Originally Posted by Figaroo2
So you are ranging him to 3 combos of TT 1 of 99 and 6 of T9 That pretty narrow in a BTN v SB match up at 6max with a little history.
I'm interested to see other's opinions.
Those are probably the only hands he has here for almost 200bb deep given how the actual hand/betting went out, our perceived image, and deep stacks. Just because it is Blind vs BTN does not mean they are not stacking off OTR without the nuts for 200bb on a paired board.
Online blind vs btn or BvB isn't a common battle until 50NL+ where people are a more positionally aware, and aggressive enough to fight back. I've played a ton of 25NL and a ton of the fighting back was with real hands/monsters. 4-bet/5-bets for example were almost exclusively AA/KK and AK, regardless of position. So many play pretty face-up and don't think about capped ranges, postional battles, etc.
Imo people use blind vs btn and BvB WAY too often as a reason to bluff-catch/stack off too lightly. Even at 50NL and 100NL the BvB and BTN vs blind battles aren't as crazy as many people think they are. We still have a lot of passive players, fish, nits, and recreational players.
In this hand he has 0 bluffs and all value hands OTR. What value hands do we beat OTR for 200bb from a TAG that calls a flop raise, flats a turn bet, and then decides to come over the top of our strong river bet on a paired board? Pretty much zero. If he were let's say a fish who overvalues hands like TP/strong yet vulnerable hands, I'd stack off although not being too happy about it. A TAG here should understand relative hand strength and not be spazzing out with a straight/9x here.
Trip 9s should not be happy about shipping in 200bb on a paired board and when the river brings a possible straight we may have been semi-bluffing with. And if he has J8s/86s he's blocking straight draws so it's pretty suicidal to raise river here on a paired board. We basically have a ton more set combos and he blocks our semi-bluffs.