$25 NLHE 6-max: River spot with bottom full house

IPlay

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PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 80.36 BB (VPIP: 39.06, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, hands: 65)
BTN: 171.92 BB (VPIP: 20.43, PFR: 15.05, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 97)
Hero (SB): 212.48 BB
BB: 98.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG: 166.72 BB (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 97)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 2:spade: 2:diamond:

fold, fold, BTN raises to 3.4 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold

Flop: (7.8 BB, 2 players) T:heart: 9:spade: 2:club:
Hero checks, BTN bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 14.6 BB, BTN calls 9.6 BB

Turn: (37 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond:
Hero bets 21.68 BB, BTN calls 21.68 BB

River: (80.36 BB, 2 players) 7:club:
Hero bets 58.88 BB, BTN raises to 132.24 BB and is all-in, Hero ???


Pretty solid tag player that I have been raising throughout the night with success
 
Figaroo2

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Yeah tricky spot, difficult to assign ranges from a button open and SB flat.
The absence of any flush draws is helpful as he could hit a straight on the river and be over valuing it.
The fact that the 7 completes something like J8 86 and that he bets so strongly on the river suggests 2 things to me. Either he rivered a straight or he backed into a boat with 77. I don't think 77 in the hole would call the turn though.
Who knows maybe he even shoves A9.
If he had T9 TT and you've been pushing him around you'd have heard about it before the river . Also if you've been leaning on him expect him to fightback with any half decent value hand.
I'm calling expecting to see J8 86 A9 9x 77 in that sort of order.
 
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Mitchel Cornodelli

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i would never flat 22 vs a btn steal ever! You are oop against a btn raiser who is opening a wide range of hands and hardly offering any implied odds, also since the bb is yet to act he could still just squeeze you out so definitely fold preflop.

C/raise on flop is fine but bet bigger on the turn id say 30-35bb

Tough on the river but as it says in the previous post i would call expecting those hands mentioned to call.
 
Figaroo2

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Actually the previous poster has a point. I recently looked at my small pairs 22-44 using leakbuster and it showed I was making more 3betting them than by flatting them against late position raisers.
Even when you hit you rarely get paid. Better flatting against the stronger opening raises of EP and MP where you might get a couple of streets of value.
 
c9h13no3

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Describe your thought process preflop.
 
IPlay

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He is opening, I have a pair and we are 172bb deep and he is probably making lighter calls due to history. I fold all day 100bb deep. Not sure if call is right since 172bb deep though.
 
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Yeah tricky spot, difficult to assign ranges from a button open and SB flat.
The absence of any flush draws is helpful as he could hit a straight on the river and be over valuing it.
The fact that the 7 completes something like J8 86 and that he bets so strongly on the river suggests 2 things to me. Either he rivered a straight or he backed into a boat with 77. I don't think 77 in the hole would call the turn though.
Who knows maybe he even shoves A9.
If he had T9 TT and you've been pushing him around you'd have heard about it before the river . Also if you've been leaning on him expect him to fightback with any half decent value hand.
I'm calling expecting to see J8 86 A9 9x 77 in that sort of order.

I'm expecting to see the nuts 95% of the time here. He's a TAG who probably knows relative hand strength and is not going nuts with a straight/trips on a paired board when we're repping a ton of strength. 86s might peel a flop raise due to deep stacks, but shouldn't even be c-betting this board texture in the first place. Definitely not calling a turn barrel with a mere gutshot either when the board pairs. J8s might play like this, but is also folding to turn barrel when the board pairs due to RIO. I don't see how 77 ever even gets to the river there. 77 either delay c-bets or is one and done on the flop, and is never calling a flop raise.

If we've been pushing him around, if he had 1010, 109s, or 99, he'd just keep flatting and give us rope to hang ourselves. Why would he want to move us off our hand given our aggro/spewy image? There are no bad cards for him OTR, and we might even bluff at scare cards if we were bluffing. If we were semi-bluffing, he's also giving us a chance to catch up and pay him off when we hit our straight. And if we have a real hand, he's going to get paid off anyway. This just smells like a trap. Call flop raise, flat turn, then jam over our bet OTR for almost effectively 200bb.
 
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Figaroo2

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If we've been pushing him around, if he had 1010, 109s, or 99, he'd just keep flatting and give us rope to hang ourselves. Why would he want to move us off our hand given our aggro/spewy image?

If he's getting a bit tilty in my experience hes going to want to fight back and raise if he has the nuts.
He's not trying to move us off a hand he's trying to teach us he can't be pushed around and try to get us to stack off.
I know we don't know he's on tilt but, its been mentioned that we've been pushing him around, we all know tilting players call it off and shove lighter.
 
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If he's getting a bit tilty in my experience hes going to want to fight back and raise if he has the nuts.
He's not trying to move us off a hand he's trying to teach us he can't be pushed around and try to get us to stack off.
I know we don't know he's on tilt but, its been mentioned that we've been pushing him around, we all know tilting players call it off and shove lighter.

There is no mention of him being on tilt, and most TAGs don't fight fire with fire. They just wait until they have a premium hand or a strong hand and let the maniac hang themselves. Just because we push someone around does not mean that they are on tilt.

Imo a lot of "teaching" others that we can't be pushed around is preflop play. Like when a guy keeps stealing my blinds or my button in the CO; I'll keep 3-betting him so he'll back off. But fighting fire with fire against an aggro guy is not the best idea. Almost nobody wants to fight back in fear of being outaggroed. The other day this 240bb guy 7-bet shoved on me with AJo when I had AA at 50NL. Most people, like 95% of the time, are going to respond to maniacs by waiting for a monster and letting the other spewy guy barrel into them.

If he has the nuts and we have a spewy image and knows we can barrel off with air, he's going to slowplay the nuts. Why would he fastplay it if we're bluffing, especially 170bb+ deep? I'm not saying that he was trying to move us off a hand. If we had a bluff, he wants us to keep bluffing. If we have a semi-bluff, he wants us to catch our card or 3-barrel with air. If he we have the 2nd best hand like we do here, he wants us to keep barreling too, get committed to the pot, and wait to jam over our river bet. There's no solid reason for a TAG here to be raising OTT with the nuts.
 
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Feeling like you are facing 10/10. You got your implied odds, but with bad luck.
 
Figaroo2

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So you are ranging him to 3 combos of TT 1 of 99 and 6 of T9 That pretty narrow in a BTN v SB match up at 6max with a little history.
I'm interested to see other's opinions.
 
WVHillbilly

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Generally not a fan of just calling a BTN open with small pairs pre, although admittedly I'm not usually playing deep. As played, I'm never folding the river.
 
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So you are ranging him to 3 combos of TT 1 of 99 and 6 of T9 That pretty narrow in a BTN v SB match up at 6max with a little history.
I'm interested to see other's opinions.

Those are probably the only hands he has here for almost 200bb deep given how the actual hand/betting went out, our perceived image, and deep stacks. Just because it is Blind vs BTN does not mean they are not stacking off OTR without the nuts for 200bb on a paired board.

Online blind vs btn or BvB isn't a common battle until 50NL+ where people are a more positionally aware, and aggressive enough to fight back. I've played a ton of 25NL and a ton of the fighting back was with real hands/monsters. 4-bet/5-bets for example were almost exclusively AA/KK and AK, regardless of position. So many play pretty face-up and don't think about capped ranges, postional battles, etc.

Imo people use blind vs btn and BvB WAY too often as a reason to bluff-catch/stack off too lightly. Even at 50NL and 100NL the BvB and BTN vs blind battles aren't as crazy as many people think they are. We still have a lot of passive players, fish, nits, and recreational players.

In this hand he has 0 bluffs and all value hands OTR. What value hands do we beat OTR for 200bb from a TAG that calls a flop raise, flats a turn bet, and then decides to come over the top of our strong river bet on a paired board? Pretty much zero. If he were let's say a fish who overvalues hands like TP/strong yet vulnerable hands, I'd stack off although not being too happy about it. A TAG here should understand relative hand strength and not be spazzing out with a straight/9x here.

Trip 9s should not be happy about shipping in 200bb on a paired board and when the river brings a possible straight we may have been semi-bluffing with. And if he has J8s/86s he's blocking straight draws so it's pretty suicidal to raise river here on a paired board. We basically have a ton more set combos and he blocks our semi-bluffs.
 
Figaroo2

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Your analysis is sound for a normal hand. This is all about game flow and tension count for me. The poster bothers to mention game flow in the original post so we should be factoring it in here.
I just think you underestimate the effect of "successfully raising someone throughout the night". This would certainly piss me off and I'd be looking to play back.
This is the whole point of picking repeatedly on a weaker reg like this guy eventually they lose patience and have a stupid over reaction, you have to be ready to gii without the nuts when it happens.
It reminds me of what Doyle says in SS2; "no one is allowed to out aggress me at the table, as soon as I have any decent holding we are playing for a big pot."
 
c9h13no3

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He is opening, I have a pair and we are 172bb deep and he is probably making lighter calls due to history. I fold all day 100bb deep. Not sure if call is right since 172bb deep though.
Even 100 bb's deep you recognize that 22 is a bad idea. The deeper stacks get the less likely players are to stack 1-2 pair hands (our target hands with 22). The deeper stacks get, the more important it is to be able to make the nuts. 22 is almost never the nut hand.

To me this is a fold or a 3-bet. And I know you scoff at 3-betting small pairs as a bluff, but it's really quite standard. But here, given history, villain seems like he's not folding easy, so I'd just fold.
 
John A

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Unless you have some read, based on the fact you've been pushing him around a bit, I'd fold the river. In my experience, especially at these stakes, people will rarely bluff off their stack this deep. This is almost always the nuts or close to it.

I don't think 9x is shipping. You're either looking at T9, 99/TT (who for whatever reason didn't re-pop the flop), or 97 (and 97 might even be a stretch and might just call). Probably less than 10% of the time it's a bluff or an over valued straight, 9x..
 
Thinker_145

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I would like to comment on the suggestion that because we have been pushing him away he might be playing back at us. Now that is all fine but if he thinks we are full of it he will just call the river with weaker hands why would he shove to "play back" at us?

Logically speaking I believe we should fold but as you know yourself this is a really tough situation especially with a ticking time bomb.
 
Thinker_145

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Even 100 bb's deep you recognize that 22 is a bad idea. The deeper stacks get the less likely players are to stack 1-2 pair hands (our target hands with 22). The deeper stacks get, the more important it is to be able to make the nuts. 22 is almost never the nut hand.

To me this is a fold or a 3-bet. And I know you scoff at 3-betting small pairs as a bluff, but it's really quite standard. But here, given history, villain seems like he's not folding easy, so I'd just fold.
We don't need to stack him off to justify a 3BB call but its just that it helps that in rare situations it might happen.

2 pair with top pair can pay off big any stack size and of course we can full house cooler straights and flushes with 22. I am sure if you look at the big hands you have won with sets very few among them would be set over set hands.

I am not saying its fine to call here I mostly fold 22 in the SB vs BTN open to 3x or more. Just sharing my viewpoint.
 
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