$25 NLHE 6-max: River jam holding weak two pair fold or bluffcatch?

pokerstars Hand #208036546020: Hold'em No Limit ($0.15/$0.30 USD) - 2020/01/14 17:12:23 ET
Table 'Minkar' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Jgreenwolf18 ($27.07 in chips)
Seat 2: Lomo010181 ($24.19 in chips)
Seat 4: JJLA1000 ($21.66 in chips)
Seat 5: Unsophisticated ($27.28 in chips)(avg lag)
Seat 6: BadHabitPoker ($10.55 in chips)
Unsophisticated: posts small blind $0.15
BadHabitPoker: posts big blind $0.30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jgreenwolf18 [Th Ad]
Jgreenwolf18: raises $0.60 to $0.90
Lomo010181: calls $0.90
JJLA1000: folds
Unsophisticated: calls $0.75
BadHabitPoker: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kc 9s As]
Unsophisticated: checks
Jgreenwolf18: bets $1.43
Lomo010181: folds
Unsophisticated: raises $4.28 to $5.71
man1977uf was removed from the table for failing to post
man1977uf leaves the table
Jgreenwolf18: calls $4.28
*** TURN *** [Kc 9s As] [Td]
Unsophisticated: bets $20.67 and is all-in
Jgreenwolf18: ?

I think an average LAG is probably 3 betting a fair amount with any set here and also with AK. We are beating A9 on the turn and it would be pretty spewy for him to x/r QJ on the flop unless it's exactly QJss here. I probably fold pre since we are UTG and off suit but as played I'm calling turn against described V. He can have Ax, flush draws, combo draws, and smaller two pair enough to be profitable. The odd times he shows up with QJss we can still boat up.

should be a call
9s & QsJs are the only hands that have you beat imo
but since he's overbet jamming Turn I feel it's either 9s, A9s or K9s or a FD like KJs,KTs,JTs etc. Of all those hands only 9s beat you

Alucard said:

should be a call
9s & QsJs are the only hands that have you beat imo
but since he's overbet jamming Turn I feel it's either 9s, A9s or K9s or a FD like KJs,KTs,JTs etc. Of all those hands only 9s beat you

Click to expand...

My rational was call as well and very good hand ranging. That was also my conclusion villain did show up with 99. Although, I believe its still a call as played poss a fold pre but I hate folding pre vs lags who over 3bet so think im just riding this one.

Even against a passive player this a probably a call but sometimes you can justify folding vs a nutty player.
Against any type of aggressive player this is a snap call since they can have A9, K9s and plenty of combo draws that play this way.
You don't even need to add their bluffs there to make this call profitable.
Well played and unlucky.

Your bet is too large on the flop. You can c/c or if you bet bet small because of the multi-way action.

Flop is an easy fold due to being multi-way, turn is harder but seeing his overbet also fold.

It's a tough call to make but it is a call. They could be having AK-AJ or more than likely a straight/flush draw since they didn't re-raise pre. I would call and see the river.

fast_frog said:

Your bet is too large on the flop. You can c/c or if you bet bet small because of the multi-way action.

Flop is an easy fold due to being multi-way, turn is harder but seeing his overbet also fold.

Click to expand...

One rule for me that always held true:

The bet on the turn makes absolutely no sense by the villain. If a bet makes no sense and we have a pretty good holding, we call. Overbets in this spot tries to scare you to fold, and for me it's an easier call.

TheDude6622 said:

One rule for me that always held true:

The bet on the turn makes absolutely no sense by the villain. If a bet makes no sense and we have a pretty good holding, we call. Overbets in this spot tries to scare you to fold, and for me it's an easier call.

Click to expand...

Not on that board and not with multi-way action.

fast_frog said:

Not on that board and not with multi-way action.

Click to expand...

It's heads up on the flop after the bet and call. The turn it was two players. The raise on the flop by the villain is polarizing his hand. The turn basically says I don't have QJ UNLESS it was QJ suited to go with the flush draw. I put the Villain on AK through A9, and we have to call.

I think, I can find a fold on the flop. AT is one of your worst top pair, and I also dont like, that he called from SB. A SB flatting range is way narrower than a BB flatting range, and that makes this situation far worse for us.

I hate putting people on only one hand, but even before I read the results, I was thinking, that he probably had 99. This is exactly the kind of hand, a good player might flat from SB. To good to fold, and not ideal for a 3-bet bluff, because it has no relevant blockers.

On the turn it is of course really rough, because now we have two pair, and if he somehow is on a draw, his equity dropped a lot. Now we pretty much only lose to 99 and QsJs, and AT is now better than AQ or AJ. So if I saw the turn, I would also make the call.

TheDude6622 said:

It's heads up on the flop after the bet and call. The turn it was two players. The raise on the flop by the villain is polarizing his hand. The turn basically says I don't have QJ UNLESS it was QJ suited to go with the flush draw. I put the Villain on AK through A9, and we have to call.

Click to expand...

Hero cbet into two players thus with a stronger range so villain's raising range will automatically be much stronger. It should be that way theoretically and it is that way in practice, if anything people are probably under-raising (that holds true in heads up so should be even more true in mw)

Also as someone else says his range is stronger to begin with cold calling from the SB. You're just never going to see any one pair hand on the flop --> easy fold.

This is an easy snap call. You described him as a lag and any competent player would be 3betting pre flop with AA KK AK 99. Some tighter players may just flat 99 but most would be squeezing.
As most have said your cbet is on the large size. However I think your call is fine, people who advocate folding to the flop raise are playing far too tight. His value raising range is extremely narrow and is more likely to be pair and flush draw combos.
One of the main value combos he will have on the flop is a9 so when you turn a better two pair I think it's a very easy call.