop though!

Well, let's assume he's opening 23% from the CO (I know this is wider than his over-all PFR, but it should be).

That would be something like:
[22+
A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+
T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo]

Obviously, we can't assume he calls with all of those. I'd assume he drops the lowest pairs, 4-bets the highest pairs, drops some of the lower crap from his range. Maybe he calls like 33% of the time, that would be something like:

[QQ-77
AJs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s
AQo+,KQo]

With this range, there are 76 combinations with the 5 cards we know about. When he has top-pair he has a better kicker, so we're beat. That gives us to groups of hands.

Hands that beat us (27.6%):

Hands we beat (72.3%):

Now, which of these hands would check-raise us on this flop? This is guesswork. I'm going to assume this player has some check-raise semi-bluffs in his book. Let's say he does it with one of the pocket pairs (maybe 99) and his flush draws. That's not many combinations, but I still think we're over-estimating how often we get check-raised on this flop.

Hands that beat us (67.7%):

Hands we beat (32.2%):

After all that work, we get a range where we only have 37% equity. And that range is probably overly optimistic. I just can't find a call or raise here after we get check-raised. So, I'd just fold and let it go. I like Deco's idea of checking back the flop to give all those weak pairs a chance to bet. I also am not so sure of the pre-flop 3-bet. But, assuming we give it a shot and get to the flop, I like checking because we allow the villain a chance to put in more money with a worse hand.

Check the flop.

I did consider checking the flop but I thought I'm always cbetting this flop when I have air so when I check villain should know I have like JJ at least. But as Deco said, since villain seems slightly fishy it probably doesn't matter.

Maybe I need to start calling more on the button aswell then