$25 NLHE 6-max: set vs passive fish deep

J

js520

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villain is a huge fish and he is passive, stats are 84/0, 38% Afq and 38% fold to cbet over 41 hands. I have a note on him that he doesn't bluff missed draws when its obvious he should.

888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: $34.18
CO: $31.01
Hero (BTN): $73.86
SB: $31.66
BB: $66.72

SB posts SB $0.15, BB posts BB $0.30

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.45) Hero has Jc Js

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.90, fold, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) Jd Qc 8s
BB checks, Hero bets $1.95, BB calls $1.95

Turn: ($5.85, 2 players) Kc
BB checks, Hero bets $5.85, BB raises to $11.70, Hero calls $5.85

River: ($29.25, 2 players) 6h
BB bets $31.42, Hero?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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villain is a huge fish and he is passive

$1.50+ preflop. We're 200+ deep, villain is a massive fish, and our goal is to make the most possible off this guy.

Postflop, I think flat/flat this deep is ok - we're never folding - but there's probably room to just repop somewhere to get full stacks in. He needs to have played most/all of his 2 pair hands this way which is a bit hopeful, but this guy's terrible, he has all kinds of weird hands in there.
 
forsakenone

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I always call this spot, although I think we should fold more as they always seem to show the goods in this spot. Wish I had the heart to press fold but I almost never do. And if we think about it there are plenty of hands that beat us, like 9T, QQ, KK and AT while we beat QJ, KJ, Q8, K8 and maybe AA, even tho I am not sure he would play all his 2 pairs like that.

Minraise on turn, pot on riv, I smell T9 or AT.
 
ChuckTs

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getting 2:1 (we need %33 to BE on a call), vs a range of 2 pair/straights/88 (omitting the 8x 2 pairs which is pretty conservative imo):

Board: Jd Qc 8s Kc 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.000% 36.00% 00.00% 18 0.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 64.000% 64.00% 00.00% 32 0.00 { 88, ATs, KJs+, QJs, T9s, ATo, KJo+, QJo, T9o }

Don't ever ever ever fold this spot.
 
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js520

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Chuck thanks for the replies,
I'm not sure he would play 2pair like this though. He's passive so i can't see him raising the turn when i've bet the pot on flop and turn and then overbetting the river with a 2pair hand. Just my opinion that a passive fish wouldn't play a 2pair like this.
 
ChuckTs

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And that's fine. You're the one playing regularly at these stakes and as such should have a better read on most villains.

If that's the case though, then I don't see what you're asking of the forum. If you're so sure it's a straight so often, then it's obviously just a fold. Look at your pot odds, punch in hand ranges into pokerstove, and compare your equity to your odds to see if you can call profitably.

I still stand to say that we should never ever fold a spot like this. Never underestimate the wonkiness and inconsistency of 80+ vpip players :/ I've seen hands like Ac8c more times than I can count in spots exactly like these.
 
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js520

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I posted the hand to see if people did think that he would play 2pair like this, my original opinion is that he wouldn't but it's good to see what other's think. My experience is limited compared to you and most of the other guys on the forum so if you think he does then your probably right.
 
acky100

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i fold but not because i don't understand pot odds and ranges, just because i feel more 80/0's are the type to consistently just call call call with some of the two pairs in chucks range (even see them calling with sets a non-zero % too - probably correct play by them), that said they definitely can occasionally do something weird, but i still expect them to play AT and T9 like this everytime, for that reason i think folding is good.


These are the spots that kind of don't matter in poker, ask 50 winning players what they do here and you might get 50/50 on call or fold, the less a spot comes up and the closer the EV gained by playing it correctly, the less we should lose sleep thinking about solving it, a spot that happens every 100 hands though, even if the EV of playing that spot better is tiny like 1/2 a bb more is obviously going to be much more in our interest to solve!


edit edit: if this fish has really been passive there is no way i can see a call being good, if thats the case i dont see how we can give him so many 2 pairs or even think he would raise with 8x two pairs. Plus we should include bigger sets which are always in his range.
 
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Agree with acky mostly; feel the key concept is weighted ranges...We should expect his range to be a lot of AT for the stone-cold nuts, which he will probably play exactly like this 100% of the time. There's just no way he'll play QJ this way with nearly the same frequency.

Where I disagree is that I don't think it's that close. If the guy had shown any kind of aggrotard/spew factor then sure, snap it off, but as Acky said, he's more likely to play KK this way than Q8. It's a pretty basic principle where a massive fish who's an extremely loose passive takes the strongest long possible (check-raise turn, shovel 120 BBs in on the river) you should be re-evaluating what your concept of the nuts is.
 
acky100

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yeah i take back the thought of it possibly being somewhat close, looks like a pretty easy fold the more i think about it
 
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js520

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River: ($29.25, 2 players) 6h
BB bets $31.42, fold

Like Acky and baudib said i couldn't see him playing 2pair like this and thought he nearly always has a straight here. I even doubt he would bet that big on the river if he had a set. I think a fish this passive would just call down on this board with 2pair especially as i'm betting so big.
 
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