$25 NLHE 6-max: re-raised with small set in 3bet pot

PokerNinja91

PokerNinja91

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Hi Guys,

This is a tricky spot I just encountered at 25Nl ZOOM. No notable reads on villain, seemed like a TAG reg but not enough hands really to make any big assumptions. Looking back at the hand logically, I think should be folding (Easy to say once you see the outcome!). I think I reluctantly put the chips in because of the number of draws on the board. A hand like 10-Qc makes sense but I don't think he's going to 3bet that from MP vs UTG, although again, can't be sure. AKs also possible but then why didn't he bet flop?
Which leads me to the question... Can I really fold here? I mean as soon as he re-raised I immediately thought KK, given his flop check. But then saw the two spades on the flop and thought it's unlikely he would check that or AA for that matter. The only real hand that I'm losing to is the one that he showed up with.
Any thoughts welcome. :)

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2850483
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $74.76
SB: $19.40
BB: $24.22
Hero (UTG): $32.29
MP: $112.08
CO: $29.69

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 4♦ 4♣
Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, CO raises to $2.25, BTN calls $2.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($7.10) 2♠ 4♠ K♣(3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($7.10) J♣(3 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises to $11.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $30.04 all in, CO calls $15.94 all in

River: ($61.98) 8♦ (2 players - 2 are all in)

Villain shows JhJs and wins with a set of Jacks
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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The hand is fine, imo. This is going to be AA or AsKs often enough for your play to be +EV.


In fact, if his range is exactly JJ/KK/AA/AsKs, then you still have over 50% equity on that turn. Nice hand, imo.
 
C

CactusCat

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AA and AK would always bet. Even AK of spades would probably bet; in terms of hand-reading, the check behind on the flop indicates to me AQ, QQ, JJ. Maybe tens.

On the turn, very few hands make sense. AQ of spades would probably c-bet the flop with the nut flush draw and a favorable board that would get a lot of folds, so this drastically reduces the likelihood that he's semibluffing the turn with a draw. QQ no longer makes sense now either.

The only thing you're beating I think is KJ, which would possibly check behind the flop for pot control and out of fear of being dominated, but then comes to life when he hits top two pair. AJ of spades might want to get it in with second pair + nut flush draw + one overcard. But would he reraise you preflop with these riskier hands? If you think no, then... you have to fold. But if he would, then you played it perfectly.

So this is a call on the turn probably and then you can decide to call the river. 20% of the time a third spade will peel, and it will either freeze the action and if he still bets, you can legitimately consider folding, or you can turn your hand into a bluff and just shove, because again, his check on the flop means he almost never has the nut flush draw.

If you get it in on the turn, that's it, but on certain rivers (only flushes I guess) you can represent the flush and shove for $18 and offer him a fairly bad price to make the hero call.
 
John A

John A

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Well, you're going to be behind his 3-bet calling range once we remove pure bluffs. The rest of his range you're not doing as well against, but you have the odds to shove once you bet the flop and were raised. You're probably about 40/60 or maybe 45/55 at that point. You're looking squarely at JJ/AcQc/AcTc/QcTc, maybe some other turned club draw or 2.
 
WVHillbilly

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Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 4♦ 4♣
Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, CO raises to $2.25, BTN calls $2.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Imo the bolded above is where you messed up this hand. Stacks are not deep enough here to set mine. You're going to be OOP and his range is going to be VERY strong since he's 3betting an UTG open. Just fold to the 3bet and move on.

As played pre, you can't fold.
 
Aces2w1n

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I'd fold to 3bet pre, we aint deep enough to call and unlikely to get paid off.

1. Unlikely to get paid off.
2. Miss the flop a lot.
3. 4bet light is an option if you think your villain 3bet lights and we can put our villain in bad spots. but generally setmining OOP is a big NO (pure bluff then) but hey that's poker!
 
M

MinhANguyen

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I expect to see a set here very often. KK that is trapping OTF since it's pretty dry for a 3-bet pot and because it blocks a ton of our calling ranges, or JJ that checked behind flop. We might see KJs, but that's very unlikely. Most people don't 3-bet UTG light and would probably just call with that hand. KQs I see flats and 3-bets, but not KJs. I gave him a range of KK/JJ/one combo of KJs, and we have really bad equity. We have 12%, and if we take out KJs, we're dead to one out.

He is not doing this with AA or AK. Those would bet the flop to get values from Kx or flush draws, and are not going nuts on the turn. I don't expect to see AQcc, Q10cc, ATcc very often either due to population tendencies to be super passive with combo draws. Most people aren't even 3-betting Q10cc/A10cc anyway, let alone vs UTG. He also has position and can realize his equity cheaply by just flatting, and he's against 2 strong ranges in a 3-bet pot. I think raising with a draw here is pretty ambitious, and our opponent should know that. He also has the BTN to act behind him, which makes it even less likely he'd make a move on a wet board with a draw. The BTN and we have a lot of Kx in our range, JJ, sometimes two pair, which are never folding.

I have never folded a set, but I think I might nit-fold this hand and be pretty annoyed about it. I think pre is fine. Only calling because it's multi-way, we're getting a decent price, and because all three of us are 120bb though.
 
PokerNinja91

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I agree with all above except I'm never folding preflop I don't think. Given that it is multiway and I'm getting a good price.
If villain has AA for instance, we are going to get atleast two streets of value on this board and almost always get his full stack.
 
IPlay

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I snap fold turn and don't even think twice about it.
 
Aces2w1n

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What is a good rule to go by when calling with small pairs in this situation especially multiway?
 
M

MinhANguyen

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Preferably, initial raiser 3-bets us 3x and not 3.5x+. At least 120bb minimum! Of all 3+ players, if there are 4+ including us I'm always calling. Be ready to get creative postflop to get paid off maximally based on board texture and not letting free cards peel off based on the board. Also check-raising/check-jamming multiway signals huge strength multiway unless it's a super wet board, and Villain might find a hero-fold.

I don't recommend getting into these kind of spots until your postflop is more on the solid side and you can hand read better.
 
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