$25 NLHE 6-max: Top Set on Turn vs. possible one card straight and baluga shove.

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 57/2/14.5

Should I call... i know I have outs...
PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
UTG: $29.19
MP: $25.00
CO: $18.27
Hero (BTN): $39.04
SB: $27.27
BB: $7.81
SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K:heart: K:club:
fold, fold, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, CO calls $1.25
Flop: ($3.35, 2 players) 9:spade: J:club: T:heart:
CO checks, Hero bets $2.39, CO calls $2.39
Turn: ($8.13, 2 players) K:diamond:
CO bets $14.38 and is all-in, Hero ?

Sample size?

BTW I snap

Sample size...

Sample size was about 50 hands for villain.

I'm not folding, but I'm not fistpumping or anything.

And pot the flop. No one's ever folding that board.

And lastly, that's not a baluga shove.

think im calling if the players aggressive just because its a good card for him to bluff, and if he really had a hand i think his line is weird just betting straight out when you've already shown aggression... think id happily snap fold if the guy was passive though.

the 14.5 AF is AF isnt it? and not AFq?

Call while you mop your tears up

fold I say, and yeah I am curious about sample size and AF or AFq, if that is AF over a decent sample then he is totally capable of bluffing here, but someone with 14 AFq won't ever bluff. I don't think i ever saw someone with pfr 2 to have 14 AF. usually when they have such a huge AF they are also aggressive preflop, always raising and reraising.

but I still say it is a fold.

Meaning of baluga shove...

I thought baluga shove meant one that far exceeded pot size... please help me clarify ...
thanks kindly.

AF vs. AFq clarification

my bad...
AF is 0.30, AFq is 14.5

I fold then

That's an overbet shove.

I call

Oh yea easy fold

Getting baluga'd is when you have a one pair hand that gets raised or check raised on the turn.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/baluga/

Pascal LeFiscal said:

That's an overbet shove.

I call

Click to expand...

Even with AF of 0.3? This is Qx almost all of the time IMO

Why would he shove a Q?

He shoves JJ/TT/99/KJ/KT/K9 a non-zero % of the time, plus we have suckout value

Thought them stats looked a bit weird to mean AF, so now im happily folding.

i mean sample size isnt very big but even so he seems like a super loose passive and with an AF of 0.3 its a fold from me

Pascal LeFiscal said:

He shoves JJ/TT/99/KJ/KT/K9 a non-zero % of the time, plus we have suckout value

Click to expand...

Yeh non zero- but not a lot. In game- I'm calling, because I'm a fish and would expect to suck out, but when giving advice to others, I try to say what I think is right lol, and looks like a close fold to me. (but call anyway, just so , ya know)

Oh man... it could go either way. I'd toss a coin and go heads call, tails fold - works for me!

ben_rhyno said:

Yeh non zero- but not a lot. In game- I'm calling, because I'm a fish and would expect to suck out, but when giving advice to others, I try to say what I think is right lol, and looks like a close fold to me. (but call anyway, just so , ya know)

Click to expand...

Thing is we absolutely crush anything which isn't a Q, plus we've got equity if he does have a queen, so it doesn't necessarily have to be a large % of the time he doesn't have a queen to make it profitable

AF 0,3 easy fold.

thanks for baluga clarification...
i did end up folding... so I guess we will never know if he had that queen.
mbat.

If he has the queen he has the nuts im not sure why he would be shoving a queen? I think this is J10 kinda hands wayy more often just scared, call imo..

because passive fish usually go ape shit when they have the nuts...