$25 NLHE 6-max: River bet sizing

IPlay

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Readless 25NL Zone on Bovada

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 91.36 BB (VPIP: 37.73, PFR: 8.92, 3Bet Preflop: 4.13, hands: 179,708)
BB: 88.08 BB (VPIP: 26.75, PFR: 6.09, 3Bet Preflop: 4.47, Hands: 183,892)
UTG: 162.76 BB (VPIP: 26.96, PFR: 12.57, 3Bet Preflop: 3.49, Hands: 182,033)
MP: 200.16 BB (VPIP: 28.07, PFR: 12.87, 3Bet Preflop: 3.18, Hands: 178,693)
Hero (CO): 284.48 BB
BTN: 51.68 BB (VPIP: 34.28, PFR: 14.82, 3Bet Preflop: 4.20, Hands: 177,240)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:heart: T:diamond:

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) T:club: A:spade: 6:club:
UTG checks, Hero bets 6.88 BB, UTG calls 6.88 BB

Turn: (23.16 BB, 2 players) T:heart:
UTG checks, Hero bets 14.08 BB, UTG calls 14.08 BB

River: (51.32 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:
UTG checks, Hero ???

What sizing do you go for on the river?(137BB effective behind)
 
Trabendo_daze

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So I think it comes down to what we think villain's range consists of here - and I think he's gotta be pretty weak most of the time.


After he check-calls twice on flop and turn I think we're looking at club draws and weak Ax most of the time and Tx very rarely (seen as we have the other T).

Against this range I like betting small - like 24BB or something like that. We can credibly rep some missed draws and we are likely to get paid off by something like A3-AJ which are really the only hands that he has which will call us here.

I think 6x folds turn and the amount of Tx is quite negligible compared to Ax since it's so heavily blocked.

What do you think IPlay?
 
TimovieMan

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The flush draw whiffed, so I'd either go for the bluffy looking 120% pot (60bb) or for the weak looking 30-40% pot (18bb).
Depends on whether or not villain can make hero calls and whether or not we've been bluffy before. Without reads/image, I'd opt for the smaller bet.

Edit: Bovada Zone. Go for the smaller bet.
 
IPlay

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For sure 0 reads here and why make a smaller bet because of Bovada Zone? I would assume the opposite.

I do agree with 6x folding the turn so we discount those.

Villain l/c from UTG so I assume his range is 22-66, premium connectors and suited Aces.

I think his range by river is, Ax, 10x, or busted draws. So the question is what is the EV of each sizing? Shoving 2.7x pot is always getting called by 10x and rarely Ax(Got to assume villain is kind of fishy after his UTG l/c and might not be able to fold an A after all draws missed)

A smaller Overbet like Tim suggested is probably getting called by all 10x, Ax.

And the small bet is getting called by everything but missed draws and I doubt villain is x/raising as a bluff once I bet this sizing.

So I think our options are Shoving, 120% pot or 80% pot if we think villains are folding Ax to the 120%(I don't think so)

So what is higher EV, 120%/80% pot or shoving?

Just to clarify I think a small bet is kind of pointless because he is folding busted draws anyway and I think I can get more value out of Ax with a polarizing river bet. The one argument you can make for a smaller sizing is that villain should raise any 10x he has at this point and we can GII.

Duggs, come drop some knowledge on this one!! :D
 
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I'd just bet 60% pot again, like around 32bb. I'm sure he'll call this bet with a weak Ax hand, especially since there are a lot of busted draws on this board texture.

If you wanted to get creative, you could try just ripping it with either a pot-sized bet or an overbet shove. There's a chance the villain will hero-call this with Ax, thinking you've got a busted draw, but then I think that a 60% pot bet is more likely to encourage the villain to call with Ax. Plus I'd expect the villain to check-raise the river with Tx, so you should be able to get all the money in if he has Tx just by betting 60% pot.

And I actually think that the villain will fold Ax to a pot-sized bet every now and again, despite all the busted draws.
 
Trabendo_daze

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I think the assumption that Ax is calling all bets is a bit off and should change our analysis. I guess that's the crucial assumption. Don't really know how we determine that
 
TimovieMan

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For sure 0 reads here and why make a smaller bet because of Bovada Zone? I would assume the opposite.
Without reads or image, I prefer the smaller bet because there's a much larger chance it'll get called.
When I realized it's Bovada Zone, I realized there ARE no reads or image. So I bet smaller to appear weak and get more calls. It could also invite another T (or even air) to raise us.
I just figure it's going to be higher EV than overbetting...
 
IPlay

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He limp called UTG, called flop and called turn. River is a blank. In theory if he is always calling 60% pot with Ax, he should call 80% pot. Correct?

Am I far off in thinking villain is probably on the fishy station side with the way this hand has been played?

Hero can have a lot of bluffs on this river so I at least think my bet should be polarized and I am missing some value by making a middlish bet.
 
Trabendo_daze

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I don't think we can make any conclusions about a player's style based off of one zone hand. I also don't think that a player calling 60% implies that they will call 80%. If we can make that implication, why can't we make like the implication that calling 60% implies calling 150%? I just don't follow. It's just like, my opinion, man and I think this is very subjective so idk let's get a bunch of people with more experience for knowledge of population tendencies.
 
IPlay

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I don't think we can make any conclusions about a player's style based off of one zone hand. I also don't think that a player calling 60% implies that they will call 80%. If we can make that implication, why can't we make like the implication that calling 60% implies calling 150%? I just don't follow. It's just like, my opinion, man and I think this is very subjective so idk let's get a bunch of people with more experience for knowledge of population tendencies.

Villains range is pretty face up here and insist of 10x, Ax, and busted draws.

Busted draws are never calling.

10x is calling whatever.

But Ax is where it becomes tricky and where the concept of "If he is calling 10bbs he is calling 11bbs so if we are value betting, 11bbs makes more sense." That concept is very alive here and brings up the question, if he is calling 60% pot(30bbs) why wouldn't he call 80% pot(40bbs) with his Ax holdings? Any Ax in villains range is bluff catching and shouldn't fold this river unless I make an absurd sizing.
 
mbrenneman0

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I think for every big blind higher you go l, there's a slightly smaller chance of him calling. I'd go for 1/3 of the pot. His limp call makes me think weak passive, and he's probably calling any small bet and folding any big bet, unless he has a smaller boat in which case he would raise a smaller bet on the river and we could then shove for even more value than a 2/3 pot bet

Isn't zeebos theorem where no body is capable of folding a boat? The question is just whether or not he has one and im thinking, chances are no. He probably has kq or qj or something.
 
Trabendo_daze

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@IPlay my point was just that there has to be somewhere on the continuum where he no longer calls, right? Your logic says assume he calls NBB. Then, he must call (N+1)BB. Okay, but where do we stop? Because similarly if he calls (N+1)BB he must call (N+2)BB and eventually (N+2311553152)BB?
 
IPlay

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@IPlay my point was just that there has to be somewhere on the continuum where he no longer calls, right? Your logic says assume he calls NBB. Then, he must call (N+1)BB. Okay, but where do we stop? Because similarly if he calls (N+1)BB he must call (N+2)BB and eventually (N+2311553152)BB?

I agree there is a breaking point but I think 60% and 80% are the same here. Once he x/calls flop and turn I think his Ax calls 60% and 80% at almost the same frequency where if I bet pot/overbet it may reduce that frequency by lets say 20% but since I bet a larger amount how is my EV effected?

We are betting against a range that contains top pair+ or air. 60% pot would be decent if we were wanting value from non top pair hands but that isn't the case here.
 
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Trabendo_daze

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I just think that a non-trivial amount of Ax (like A2-A6) folds a decent amount of the time to like 60-80%, but maybe that's not the case. Idk for sure this is all really a feel/guessing game, especially on zone. Idk maybe you're right man, Idk idk idk
 
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Although I do agree that he will lean towards the fishy calling station side of the spectrum, I don't think that the average player is too happy calling a 50bb bet with a weak Ax hand on an ATT66 board. If he at least had hands like AJ+ in his range, he might be more inclined to get sticky and call a huge river bet. He could say "hurr I haz Ace King!" and call off half his stack. But with the junk he probably has (A2-A9 most likely), there is a decent chance that he will just give up to a huge bet, even though he hates folding top pair.

I think that anything above 60% pot will slowly attract more and more folds.
 
mbrenneman0

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I think he'd be more likely to have a busted draw though than Ax. I think there's more value in a very small bet here because he might actually call a small bet with a busted draw. So for half the bet size we double or triple his range. Just my thought, maybe I'm thinking about it the wrong way.
 
IPlay

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Just gonna let this mellow and get more responses but it overwhelmingly seems like you guys think 40-60% pot is the sweet spot for max value. The one benefit that I see with this sizing that I didn't think about before is that he raises all 10x against that sizing but 80%-120% pot might just make villain flat his 10x since he is really only getting called by chops/better when he x/raises against that sizing.
 
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I think he'd be more likely to have a busted draw though than Ax. I think there's more value in a very small bet here because he might actually call a small bet with a busted draw. So for half the bet size we double or triple his range. Just my thought, maybe I'm thinking about it the wrong way.

I don't think he ever calls with a busted draw. And there's a lot of Ax hands in his range when you consider all the A2o-A9o combos out there. Our aim is to maximise value from those sticky Ax hands.

Just gonna let this mellow and get more responses but it overwhelmingly seems like you guys think 40-60% pot is the sweet spot for max value. The one benefit that I see with this sizing that I didn't think about before is that he raises all 10x against that sizing but 80%-120% pot might just make villain flat his 10x since he is really only getting called by chops/better when he x/raises against that sizing.

Well I'd say 60-80% pot is ideal. I think that 40% is missing out on value.
 
IPlay

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Yeah if I went for the smaller sizing it would be between 50-65%. I'm starting to agree with you guys that it may be the optimal sizing here mainly because of the last point I brought up about 10x raising against that sizing vs 80-120%
 
John A

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63% to get Ax to call, and hope for a Tx shove.

Bet a little more on the turn on zone in this spot. Draws, Ax, and Tx are never folding, so you get max value.
 
IPlay

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That's amazingly specific. How'd you come up with this?

Right, haha.

I shoved and he called with JsTs but I didn't feel good about it. I kind of figured all draws will fold, Ax will call a small bet so I might as well maximize from 10x but in the moment I didn't think about 10x x/raising so I'm glad I posted this.

Really weird hand from villain to flat turn and x river because I probably x/back majority of my Ax hands besides AQ/AK and we are super deep so doesn't he want to start getting the money in with a raise on the turn? If he is this passive is he even x/raising river? Lol
 
Figaroo2

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I have a solid value hand so I would have made a good solid value bet 70-75%. That's only 35bb here so plenty of room for him to spazz shove as a bluff which total unknowns will try and pull off more than usual.
But shoving isn't bad. .You are picking up an extra 137bb. if you think he calls a shove 1 in 5 that is better than betting half pot and getting it called all five times.
 
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