$25 NLHE 6-max: standard call?

dcor

dcor

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$25 NL HE 6-max: standard call?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 52/2/0.8

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
Button ($25)
Hero (SB) ($29.95)
BB ($19.77)
UTG ($21.61)
MP ($5.25)
CO ($28.13)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q
heart.gif
, A
club.gif

UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1
Flop: ($3.75) K
club.gif
, Q
club.gif
, J
club.gif
(3 players)
Hero bets $2.75, BB raises to $18.52 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ??
 
Deco

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lol urrgh this hand strike fear into me.
If our straight outs were good I'd say the calls around break even. If were just hanging on to our flush outs its -EV if we have two pair/trips outs were the favourite to win the hand.
Is this guy horribly aggressive? Is he tilting? His stats suggest he is more of a loose passive player so I'd go for a fold. If this was a good player I'd be suspicious of such a huge overbet, when it's a passive fishcake it tends to be their way of letting you know they have a monster.
 
WVHillbilly

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Snap call. From Pokerstove:

Board: Kc Qc Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.357% 42.71% 00.65% 27484 416.50 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 56.643% 56.00% 00.65% 36033 416.50 { Any2clubs/AK/KJ/QJ/JT}

So basically if he's never bluffing (and he will be occasionally) and you really are behind (I included no hands you were already beating in his range) it's a little worse than a coin flip. Consider dead money and the fact that he could have some pair+draw type hands that we're ahead of, I call.

I did not include AA,KK, QQ in his preflop range because those hands never flat OOP.
 
Deco

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Snap call. From the range I perceive Villain to have in Pokerstove:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.357% 42.71% 00.65% 27484 416.50 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 56.643% 56.00% 00.65% 36033 416.50 { Any2clubs/AK/KJ/QJ/JT}
FYP:p

I'm far from sure on my fold. I may likely be wrong but I aint liking that range. Any two clubs is certainly within his range 100% of the time.

AK/KJ/QJ/JT are the hands which make our equity reasonable here. Giving the likelihood a passive player will do this with toppair twopair and draws on this board the same weight as him doing it with the flush is defo inaccurate. You've also forgot the straight.

I'd say we could put one instance of two pair in here at most. Just because this guys insanely loose doesnt mean we can guarantee he's madly aggressive. If he's tilting or he had been a 54/37 then this is a snap call.

ps
How do you put any two clubs into pokerstove?
 
dcor

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Snap call. From Pokerstove:

Board: Kc Qc Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.357% 42.71% 00.65% 27484 416.50 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 56.643% 56.00% 00.65% 36033 416.50 { Any2clubs/AK/KJ/QJ/JT}

So basically if he's never bluffing (and he will be occasionally) and you really are behind (I included no hands you were already beating in his range) it's a little worse than a coin flip. Consider dead money and the fact that he could have some pair+draw type hands that we're ahead of, I call.

I did not include AA,KK, QQ in his preflop range because those hands never flat OOP.
you forgot KQ as well sir. I dont see why you would leave that out...Also, why not AT, and JJ?....all of these are in the raising range......
 
WVHillbilly

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I did forget AT but KQ was in my range I just left it out when I condensed it. I left JJ out intentionally as I don't see most players flatting with JJ from the blinds.

Still think you have plenty of equity.

As far as selecting any 2 clubs in stove just select any suited and then deselect the other suits at the bottom right. To get all the ATs/KQs/KJs/QJs hands back in you have to deselect then reselect that hand, so it give more than just the cc to his range.
 
5TR8 FLUSH

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I would of called because even if BB had a made flush, straight or trips its still almost a coin flip. You could of made a royal, straight or a higher flush. :D

DID YOU CALL??? :)
 
WVHillbilly

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Adding AT to his range leaves us with about 40% equity and I still haven't included anything that we beat.

Here is how stove lists the actual range that I used:

AKs, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KJs+, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, QJs, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Qc5c, Qc4c, Qc3c, Qc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, AKo, ATo, KJo+, QJo }
 
bgomez89

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you forgot KQ as well sir. I dont see why you would leave that out...Also, why not AT, and JJ?....all of these are in the raising range......
JJ is probably 3betting preflop.

Considering is stats, im probably folding this one despite our outs
 
dcor

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yeah JJ would have 3bet pre probably....I called, hit the nuts.......villian had KQ. I thought about it for ten seconds....thought I had enough outs to call.....Any A's, Q's, T's, Clubs.......thought at best it was a coin flip....but just wanted to see your thoughts.
 
WVHillbilly

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Against his actual hand you were a favorite.
 
B

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it can't ever be a big mistake to call with a royal draw.
 
Deco

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yeah JJ would have 3bet pre probably....I called, hit the nuts.......villian had KQ..

Urrgh I think I underestimate just how bad 50+ Vpip players are.
Even the lads I play live with would check this down to the river in fear of the flush and their all near to 100VPIPs :p
 
WVHillbilly

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Urrgh I think I underestimate just how bad 50+ Vpip players are.
Even the lads I play live with would check this down to the river in fear of the flush and their all near to 100VPIPs :p

So because they fear the flush they're better??? While I don't think the BBs ch/shove is necessarily the best play, not being willing to stack top 2 on a monotone flop only 80bbs deep would be pretty bad imo.

If we play the hand from our villains perspective and look at how our top 2 compare to hero's continuation range (what he'll likely call a shove with) I think we're a coin flip. Add FE and shoving certainly a +EV play.

Compare KQ to { TT+, AKs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, AKo, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, ATo, KJo+, QJo } and we've got ~49% equity.
 
Deco

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So because they fear the flush they're better??? While I don't think the BBs ch/shove is necessarily the best play, not being willing to stack top 2 on a monotone flop only 80bbs deep would be pretty bad imo.

If we play the hand from our villains perspective and look at how our top 2 compare to hero's continuation range (what he'll likely call a shove with) I think we're a coin flip. Add FE and shoving certainly a +EV play.

Compare KQ to { TT+, AKs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, AKo, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, ATo, KJo+, QJo } and we've got ~49% equity.

You know I think your right (although snap call is abit ott). I see that raise as strength and am grossly misinterpretation what this guy sees as strength.
 
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