$25 NLHE 6-max: Ship river for value vs non spewy reg?

Cafeman

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Villain is a fairly straight forward reg, 22/18 over 2k hands, capable of barreling, thin vbet/folds etc. the usual.

Stacks:
UTG (€34.92) 140bb
CO (€26.10) 104bb
Hero (€32.77) 131bb
SB (€19.80) 79bb
BB (€57.52) 230bb

Pre-Flop: (€0.35, 5 players) Hero K 10 1 fold, CO raises to €0.75, Hero calls €0.75, 2 folds

Flop: 10 10 6 (€1.85, 2 players)
CO bets €1.20,Hero calls €1.20

Turn: A (€4.25, 2 players)
CO bets €2.50, Hero calls €2.50

River: 6 (€9.25, 2 players)
CO bets €6, Hero...?

Standard ship?
 
Cafeman

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Interesting, cos I thought I'd described a villain who wouldn't call with worse.
 
WVHillbilly

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Everyone is capable of calling with worse on a double-paired board with a missed FD. Everyone.
 
youregoodmate

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You might not get calls very often, but you're good here so so often that to not ship would be wasting the times he will look you up.
 
acky100

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What worse calls? Not seeing it personally, i just call, really think raising is bad here.
 
John A

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So a decent reg in your opinion, capable of thin value, doubling and not calling with worse. So you cold call w/ KTo?

As played, shipping the river is fine since you can rep missed flush draw and can widen his calling range.
 
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ibfoolio

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just call, raise seems like a terrible idea
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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lol lets ship river! haha are you kidding? no, lets not.

shoving here with air more often than I'm shoving a T for value.
 
WVHillbilly

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lol lets ship river! haha are you kidding? no, lets not.

shoving here with air more often than I'm shoving a T for value.
If you're ever shoving here with air you absolutely HAVE to shove here with a ten.
 
John A

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lol lets ship river! haha are you kidding? no, lets not.

shoving here with air more often than I'm shoving a T for value.

If you broke it down by hand combos only, there are more combos that will call than combos that have you beat.

On a side note, there's a point at certain stakes where this becomes an auto ship because the second best calling ranges get so much wider, but 25nl probably isn't one of them.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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If you're ever shoving here with air you absolutely HAVE to shove here with a ten.

we don't have to be balanced here, he's never heroing AQ that he thin valued turns with.

regs are always bet folding an A so we only really get called by chops and AT, that can't be +ev.. its a flat.
 
bz54321

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Lets say you bet half pot and they come over are you worried that they have AA or 66. This would be a great 4 bet\call I am thinking.
 
Cafeman

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So a decent reg in your opinion, capable of thin value, doubling and not calling with worse. So you cold call w/ KTo?

Actually, while the HH is real, I was villain in this hand and wondered whether or not he should have shipped river vs me :)

He's a reg who probs calls too much IP to outplay TAGs like me, and he always has at least a T here (as he did).
 
John A

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Actually, while the HH is real, I was villain in this hand and wondered whether or not he should have shipped river vs me :)

He's a reg who probs calls too much IP to outplay TAGs like me, and he always has at least a T here (as he did).

What did you have? AT or Ax?
 
John A

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we don't have to be balanced here, he's never heroing AQ that he thin valued turns with.

regs are always bet folding an A so we only really get called by chops and AT, that can't be +ev.. its a flat.

Is he ever calling AK in your games? You are kind of forgetting a few hands that will/should call - 5s6s, 6s7s, 6s8s,6s9s etc
 
Cafeman

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AA, so I won, but I got to thinking after the hand that he basically over-repped his hand. I snapped, but there are other regs who may have nit-rolled the poor guy lol
 
John A

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AA, so I won, but I got to thinking after the hand that he basically over-repped his hand. I snapped, but there are other regs who may have nit-rolled the poor guy lol

Ya, it really depends on your games. I think at 25nl the second best calling range is obviously going to be much more narrow because the games are more passive and more straight forward. But even still call/ship it close depending on opponent (you in this case).

AT (1 combo) ,AA, (2 combos), 66 (1 combo), A6 (6 combos)
vs
(tight 25nl calling range) AK (9 combos), 56s - 69s (5 combos)

10 combos that have you beat
14 worse combos that call

And if you say X% of the time AK or 6x won't call, then it's super close.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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Cafe you ruined it!

and people are folding AK in that spots because no-one ever bluffs.. + I play FR but regs don't try to outplay other regs that often.

6x doesn't call a river shove, 6x is a bluffcatcher same as Ax..
 
acky100

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I really am not buying that at 25-100nl shipping here is for value not even slightly. I dont think any reg who is the least bit competent is gonna think twice about calling with AQ here "oh he has a T i fold", people are pretty much programmed to bet fold these days after 2p2 made everyone play the same robotic way. Also, people don't bluff shove these boards very much in my experience, sorry just cant see a shove being good here, first thought was that it was probably too thin, the more i think about it the more i think it is bad.
 
Ducky7

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I really am not buying that at 25-100nl shipping here is for value not even slightly. I dont think any reg who is the least bit competent is gonna think twice about calling with AQ here "oh he has a T i fold", people are pretty much programmed to bet fold these days after 2p2 made everyone play the same robotic way. Also, people don't bluff shove these boards very much in my experience, sorry just cant see a shove being good here, first thought was that it was probably too thin, the more i think about it the more i think it is bad.

Ye this .. I dont understand what calls unless you are a maniac and the reg knows that but you are not so he wont. He's never calling with worse i think without the A on board we can do so if its an undercard to the T/6 as he wont have any overboats its probably a shove OTR but the A adds more boats to his range that will call and beat us
 
John A

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Cafe you ruined it!

and people are folding AK in that spots because no-one ever bluffs.. + I play FR but regs don't try to outplay other regs that often.

6x doesn't call a river shove, 6x is a bluffcatcher same as Ax..

Ya, but you need to understand your perspective on this hand is coming from someone who is playing micro full ring. Even micro 6-max is much different. I've coached people at 50nl before where opponents are trying to outplay them. You have some false statements in your post. People never bluff. I've seen someone bluff once before. Frequency may be slim at these stakes (and that's the crux of the argument), but it will happen.

I think the problem when people try and discuss situations like this is the context is completely missing and people have a natural tendency to interject their playing style into the hand. It's really difficult not to. But look how easily a hand like this can move from fold to call to shove.

Nit bets every street hard and shoves river - most opponents are folding.
Decent reg bets every street and 2/3rds the river- most opponent are calling.
Decent thinking reg bets every street, 2/3rds river against an opponent who has a high aggression factor and is capable of bluffing/floating draws - opponent should shove.

But if you think that people will always bet/fold AQ+ in your games, then you should just call.
 
John A

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I really am not buying that at 25-100nl shipping here is for value not even slightly. I dont think any reg who is the least bit competent is gonna think twice about calling with AQ here "oh he has a T i fold", people are pretty much programmed to bet fold these days after 2p2 made everyone play the same robotic way. Also, people don't bluff shove these boards very much in my experience, sorry just cant see a shove being good here, first thought was that it was probably too thin, the more i think about it the more i think it is bad.

Really? You may be right at 25 and 50nl. I've seen plenty of good 6-max regs at 100 and 200 nl run multiple street bluffs like this before though.
 
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